2012 Fantasy Baseball Prospect Cage Match: Miguel Sano vs Nolan Arenado
This week’s match features a battle of the best third basemen in the minor leagues: Twins prospect Miguel Sano vs Rockies prospect Nolan Arenado (sorry Mike Olt).
In case you missed it, I’ve also written up a shortstop cage match on Billy Hamilton vs Manny Machado, and a pitcher cage match on Trevor Bauer vs Taijuan Walker.
The Offensive Tools:
Sano: The outlook on 19-year-old Miguel Sano is similar to the outlook on Billy Hamilton from a tools perspective despite the two of them being polar opposite types of hitters. That is, both of them derive the majority of their value from one tool. Obviously Hamilton’s value comes from his speed, and Sano’s comes from his incredible light tower power.
Last year in the Appalachian League (which is a level below Low A often called ‘Rookie Ball’), Sano proved everything that scouts were saying about his power was true and more, slugging 20 homers in just 66 games while sporting a .637 slugging on his .292 average. However, Sano continued along the traditional power-hitter path last year by struggling with his strikeouts (26.3% K Rate) and not walking enough (7.8% BB Rate) to go along with his absurd power.
This season, Sano’s power has hardly been less prodigious despite jumping up a full level to Low A Beloit, as he has slugged a nearly identical .636 with 8 homers in 30 games. The great news for Sano (and, of course, his fantasy owners) is that he appears to be making progress with his plate discipline issues, as he currently sports a 36:20 K/BB ratio.
At his peak, Miguel Sano could be a solid average guy (.280 or so) with a little more value in OBP leagues while also the best power hitter in the game. His only issue is his speed, which is well below average, and Sano is only going to get bigger and slower as he ages and grows.
Arenado: Rockies prospect Nolan Arenado is a rare player in many ways, but perhaps his most impressive feat is his consistency from level to level. In the last 4 years, from ages 18 to his current 21, Arenado has moved up exactly one level per year, every year from Rookie Ball to Double A.
He has spanned between a batting average of .296 to .308 at every level, has averaged an extra base hit in the range of every 7.4 to 13.0 plate appearances at every level, and sported a K rate under 15.5% at every level (this would be much lower, but he’s struck out a relatively large amount in his small sample in double A so far). Nobody questions Arenado’s batting average potential, which should be well above average and give him the ability to hit .300 almost every year.
Power-wise, there is a wider range of projections for Arenado. Throughout his career, he’s been a guy who has been more of a long doubles hitter than home run hitter, but that was mitigated in the hitter-friendly California league last year as he launched 20 homers in 134 games, and Coors Field isn’t far behind that environment. I’d say projecting him for 20-25 homers annually with the upside for a little more is well within reason.
Like Sano, Arenado can’t run at all; the two of them will both likely be a near-0 in the steals category every year.
The Edge: Sano by a solid amount. Who would you rather have, a player with great power and a solid average, or a player with a great average and solid power? I’ll take the power every time, those prospects are rare; cheap average guys are findable (see Michael Young for details).
The Position:
Sano: Sano is already a former-shortstop, and more likely than not he’ll eventually be a former-third basemen. Miguel Sano’s problem is similar to Mac from It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia’s Problem: he’s got a keen ability to cultivate mass. Right now, Sano isn’t absolutely atrocious at third, he’s merely bad, but the issue is he’s only 19 years old and has a body that is going to get much, much bigger. His body’s growth will be great for turning on a 97 MPH Justin Verlander fastball and sending it into the right field bleachers, but it likely won’t help when he dives to his left from third base and is 2 feet short on an otherwise routine groundball. There’s a very, very good chance (over 50%) that Sano ends up in the outfield or at first base.
Arenado: Arenado transitioned from a player who most scouts thought would have to move off of third base in the big leagues to a defender who scouts believe can provide positive value fielding third base in the bigs. There’s probably a 90% chance at this point that Arenado sticks at third.
