With the trade deadline fast approaching in many leagues this week, it’s imperative to know how schedules will affect any players you may be trading for. I have created a strength-of-schedule weighted spreadsheet for every position based on the number of points per game a team has allowed to that position minus the highest and lowest points allowed total to a certain position.  I have gone through each player’s schedule and added up the number assigned to that team’s defense versus a given position for that player’s entire remaining schedule. The higher the number, the easier the schedule, and vice versa.

How to use this effectively: 

• Compare players in the same tier only

• Know that differences (between players not teams) of 0.2-0.4 are insignificant, 0.6-1.0 is fairly significant, and any differences higher than 1.0 are highly significant

• Understanding that for team ratings, a normal standardized performance is 1.0

• For example: If Matt Ryan is facing the Saints defense, we can expect his normal level of output to be multiplied by 1.5 points, and if he is facing the Bears defense by 0 .5. 

• Each player has his own different “normalized 1.0” standard level of performance, hence why it’s imperative to only compare players strength-of-schedule ratings that are in the same tier as one another. However, you can compare Tier 2 and Tier 3, but not Tier 1 and Tier 3, etc.

• Team ratings are ranked by tier in order from toughest to softest.

AGAINST QB

Trade Talk

Andy Dalton– 4th softest schedule amongst Tier 3 QB’s, does that make him a worthy trade target? For team’s looking to make a push to get into the playoffs, he certainly fits that bill. His next three games are against the Chiefs, Raiders and Chargers. The playoff schedule (for ESPN standard leagues and for leagues that play into Week 17) is fairly brutal though. Dallas in Week 14, Philly in Week 15, Pittsburgh in Week 16, and Baltimore in Week 17 makes for a pretty tough slate, so teams that are already in the playoff picture shouldn’t look to acquire Dalton.

Matthew Stafford– Stafford has a brutal schedule the rest of the season, toughest amongst all Tier 2 QB’s. For fantasy owners that are undoubtedly going to make the playoffs, he’s a good guy to unload; but for whom? Andrew Luck fits that bill. With the easiest slate amongst Tier 2 QB’s, Luck is scheduled to face New England and Buffalo in the next two weeks. His playoff schedule looks like a mixed bag though with a game in Week 14 against the Titans, Week 15 and 17 vs. the Texans, and Week 16 against the Chiefs. However, there’s a chance Luck will be facing a Texans team that has already shut everything down in Week 17. He’s a good trade target for Stafford owners.

Tom Brady– Obviously “Tom Terrific” hasn’t been what fantasy owners have hoped for so far this season, as me and many others projected him to be the #1 Fantasy QB. While you may be disappointed in Brady’s performance to some degree, don’t be further distraught by his schedule ranking. Brady’s schedule is filled with boom/bust matchups; with games against the 49ers, Texans, Jets (tough), and two games versus the Dolphins, one versus the Jaguars, and one versus the Colts (cupcakes).

AGAINST RB

*PPR NOTES*

San Diego, Oakland and Carolina far and away allow the most targets to opposing RB’s

Pittsburgh, Dallas, Buffalo, the Jets, and Arizona allow a very small amount of targets/receptions to opposing RB’s.

Trade Talk

Matt Forte– Forte has an absolutely horrendous schedule, recording the lowest total for all RB’s that don’t have a Week 11 bye (both Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch do). Forte plays at San Francisco, versus Minnesota, versus Seattle, at Minnesota, versus Green Bay, at Arizona, at Detroit, all which rank below the 1.0 normalization line, making Forte’s schedule one of the most brutal for any position player heading into the latter part of the season. To make matters worse, Forte, one of the best pass-catching RB in the league, has only 28 targets in the passing game. Normally one of the top PPR options at RB, Forte has been quite honestly middle of the pack or worse. Some RB who shockingly have more or as many targets as Forte are: Chris Ogbannaya, Jacquizz Rodgers, Fred Jackson, Joique Bell, Ryan Mathews, and Mikel LeShoure (27). Those are just the surprises; Doug Martin, Adrian Peterson, Ray Rice, Trent Richardson, LeSean McCoy, Chris Johnson, Darren Sproles, Darren McFadden, Dexter McCluster, and Marcel Reece all rank ahead of him as well.

Marcel Reese– Reese is definitely worth an acquisition in PPR leagues, as he has recorded 48 targets in the passing game despite being second string for nearly the entire season so far. If McFadden misses significant time, we are looking at a Darren Sproles like level of performance in PPR leagues for Reese. He is tied for the softest schedule among Tier 4 RB’s.

