2012 Fantasy Baseball: The San Diego Padres Starting Rotation Preview
More recently Petco threw Aaron Harang in a time machine back to a period of his career where he didn’t suck. 2007 was the best year of his career as he had 16 wins, a 3.73 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 8.47 K/9. But from 2008-2010 he never had a WHIP below 1.38, and his ERA was an ugly 4.72. Some of his poor performance during that span was a result of bad luck, but Petco cured those ills. His 3.64 ERA with the Padres last year was well below his xFIP even though his K/9 and BB/9 were almost identical to his 2010 numbers.
The Dodgers were duped by Harang’s Petco performance, and Mat Latos was traded to Cincinnati, but there will still be fantasy relevant pitchers in San Diego as long as Petco is the ballpark they play in.
Corey Luebke is actually a good pitcher in any ballpark. In almost 140 innings last year he had a 3.02 xFIP, 1.07 BABIP (aided by low BABIP), and a 9.92 K/9. And he was better away from Petco. His ERA was about a run and a half lower on the road and his xFIP was about 70 points lower. Given his minor league numbers, the exceptional strikeout rate probably isn’t sustainable. But a respectable, safely above average K/9 isn’t an unreasonable expectation. He’s currently being drafted 40th among SP on MockDraftCentral.com and is 39th on my SP list.
Tim Stauffer would also be a decent pitcher without the Petco safety net. With the safety net, he’s a safe bet for an ERA in the mid three’s with a WHIP that won’t kill you (think 1.25-ish) and an average K/9. Once again MDC.com’s ADP of him is just about right as he is #66 on that list as well as mine.
But after those two Petco is going to have to chip in.
Edinson Volquez was decent once upon a time. If his strand rate wasn’t below average, you could get an ERA in the mid three’s out of him. If his BABIP wasn’t too high, his WHIP would only be bothersome as opposed to unmanageable thanks to his high walk rate. But his BB/9 has been over 5.00 in each of the last three seasons. Three seasons, by the way, in which Volquez has missed a lot of time due to injury.
So Volquez has to help himself before Petco can help him. The mock drafters over at MDC.com seem to believe Volquez is capable of staying on the mound and getting the ball over the plate as he is being drafted 68th among SP. But 68th is borderline fantasy starter territory in ten-team leagues, and there is way too much risk attached to Volquez for me to consider using him as even a spot starter. My rank of 109th among SP for Volquez means he’s an upside pick later in an NL-only draft and nothing more.
Clayton Richard and Dustin Moseley round out San Diego’s rotation, and they’re likely beyond Petco’s saving. Richard is a 28 year old with 500 innings of 4.23 xFIP and a K/9 that fell from respectable to an unacceptable 4.79 last year. No thanks. Moseley was no doubt aided by Petco last year as his ERA was a full run below his xFIP/SIERA. But a large portion of the luck that aided that disparity occurred on the road. There’s no strikeout upside to be found and so there is little reason to draft Moseley.
The Pads have some nice arms in the minors that they acquired via trade from Boston and Texas in
Casey Kelly, Robbie Erlin, and Joe Wieland. Erlin and Wieland may see call-ups this year, but neither is so dynamic that they should be stashed in anything other than dynasty leagues or NL-only leagues with deep benches. Kelly has some legitimate upside, but may be slated for a 2013 major league debut.Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student in Dallas who has refreshed the ESPN fantasy baseball page so many times that he might be investigated for cyber stalking. You can tell him he’s a creeper and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.
(September 24, 2011 – Photo by Kent Horner/Getty Images North America)
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