2012 Fantasy Baseball: Mat Latos & the Cincinnati Reds starting rotation preview
The Reds gave up four players, including veteran starter Edinson Volquez and a few top prospects, to get Mat Latos from San Diego. At only age 24, Latos has electric stuff as shown by his 413 strikeouts in 429 career innings and a 3.37 ERA in 72 career starts.
Latos has been durable, making 31 starts in each of the past two seasons.
There have been concerns about Latos including worries that the Padres overused him early in his career. More than 400 innings pitched before turning 24 is a lot and San Diego seemed to annually debate shutting him down early once it was eliminated from contention.
Still, he's worth a bundle in fantasy baseball even though moving from Petco Park to Cinci could result in an increased ERA. He should get more wins with the Reds as well. He's an ace-in-the-making and is worth an early pick in all fantasy formats.
Latos could be joined by another heavily-hyped prospect making his debut in the rotation this year if the Reds follow through on the plan to make Aroldis Chapman a starter. He’s been sensational out of the bullpen with a 3.27 ERA in 69 appearances, but he was brought to Cinci to be a starter.
If he does get a spot in the rotation, he doesn’t become a fantasy stud right away. He will almost certainly have his innings limited because he has thrown barely 60 major-league innings, so don’t expect him to toss 200 this year.
I think he’d likely start out throwing about six innings a night and could be skipped a couple times to give him a break during the season when the Reds have a day off. The hype surrounding him will likely make him go higher in drafts than he should, so be careful jumping in to soon on Chapman.
Johnny Cueto finally lived up to his billing as a staff ace last year when he 2.31 ERA in 24 starts, although that resulted in only nine wins. He dealt with a strained lat late in the season, but should be fine for spring training. Cueto's ERA has dropped in each of his past three seasons and although last year's number will be tough to beat, he should be around 3.00 with more wins this year, so a solid fantasy starter.
Bronson Arroyo has become as hard to predict as any pitcher in the National League. His ERA went down nearly a full point from 2008 to 2009 and then stayed about the same in 2010 before rising more than a point to 5.07 last year.
You have to think last year was a bit fluky and he should be back around 4.00 this year and back into double digit victories.
Mike Leake could be one of the most improved pitchers this year because the Reds may finally lift the innings cap they seemed to put on him during his first two seasons. His 12 wins and 3.86 ERA last year were nice and I think those numbers get even better this season.
Homer Bailey has never lived up to his hype as a top prospect. In five seasons, his ERA has never been below 4.40 and his career ERA is getting close to 5.00. At 25, there is time for a turnaround and thus he’s worth a cheap flyer late in a draft or auction, but don’t expect much considering his track record.
Jeff Francis signed with the Reds, but there does not look to be any room in the rotation for him. The former top prospect of the Rockies has battled inconsistency and injury, so he’s got no fantasy value at this time.
Sam LeCure looks to be back in the bullpen this year, but his value increases if the Reds need him in the rotation.
Written by Steve Mims exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Follow Steve on Twitter @nwsportscards
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