2012 Fantasy Football, Week 11 Sit ‘Em/Start ‘Em: Old Man Willis
QB Start
Carson Palmer (Oakland Raiders, Week 11: vs. New Orleans, Fantasy Pros.com rank: 8, My rank: 6)
The other experts seem to be on the same page with Palmer having an average rank of eighth this week. But any time you have Carson freakin’ Palmer as your #6 QB for the week, how can anyone else be listed as your ‘QB Start?” But the case for Palmer is simple. Over his last five games he’s averaging 326 yards, 43 attempts and two touchdowns per game. And he’s playing New Orleans who allows the most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs.
QB Sit
Josh Freeman (Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Week 11: @ Carolina, FantasyPros.com rank: 13, My rank: 11)
Freeman has been highlighted in the article frequently this year. But this is the first time he’s been listed in the ‘Sit’ section. The reason for the change is simply a matchup issue. Carolina allows the 10th fewest fantasy points per game to QBs, and has the 7th best pass defense according to footballoutsiders.com. On the other hand, Carolina allows the 7th most fantasy points to opposing RBs, and has the 16th best run defense according to footballoutsiders.com. So it seems like Tampa Bay is going to be able to do more damage by making Doug Martin the focal point of the offense this week.
RB Start
LaRod Stephens-Howling (Arizona Cardinals, Week 11: @ Atlanta, FantasyPros.com rank: 23, My rank: 17)
Here’s an interesting stat: LSH is 7th among backs in missed tackles forced per touch. So he seems to have some elusiveness. And he got 17 carries in Arizona’s last game. If he continues to get a decent workload, that skill may show itself. Against an Atlanta team that allows the 7th most fantasy points per game to running backs and is 26th against the run according to footballoutsiders.com, this might be the week we see that talent shines.
RB Sit
Willis McGahee (Denver Broncos, Week 11: vs. San Diego, FantasyPros.com rank: 11, My rank: 21)
Willis McGahee has had double digit fantasy points in just three games this season, and all three of those games were against teams that are currently 2nd, 4th, and 7th in terms of most fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs. Those were also the only three games in which McGahee has averaged more than four yards per carry. This week McGahee will face a San Diego run defense that allows the second fewest rushing yards per attempt (3.6).
And then there’s this from @evansilva: 31-year-old #Broncos RB Willis McGahee averaged 4.74 yards/carry on his initial 68 runs of the season. Has averaged 3.85 on his last 92.
Mikel Leshoure (Detroit Lions, Week 11: vs. Green Bay, FantasyPros.com rank: 18, My rank: 22)
Leshoure forces a missed tackle just once every 21 touches, which is the worst rate in the league. He sucks. Sit him.
WR Start
James Jones (Green Bay Packers, Week 11: @ Detroit, FantasyPros.com rank: 27, My rank: 20)
The Lions have the fourth worst secondary according to footballoutsiders.com. A.J. Green is the only receiver with more touchdowns than Jones this week. There’s no reason to sit a legitimate scoring threat in such a good matchup.
WR Sit
Dez Bryant (Dallas Cowboys, Week 11: vs. Cleveland, FantasyPros.com rank: 19, My rank: 26)
Bryant has tendency to just disappear. He has one fantasy point in three separate games this year. Don’t get me wrong, the matchup with Cleveland is a good one. A very good one. But Bryant is just too hard to trust.
TE Start
Brent Celek (Philadelphia Eagles, Week 11: @ Washington, FantasyPros.com rank: 14, My rank: 9)
if Nick Foles takes the same ‘safe’ approach that he did last week (he only went deep on two out of 34 drop backs in his debut last week), Celek could be the big beneficiary against a Redskins team that allows the second most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends.
TE Sit
Vernon Davis (San Francisco 49ers, Week 11: vs. Chicago, FantasyPros.com rank: 10, My rank: 12)
Davis has a grand total of nine fantasy points in his last four games, and the Bears give up just five fantasy points per game to tight ends (fourth fewest in the league).