Shonn Greene- With the softest schedule amongst Tier 3 RB’s, Greene makes for a super stealthy acquisition for teams that are a lock to get into the playoffs. While his next 3 games, Arizona, St. Louis, New England, don’t inspire a ton of confidence, his playoff schedule is extremely soft. Greene gets the Jaguars in Week 14, the Titans in Week 15, and Buffalo in Week 17. RB’s I would like to trade to get him include: Frank Gore, Marshawn Lynch (must ask for another piece as well though), Matt Forte (non-PPR only), Steven Jackson, and Ahmad Bradshaw.  Of course, you could always trade a better RB for him and ask for extra pieces in return. 

AGAINST WR

Since there are multiple receivers that are startable on most teams, these will not be split up into tiers, but rather teams with a clear-cut #1 (Chicago, Cincy for example) and teams with two very talented or relatively equal receivers (Atlanta, Denver, Philadelphia, Dallas).

Splits:

• Houston ranks 1st against #1 WR (Jonathan Joseph effect) but 23rd against #2 WR

• Seattle ranks 3rd against #1 WR, 1st against #2 WR, but 23rd against slot receivers

• Green Bay struggles against #1 WR, but actually has been pretty good against #2 WR and slot receivers (Top 10 in both)

• The Jets are 2nd against the #1 WR but mid-pack vs. the #2 WR

• San Diego is 28th against the #1 WR but top 10 against the #2 WR and Top 15 vs. slot receivers

• Oakland is 29th against the #1 WR but 8th against the #2 WR

• More splits can be found here: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef

Trade Talk

A.J. Green- The dude is matchup proof; seriously, no worries. It is worth noting that Pittsburgh held him to one catch for eight yards and a TD the last time he saw them; he faces them in Week 16. He also squares off against Brandon Carr of Dallas in Week 14, but seriously, you’re not trading him.

Brandon Lloyd- Sigh, am I allowed a mulligan on my Brandon Lloyd call? Because the reason I liked him so much was I thought that Aaron Hernandez would prevent the Lloyd double team or extra attention. Lloyd faces the Jets in Week 12 and has a tough 1st-round of Fantasy Playoffs slate in Weeks 14 and 15 (versus Houston and San Francisco). If your team needs Lloyd to be productive for you to have a chance to win, I’d look to trade him to a team that needs to make a run at the playoffs, highlighting the juicy matchups in Weeks 11 and 13 against the Colts and Dolphins. If you don’t need him to perform at a high level for your team to be competitive, hold on to him, because he faces the Jaguars and Dolphins in Weeks 16 and 17.

Brandon Marshall- Again, Marshall is usually pretty matchup proof, but if Jay Cutler’s concussion is a problem, it’s going to be pretty darn terrible for Brandon Marshall owners. Jason Campbell made a really nice deep throw to Marshall in relief of Cutler on Sunday night, but he’s primarily a dink-and-dunk type QB who doesn’t like to take sacks or throw INT’s. So with the Bears terrible pass protection, I expect plenty of nervous dump-offs and throwaways. Target a top five WR like Roddy White, Demaryius Thomas or A.J. Green if you decide you are also nervous about Cutler’s injury. Not to mention, Marshall has a tough schedule.

Calvin Johnson- Well, Calvin looks to have finally healed after the Madden Curse portion of his 2012 season. It might be too late for you to buy-low on MegaTron, but if you find an owner that still fears the curse, and you can take a risk, go for it.

AGAINST TE

Trade Talk

Antonio Gates– Gates is starting to catch fire, with 4 touchdowns in his last 4 games. Things are only going to get better for the once dominant tight end, as he faces the softest schedule of all top flight TE.

In non-PPR leagues I would consider trading Tony Gonzalez for him, as well as everyone else in Tier 2 and below.

Kyle Rudolph– Time to get rid of him; nobody will take him in a trade so you will have to drop him. The schedule continues to be brutal the rest of the way.

Heath Miller- Miller has had a renaissance season his 6 touchdowns are second in the league to Rob Gronkowski. The schedule gets brutal though, as he faces Cleveland twice, San Diego, and Baltimore twice. See if you can unload him for Gates.

Written exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com by Josh Kay.  Send all your PPR questions to Josh on Twitter @JoshKay_Fantasy.