QB Start

Josh Freeman (Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Week 1: vs. Carolina, FP.com rank: 18, My rank: 10)

Get used to seeing Freeman listed in this space.  There are a limited number of non-top 10 choices at QB and Freeman is a guy I ranked as a top 10 QB this year, so he’ll frequently be my choice. 

My reasons for loving Freeman were outlined in more detail here, but essentially there is a consistent history of quarterbacks having high interception rates in one season and improving their interception totals significantly in the next season if they hold onto the starting job.  Freeman has little to no competition for the starting job at Tampa.  As long as he’s on the field all season, he’ll reap the benefits of the inevitable positive regression in interception rate.  In other words, the bad luck can’t keep up.

Using defensive data from last year is potentially ineffective given the variation in defensive performance from year to year, but Freeman faces a Carolina team that ranked in the top ten of most fantasy points allowed to QBs last year.  The Panthers added no significant free agents in the secondary and didn’t use any early draft picks in the secondary either.  So it stands to reason that their secondary won’t be much better.

QB Sit

Matt Ryan (Atlanta Falcons, Week 1: @ Kansas City, FP.com rank: 7, My rank: 12)

You’ve likely heard that Matt Ryan is pretty good at home.  That’s true.  His quarterback rating of 98.3 at home last year would’ve been good for 5th best in the league if he only played those eight games.  But on the road his quarterback rating fell to 81.0, his yards gained per pass attempt was almost a full yard lower, and his completion percentage was over 6% lower.  He’s on the road this week against a Chiefs team that gave up the fourth fewest passing yards last season.  Sure, they lost Brandon Carr, but they brought in Stanford Routt, they get Eric Berry back from injury, and they still have Brandon Flowers.

RB Start

Maurice Jones-Drew (Jacksonville Jaguars, Week 1: @ Minnesota, FP.com rank: 32, My rank: 12)

This call is as simple as me not believing MJD will be limited to third-down work.

RB Sit

Marshawn Lynch (Seattle Seahawks, Week 1: @ Arizona, FP.com rank: 15, My rank: 27)

This is kind of cheating given that Lynch may not play.  So if he doesn’t, assume Trent Richardson would be listed here.  Both backs have injury in common.  Even if they do play, there is a question of how many carries they’ll be given.  What they don’t have in common is that Lynch isn’t good and we don’t yet know if Richardson is or not.  Lynch has averaged less than four yards per carry for his career, and he’s carried it more than most active backs.

WR Start

Pierre Garcon (Washington Redskins, Week 1: @ New Orleans, FP.com rank: 26, My rank: 20)

There is some cause for concern here given that Garcon’s quarterback will be making his first professional start.  But they’re playing in a dome against a Saints team that allowed the ninth most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers last year.

WR Sit

Jeremy Maclin (Philadelphia Eagles, Week 1: @ Cleveland, FP.com rank: 17, My rank: 25)

There doesn’t seem to be too much of a consensus on whether Joe Haden will cover Maclin or DeSean Jackson.  It’ll probably be a bit of both.  But if Haden ends up on Maclin for a significant portion of the game, there’s too much risk that Maclin is kept in the single digits.

TE Start

Dustin Keller (New York Jets, Week 1: vs. Buffalo, FP.com rank: 16, My rank: 10)

There is some risk that Keller may not play or be limited, so check his status prior to kickoff.  But if he does play, there is a decent chance he could get to double digit fantasy points.  The Bills allowed the most fantasy points and touchdowns to opposing tight ends last year.

TE Sit

Brandon Pettigrew (Detroit Lions, Week 1: vs. St. Louis, FP.com rank: 9, My rank: 12)

The Rams gave up tons of fantasy points to WRs last year and gave up the fewest fantasy points to tight ends.  It wouldn’t be a shock if Megatron, Titus Young, and Nate Burleson were the biggest pass catching fantasy scorers for the Lions this week.

Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com.  If you have any further questions about this particular topic, feel free to ask him on Twitter (@TheRealTAL) or email him at [email protected].