Carson Palmer (Oakland Raiders, Week 11: vs. New Orleans, Fantasy Pros.com rank: 8, My rank: 6)
The other experts seem to be on the same page with Palmer having an average rank of eighth this week. But any time you have Carson freakin’ Palmer as your #6 QB for the week, how can anyone else be listed as your ‘QB Start?” But the case for Palmer is simple. Over his last five games he’s averaging 326 yards, 43 attempts and two touchdowns per game. And he’s playing New Orleans who allows the most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs.
QB Sit
Josh Freeman (Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Week 11: @ Carolina, FantasyPros.com rank: 13, My rank: 11)
Freeman has been highlighted in the article frequently this year. But this is the first time he’s been listed in the ‘Sit’ section. The reason for the change is simply a matchup issue. Carolina allows the 10th fewest fantasy points per game to QBs, and has the 7th best pass defense according to footballoutsiders.com. On the other hand, Carolina allows the 7th most fantasy points to opposing RBs, and has the 16th best run defense according to footballoutsiders.com. So it seems like Tampa Bay is going to be able to do more damage by making Doug Martin the focal point of the offense this week.
RB Start
LaRod Stephens-Howling (Arizona Cardinals, Week 11: @ Atlanta, FantasyPros.com rank: 23, My rank: 17)
Here’s an interesting stat: LSH is 7th among backs in missed tackles forced per touch. So he seems to have some elusiveness. And he got 17 carries in Arizona’s last game. If he continues to get a decent workload, that skill may show itself. Against an Atlanta team that allows the 7th most fantasy points per game to running backs and is 26th against the run according to footballoutsiders.com, this might be the week we see that talent shines.
RB Sit
Willis McGahee (Denver Broncos, Week 11: vs. San Diego, FantasyPros.com rank: 11, My rank: 21)
Willis McGahee has had double digit fantasy points in just three games this season, and all three of those games were against teams that are currently 2nd, 4th, and 7th in terms of most fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs. Those were also the only three games in which McGahee has averaged more than four yards per carry. This week McGahee will face a San Diego run defense that allows the second fewest rushing yards per attempt (3.6).
And then there’s this from @evansilva: 31-year-old #Broncos RB Willis McGahee averaged 4.74 yards/carry on his initial 68 runs of the season. Has averaged 3.85 on his last 92.
Mikel Leshoure (Detroit Lions, Week 11: vs. Green Bay, FantasyPros.com rank: 18, My rank: 22)
Leshoure forces a missed tackle just once every 21 touches, which is the worst rate in the league. He sucks. Sit him.
WR Start
James Jones (Green Bay Packers, Week 11: @ Detroit, FantasyPros.com rank: 27, My rank: 20)
The Lions have the fourth worst secondary according to footballoutsiders.com. A.J. Green is the only receiver with more touchdowns than Jones this week. There’s no reason to sit a legitimate scoring threat in such a good matchup.
WR Sit
Dez Bryant (Dallas Cowboys, Week 11: vs. Cleveland, FantasyPros.com rank: 19, My rank: 26)
Bryant has tendency to just disappear. He has one fantasy point in three separate games this year. Don’t get me wrong, the matchup with Cleveland is a good one. A very good one. But Bryant is just too hard to trust.
TE Start
Brent Celek (Philadelphia Eagles, Week 11: @ Washington, FantasyPros.com rank: 14, My rank: 9)
if Nick Foles takes the same ‘safe’ approach that he did last week (he only went deep on two out of 34 drop backs in his debut last week), Celek could be the big beneficiary against a Redskins team that allows the second most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends.
TE Sit
Vernon Davis (San Francisco 49ers, Week 11: vs. Chicago, FantasyPros.com rank: 10, My rank: 12)
Davis has a grand total of nine fantasy points in his last four games, and the Bears give up just five fantasy points per game to tight ends (fourth fewest in the league).
The Author