The Edge: Arenado. Everyone would rather have a third basemen than an outfielder or first basemen.
The Team:
Sano: The Twins have a questionable future at this point. The team’s once-great core of M&M (Mauer and Morneau) now appears to be a detriment rather than a strength long-term, and, thus far in its existence, Target Field has played as an extreme pitchers park. None of this is good for Sano, although his power is so preposterous that he’ll probably be able to hit 40+ bombs anywhere if he makes it to his peak.
Arenado: On nearly the opposite side of the spectrum sits Arenado, who not only gets to beat up on national league pitching with the Rockies, he also gets to do so in Coors Field while sitting next to Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez in the lineup. There really isn’t a better situation for a hitter in baseball, especially one who has impeccable average skills but is going to need some help in the power department.
The Edge: Arenado by a ton. One of the best ball parks in the league while facing NL pitching in a good lineup vs a bad ballpark with a bad lineup in the AL. Seems simple.
The Proximity:
Sano: Miguel Sano is a 19 year old who is having his first taste of A-ball. Yeah, he’s been absolutely crushing it, but it is important to remember just how far away he is from the big leagues, or even double A. He could get the call at the earliest in mid-2014.
Arenado: Arenado could probably do fine in the big leagues right now, and sometime around the All-Star break he’ll likely get his chance to prove that.
The Edge: Arenado by a ton.
The Verdict: Tie goes to the power hitter Miguel Sano.
Take this stat line: .306 AVG, 26 HR, 35 Doubles, 80 Runs, 93 RBI, 1 SB, 6.9% BB Rate, 11.0% K Rate. That sounds almost exactly like what I’m projecting Nolan Arenado to do at the major league level, and it also happens to be Aramis Ramirez’s stat line last season. With that line, Ramirez finished as the 48th best player in fantasy and the 4th best third basemen (in a year with a ton of third base injuries). Arenado I’d say has about a 40% chance to blossom into that player, maybe a 10% chance to well exceed that and a 50% chance to never live up to those stats.
Here’s another stat line: .268 AVG, 47 HR, 94 Runs, 136 RBI, 1 SB. That sounds like around what I’d project Sano for if he hits his upside, and it also happens to be what used to be considered a typical Ryan Howard season (2007 to be exact). Placing those stats into last year’s player rater, we’d get a player who finished somewhere in the top 20 (it’s impossible to figure it out exactly where, as no player in the majors had 47 HR or 136 RBI last year). There is probably a 15% chance Sano lives up to stats along those lines, a 5% chance he will exceed them and an 80% chance he disappoints and doesn’t come close to those numbers.
Now that leads to the essential question of this entire article: what would you rather have, a 50% chance at an Aramis Ramirez—a good, not great player for your team who is a top 50 guy, or a 20% chance at a Ryan Howard—a difference maker for your fantasy franchise, a guy who can lead major league baseball in more than one category and lead your team to the championship with consistency?
The battle of Sano vs Arenado is a very, very close one, and both players are immensely valuable as prospects right now in any keeper or dynasty league. However, as I said last week: I like to swing for the fences with my prospects rather than take safer, high likelihood guys, and that makes Miguel Sano just slightly more valuable to me than Nolan Arenado.
Choosing a prospect is a lot like playing the lottery: it’s (mostly) luck-based, trying to pick a winner almost always backfires and you rarely, if ever, win. On those infrequent occasions that you do cash in a jackpot, that everything does go according to plan, and your life feels like it’s stuck in a romantic comedy, what would you prefer: winning a 5 thousand dollar scratch-off, or a 200 million dollar power ball?
Sometimes in life, it’s worth it to gamble, and spending your last dollar on a Miguel Sano lottery ticket rather than a Nolan Arenado scratch-off is just one of those times. Even though the majority of the time the scratch-off is going to do better, that mega millions ticket is so much more valuable when it does cash in that I would go back and play it each and every time.
(July 9, 2011 – Source: Christian Petersen/Getty Images North America)
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