2012 Fantasy Football, Week 1 Rookie Report: RGIII Can Repeat His Performance
The list of rookie performances from opening week must obviously begin with the Heisman Trophy winner who was 19-for-26 for 320 yards with two touchdowns while also rushing 10 times for 42 yards. The hype exploded immediately after RGIII beat the Saints and usually that's a sign that a player overachieved, particularly when it happens in week one with no previous sample size.
But I disagree with that. Don't expect 30 fantasy points every Sunday, but is 19-26-320-2 really such a remarkable stat line? Numbers like that are posted by a handful of quarterbacks each week and I think they are repeatable for Griffin. I expect Griffin to pass about 26 times per game and run about 10 times and if the yardage doesn't get that high each week, maybe he adds a rushing touchdown to make up for it.
This is not Cam Newton opening with 422 passing yards and two touchdowns to go with a rushing touchdown last year. You knew those were not going to be repeated on a regular basis. Although Newton matched those numbers in his second game, he did not throw for over 300 yards again after the fourth game. I don't think that is the case with Griffin, who will have his rookie struggles at times, but could also come close to matching his opening-week numbers in about half of the games.
I took Griffin in a league where I had Tom Brady with the thought that, barring injury, I didn't need a back-up, and Griffin had the highest upside late in the draft for a trade candidate. That plan has worked so far, but I'm not going to pull the trigger on a deal for him just yet. If I thought his opener was a fluke, I would deal him now to somebody willing to buy into the hype. Instead, I think Griffin will have a few more of those performances in the coming weeks to raise his value even higher so I am hanging on to him, although I don't foresee any circumstances when I would start him ahead of Brady.
Andrew Luck, , QB, Indianapolis
The No. 1 pick in the draft was also the rare rookie quarterback to throw for more than 300 yards in his debut with 309 yards and a TD, but three interceptions decreased his value. I don't like his upside this year in fantasy as much as Griffin because I don't like his supporting cast as much and his team will not win as many games. That means that he may throw for a lot of yards with his team trying to come from behind, but turnovers will be a part of that.
I think the Colts want him to throw less than the 45 attempts he had in the opener too and will be more conservative in future games to try and keep it close. With that thinking, Luck's stats will usually be less than they were in the opener. He will have some big fantasy games, but I'm not willing to suffer through the bad ones to wait for those.
Trent Richardson, RB, Cleveland
A disappointing fantasy start for Richardson with 19 carries for only 39 yards, but I don't think fantasy owners should be too hasty in benching him or giving up on him. If you drafted him, you were not even certain he would be recovered from injury in time for the opener and not only was he, but he came out of the game healthy.
Another good sign is that he got a full workload from the start as the Browns had 20 carries by a running back and he got 95 percent of them. If you give me a running back with his talent getting nearly 20 carries a game this season, I will take it and figure he will have many more good days than bad ones like the opener. Buy low if you can.
Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay
Fantasy owners were thrilled with his debut, gaining 95 yards on 24 carries and catching four passes for 23 yards. We all heard that Martin would be the starter, but you had to wonder what the time share with LaGarrette Blount would look like. Well, Martin got eight times as many carries as Blount and averaged nearly four yards per carry, so it looks like he is the feature back for sure for the Bucs.
Stephen Hill, WR, New York Jets
While fantasy owners were gobbling up Justin Blackmon and Kendall Wright as the top rookie receivers, Hill starred in the first game with five catches for 89 yards and two scores. While he won't repeat the touchdowns very often, the other stats aren't out of whack. He was only targeted six times and with Santonio Holmes as the only veteran receiver on the roster, I think Hill will be a key part of New York's passing game throughout the year.
Written by Steve Mims exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Follow Steve on Twitter @nwsportscards
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