2012 Fantasy Baseball: Trevor Bauer Gets the Call
Unless you live in a cave, you’ve undoubtedly heard that the Arizona Diamondbacks have called up super prospect Trevor Bauer to make his debut in Atlanta on Thursday night. I have little doubt that Bauer will be an upgrade over Joe Saunders in the Arizona rotation, but the more important question is whether he’ll be better than the worst starter on your fantasy team.
Answering that question requires us to answer two other questions. First, what can we expect out of Bauer at the major league level right away? And second, who is the worst starter on your team?
To determine what we can expect out of Bauer, all we really have is his brief minor league career. But no matter how brief, it’s been a pretty impressive minor league career. In about 120 innings between the three upper levels of the minor leagues, Bauer has posted a 3.03 ERA while striking out over twelve batters per nine innings.
But it isn’t all good news. He’s walked about four-and-a-half batters per nine innings which has led to a 1.37 WHIP. And, more importantly, it’s only been about 120 innings. I generally stay away from pitchers who skip AAA altogether for fear that they’re not seasoned enough. Although Bauer is currently in AAA, he got there so quickly that I have the same concerns about him lacking seasoning. So it’s hard to envision Bauer not having the same, or even worse, control problems in the bigs.
With that being said, Bauer could still be better than the guys at the back end of your fantasy rotation depending on the size of your league. If you’re in an NL-only league, Bauer is obviously worth adding, but it’s likely someone has had him stashed for awhile. In a 16-team mixed league, he’s definitely worth an add as the best names on the wire in a league like that are probably something like Rick Porcell0, Henderson Alvarez, or Derek Lowe. Same goes for a 14-team mixed league where the best waiver wire guys might be something like Ricky Nolasco or Scott Diamond. But again, there’s a decent chance Bauer is already owned in those leagues.
The shallower mixed leagues are where the decision gets tricky. If you’re in a roto league, Bauer is a risky add because of the potential damage he could do in the ratio categories, particularly WHIP. But if you’re in a H2H 5×5 league, you can take on more risk in a particular category, so it might be worth the risk. And if you’re in a points league, it’s likely that his strikeout ability will make him worth owning.
Answering that question requires us to answer two other questions. First, what can we expect out of Bauer at the major league level right away? And second, who is the worst starter on your team?
To determine what we can expect out of Bauer, all we really have is his brief minor league career. But no matter how brief, it’s been a pretty impressive minor league career. In about 120 innings between the three upper levels of the minor leagues, Bauer has posted a 3.03 ERA while striking out over twelve batters per nine innings.
But it isn’t all good news. He’s walked about four-and-a-half batters per nine innings which has led to a 1.37 WHIP. And, more importantly, it’s only been about 120 innings. I generally stay away from pitchers who skip AAA altogether for fear that they’re not seasoned enough. Although Bauer is currently in AAA, he got there so quickly that I have the same concerns about him lacking seasoning. So it’s hard to envision Bauer not having the same, or even worse, control problems in the bigs.
With that being said, Bauer could still be better than the guys at the back end of your fantasy rotation depending on the size of your league. If you’re in an NL-only league, Bauer is obviously worth adding, but it’s likely someone has had him stashed for awhile. In a 16-team mixed league, he’s definitely worth an add as the best names on the wire in a league like that are probably something like Rick Porcell0, Henderson Alvarez, or Derek Lowe. Same goes for a 14-team mixed league where the best waiver wire guys might be something like Ricky Nolasco or Scott Diamond. But again, there’s a decent chance Bauer is already owned in those leagues.
The shallower mixed leagues are where the decision gets tricky. If you’re in a roto league, Bauer is a risky add because of the potential damage he could do in the ratio categories, particularly WHIP. But if you’re in a H2H 5×5 league, you can take on more risk in a particular category, so it might be worth the risk. And if you’re in a points league, it’s likely that his strikeout ability will make him worth owning.
So to summarize: Worth and add in leagues deeper than 12 teams and 10-12 team H2H or points leagues. Not worth and add in 10-12 team roto leagues.
Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a soon-to-be attorney in Dallas who recommends Bauer's Castle as fantasy team name for anyone who adds him. You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.
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(February 29, 2012 – Source: Rob Tringali/Getty Images North America)
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