2012 Fantasy Baseball Peckin’ Order: My top five Outfielders NOT to draft
It’s also going to be very difficult to pass on these players because of their rankings, and their ability. Each of these players has the ability to repeat, but hasn’t shown enough of a consistent mark to make me believe that they can do it. Their talent levels are high; we have players who have been in the league for more than a decade, and those who were in the minors for what seemed like a decade. We’ll see players who for nearly a decade showed mediocre numbers only to outshine every other year he has ever had, and because of this these players are moving up draft boards. But, I am here to tell you be cautious, be hesitant, and if you can afford to let these guys slide, please do.
The Five Outfielders I am staying away from in 2012:
Desmond Jennings (OF, TB) Spent five years in the minor leagues before the Rays gave him a shot, and it wasn’t because there were players at the major league level better than him in the way. Jennings finished his minor league career with more than 2220 plate appearances an obnoxiously high number for someone who at one point was rated the #6 prospect in all of baseball. Unfortunately Jennings who was rumored to have some discipline and attitude issues found himself regressing on the prospect chart twice, going from 59th best to 80th best from 2008 to 2009 and then again in 2010 to 2011 when he went from the 6th best to the 22nd best. Jennings was finally given a major role in 2011 and he stepped up. With 10 homers, and 20 stolen bases in just under 300 plate appearances, Jennings finished with a .259 batting average but had an on base percentage nearly .100 points higher which is promising specifically for his stolen base numbers. But, in the end something needs to be said for his enormously long minor league career, the ups and downs, the regressions, and the terrible attitude.
Curtis Granderson (OF, NYY) mashed his career year in 2011 with 41 homers, 11 more than his previous career high, and he drove in 119 runs, nearly 50 more than his career high. His average, on base percentage, and stolen base numbers were all better than his previous two seasons, but his run total of 136 was 60 more than he had in 2010. The Yankee Stadium short porch is definitely in this lefty’s favor, but the size of his increase was so much it makes me believe that a regression is in the works. Granderson may continue to hit his 28 homer, 81 RBI, 17 stolen base 162-game averages and if he does it will be a good season for him, but it will be a huge drop off from his 2011 numbers causing him to really be worth a later round pick than an earlier round.
2011 wasn’t very kind to a few Red Sox players, and none more apparent than that of Carl Crawford (OF, BOS). Prior to the last season I believed that Crawford was a buy high player and I wasn’t alone as Crawford was going in the first round of many fantasy drafts. Then the 2011 season began and so did a tumultuous year for the former Rays draft pick. Crawford missed 32 games last year the most he had missed since 2008 and the second most in his full time career. While that may not seem like a lot of missed time, all of his total numbers from the previous year had drastic changes including just 18 stolen bases and a .255 average both worst of his career. His 11 homers were tied for the third worst total of his career and 56 runs batted in was just two more than his career low. 2012 isn’t looking much better for Crawford, he is already injured and has already had surgery on his wrist and has already had a setback. A lot of writers are ranking him as the 21st overall OF, but with his terrible 2011 numbers and continuous injury concerns he should be dropping further down the list.
Melky Cabrera (OF, SF) has found himself at yet again another team. In the last 3 seasons Melky will have played for three different teams, and the fourth in his career. 2011 was very favorable to Melky who saw career numbers in Runs Scored, Hits, Doubles, Homer Runs, Runs Batted In, Stolen Bases, and Average. Prior to 2011, Melky was averaging 9 HR, 68 Runs, 61 RBI, and a .262 average, which makes his numbers last season mind boggling. Melky is now with the Giants, a historically bad offensive team in a historically large ball park that will easily hinder Melky’s performance in 2012. Due to this he should be off everyone’s draft board.
There is absolutely no denying Drew Stubbs (OF, CIN) value when it comes to stolen bases, but that’s about it. A lot of fantasy experts and baseball analysts believed the youngster would have the potential to hit 30 homers and steal 40 bases, but that just isn’t happening. A lot of that may be from his hit it or miss it reality so far. Drew Stubbs has increased in the number of strike outs in each of his three seasons in the majors so far including being the batter with the most strike outs in baseball in 2011 with 205. That is an astronomical number which only takes away from his ability to put the ball in play. If you are absolutely desperate for stolen bases Stubbs will help you, but his .243 batting average, his 44 runs batted in, won’t help your team and if you’re in a league that takes away the more strike outs you have, he absolutely needs to be left alone.
The outfield position is a bit tricky to evaluate because so many of them have so much ability for stolen bases or power. Problem is a lot of these players are only one tool guys and while that tool may be marvelous the others are so bad that they aren’t reliable enough to have a starting role on your fantasy roster.
Written by Justin Mandaro exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com
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(September 15, 2011 – Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images North America)
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