2012 Fantasy Football: Preseason Market Watch, Matt Ryan on the Rise
Much like Wall Street where stocks can bought and sold out of frustrations the players in your fantasy league are waiting for you to lose interest in a player in hopes that his stock will be sold off at a considerably cheaper price. In an everyday scenario, to save yourself the frustration and the endless ups and downs in your wallet, you can hire pittsburgh financial consultants or similar professionals from your area who specialize in saving your money not costing you it. However, in fantasy football there is no such thing, and that’s what I am here for.
With every passing snap, practice, and game fantasy football players stock can rise and fall without a moment’s notice. But if you don’t know if the players’ sudden demise or quick rise is within character you could easily make the move that costs you everything.
On the market and in fantasy football the Blue Chip stocks show the most value but usually cost the most to invest in, and when you do their value never really out plays their cost and you would be lucky to see any significant increase. However, it’s the undervalued stocks, (the low priced companies) that can cash in the most for you. Throughout the year, I’ll decipher through the sea of stocks, values, and equities and help you to get the return on investment that Wall Street agents help you do daily.
Each week I will help you decode the Bull Market, which players will return the greatest amount and which ones whose current price outweighs the benefits.
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When the fantasy football off season began Matt Ryan could’ve been had in the 10th or higher and as every week progresses so does his stock. Matt Ryan has two 100 catch, 1100 yard capable wide receivers in Roddy White and Julio Jones and the most consistent tight end in all of football in Tony Gonzalez. A new offensive coordinator who hasn’t been shy displaying the passing game will benefit Ryan very well. Ryan is currently being drafted from the 5th to the 7th rounds but as the preseason continues you could start seeing him go even higher. In this offense his upside has never been higher and if you get the chance you should be putting all of your eggs in one basket.
Jermaine Gresham hurt his knee trying to avoid would be tacklers in his week 2 preseason game against Atlanta but all reports show that it isn’t anything serious. Entering his third NFL season, Gresham caught 56 passes for nearly 600 yards and 6 touch downs in 2011 and with another year with Andy Dalton those numbers should see a nice improvement. Gresham has the speed to beat line backers over the top and the strength to overpower safeties underneath. As more defenses give more attention to wide receiver AJ Green, Gresham should absolutely get more looks in the passing game, and should absolutely be getting more looks for your fantasy teams.
Rashad Jennings has averaged 5.4 yards per carry in his short term NFL Career and that was all with being the back up for Maurice Jones-Drew. Last season Jennings missed the entire year due to injury but this year Jones-Drew continues to hold out giving Jennings all the snaps and all the value. Jennings has a very similar skill set as Maurice with a great combination of power and speed and in a new offensive scheme with young players around him he should continue to be a focal point of the offense as they begin to gel with each other. Jennings can be had in the late rounds and with his starting status should be capitalized on immediately.
Ryan Mathews continues to fall, and could probably gain the biggest return you could make this year. Mathews is currently sidelined with a broken collarbone, but the reports out of San Diego remain to be mixed as to when he will return. Mathews doesn’t have any competition that will take away from his playing time when he is on the field, so regardless of whether you get 13 games or 16 games out of him he will perform. But as he continues to slide, his stock price will never be better. Last season Mathews ran for just under 1,100 yards and scored 6 touchdowns while reeling in 50 receptions for 451 yards. Mike Tolbert will no longer be available to steal touchdowns from Mathews which will incredibly increase his value. Mathews has a slew of injury problems in his career so far which will make people pass on him in the early rounds, but don’t be mistaken Mathews is first round talent and if he can stay healthy will be a steal for your fantasy team.
The Downtick:
Despite Matt Ryan’s rise, the one offensive weapon that seems to be taking a back seat to it all is Michael Turner. Once touted as the next big thing, Turner proved that he was worth the investment for many years. He averaged 297carries a year since becoming a Falcon and that includes a 178 carry shortened season in 2009. Turner has shown qualities in a running back that we hadn’t seen in a while, but it may now all be coming to an end with the new air it out era the Atlanta Falcons seem to be turning to. Turner will continue to see work from the goal line which will keep his value fairly high for others in your league, but don’t be fooled Turner will be more of a detriment then an approvement.
Michael Vick continues to show issues with injuries. Granted he wasn’t going to play much in the first two preseason games but when he did he was knocked out early. In just two games, he took a wicked shot to his ribs and slammed his thumb into a helmet throwing a pass. Vick has only played 16 games once in his career and surprisingly it was the first year he started following his stint behind bars. Vick still possesses the talent of a superstar but cannot be relied on to sufficiently win you your fantasy leagues. Vick is still being drafted as a starter, and should be but if you do make sure you get yourself a very good back up for when he goes down.
The Packer offense is so intense that every year there is a different receiver or tight end that leads the team in scoring and yards. And while I still really like Jordy Nelson I am going to drop him off my board a bit. Jordy was second in yards per catch – of any WR with more than 50 catches – and touchdowns as a wide receiver with 15. Just a few years ago the same thing happened when JerMichael Finley broke out and the following year came back to earth. Nelson should still provide your team with some nice numbers, but don’t expect the same amount of touchdowns you saw in 2011. Regardless of the other weapons in the system, Jordy will continue to get the looks from Rodgers and should continue to be drafted high, but his return on investment won’t be as high as it was last year.
You will run into countless people who believe they can predict what will happen on the market or in your fantasy leagues, but doing so is nearly impossible. Watch for trends, what for fluctuations and be careful when treading the waters. One false move can cause you to lose it all.
Written by Justin Mandaro exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com
You can follow me @PeckinTheFix
(August 15, 2012 – Source: Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images North America)