2012 Fantasy Baseball: Is it time to stop calling Ryan Vogelsong a fluke?
He is sabermetrics’ public enemy number one. He came out of nowhere and proved to be one of the team’s most valuable assets. One of the bay area’s best stories last year is off to another great start again. For the San Francisco Giants’ underrated and unheralded number fout starter, Ryan Vogelsong is quietly proving all his critics wrong.
Sometimes a player defies traditional statistics and continues to trend off the breakout year. In the preseason, ZiPS projected a 4.18 ERA over 153.0 innings with a decrease in nearly every number across the board. But, in Vogelsong’s case, he’s pitching just as well as last year’s out-of-nowhere season. So far he has a 2.23 ERA over 96.2 IPs, 67 Ks and a 1.15 WHIP. In fantasy leagues, he’s already one of the biggest steals this season. According to MockDraftCentral.com, his average draft position was the 224th pick. But he’s proving to be more consistent than fluky.
However, the red flags with Vogelsong are numerous. It shouldn’t be crazy to assume the magical ride will end at any time. This is a starting pitcher who before last year last pitched in the majors in 2006 for Pittsburgh. His BB rate is close to league average at 3.06 BB/9. His WHIP in his breakout year was near the league average again at 1.25. In addition, he doesn’t strike out batters at an elite rate. His 6.24 K/9 is around what it was last year, and it is below league average.
He’s also been incredibly lucky. His BABIP isn’t incredibly low, but his home/away splits are what make it better than your everyday SP. At home, his BABIP is an amazing .227. When he’s away from the comfy confines of San Francisco, it’s .289. He has an unsustainable LOB% of 84.6%, and his xFIP is over two full runs higher than his ERA (4.50).
So, what’s so special about a guy who could potentially be pitching 4.00+ ERA ball, a below-average WHIP, and a low K-rate? This is where Vogelsong is sabermetrics’ worst enemy. First, the ridiculous BABIP at home makes sense: he pitches in one of the best pitcher’s parks. His elite and “unsustainable” LOB% is on-par with his average in the breakout year, so it’s already been done.
So keep riding the mystery. He’s San Francisco’s MVP, best story, etc. The trend should continue and buyers should pay the premium to get an elite ERA and consistent performer for their staff. He’s not an ace, as evidenced by his K-rate and his WHIP, but you know what you get from him. It’s no fluke, Ryan Vogelsong is the real deal.
Sometimes a player defies traditional statistics and continues to trend off the breakout year. In the preseason, ZiPS projected a 4.18 ERA over 153.0 innings with a decrease in nearly every number across the board. But, in Vogelsong’s case, he’s pitching just as well as last year’s out-of-nowhere season. So far he has a 2.23 ERA over 96.2 IPs, 67 Ks and a 1.15 WHIP. In fantasy leagues, he’s already one of the biggest steals this season. According to MockDraftCentral.com, his average draft position was the 224th pick. But he’s proving to be more consistent than fluky.
However, the red flags with Vogelsong are numerous. It shouldn’t be crazy to assume the magical ride will end at any time. This is a starting pitcher who before last year last pitched in the majors in 2006 for Pittsburgh. His BB rate is close to league average at 3.06 BB/9. His WHIP in his breakout year was near the league average again at 1.25. In addition, he doesn’t strike out batters at an elite rate. His 6.24 K/9 is around what it was last year, and it is below league average.
He’s also been incredibly lucky. His BABIP isn’t incredibly low, but his home/away splits are what make it better than your everyday SP. At home, his BABIP is an amazing .227. When he’s away from the comfy confines of San Francisco, it’s .289. He has an unsustainable LOB% of 84.6%, and his xFIP is over two full runs higher than his ERA (4.50).
So, what’s so special about a guy who could potentially be pitching 4.00+ ERA ball, a below-average WHIP, and a low K-rate? This is where Vogelsong is sabermetrics’ worst enemy. First, the ridiculous BABIP at home makes sense: he pitches in one of the best pitcher’s parks. His elite and “unsustainable” LOB% is on-par with his average in the breakout year, so it’s already been done.
So keep riding the mystery. He’s San Francisco’s MVP, best story, etc. The trend should continue and buyers should pay the premium to get an elite ERA and consistent performer for their staff. He’s not an ace, as evidenced by his K-rate and his WHIP, but you know what you get from him. It’s no fluke, Ryan Vogelsong is the real deal.
Written by Tim Lee exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Follow Tim on Twitter at @SHBL_Tim.
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(May 13, 2012 – Source: Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images North America)
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