2012 Fantasy Football: Your Complete Guide To Week One In the NFL
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*Note* The Fantasy Studs n Duds Section covers players that are not obvious starts every week.
Atlanta Falcons @ Kansas City Chiefs: 1:00 P.M.
Breakdown:
The Key Matchups:
The Falcons Secondary vs. the Chiefs Passing Attack
One of the most exciting WR-CB matchups of the weekend will be Kansas City’s Dwayne Bowe vs. either Brent Grimes or Asante Samuel. While Grimes is the #1 CB on the Falcons depth chart, the Falcons played “CB by Sides” 2nd most in the league last year. That means they usually didn’t move their CB’s around to adjust to what the offense was doing. That statistic could be a strong indicator of many zone concepts, but new D-Coordinator Mike Nolan is sure to bring some new, advanced concepts into play this year for the Falcons. My professional opinion is that the Falcons will stick Samuel on Bowe and bring safety help over the top. While Samuel will be at a distinct height disadvantage, he does gain from Matt Cassel’s weak arm (5.5 yards per pass average last season) because Samuel is significantly better in zone coverage. Sticking Samuel and help on Bowe, would allow Brent Grimes to completely shut down #2 WR Jon Baldwin. Grimes’s 66% success rate against pass plays was third in the league last year (success rate is adjusted for strength of receiver covered).
If you have better options at WR, feel free to sit Dwayne Bowe (except in PPR formats).
Kansas City RT Eric Winston vs. Ray Edwards, Stephen Nicholas/ Sean Weatherspoon
With Jamaal Charles now returned from injury, it’s going to be incredibly important for the Chiefs to be able to run the ball efficiently. The best run blocker on K.C. is by far, newcomer Eric Winston who was cut from the Texans in a salary-cap move. According to the 2012 Football Outsiders Almanac, Winston aided the Texans since 2007, in being one of the highest in the league at Adjusted Line Yards on runs off Right Tackle. The Chiefs since 2007 averaged an abysmal 27th in the league on runs to right tackle. Winston should man-handle pass-rush specialist Ray Edwards on running plays, and it will be up to the stud outside linebackers for Atlanta, Sean Weatherspoon and Stephen Nicholas to be ready behind Edwards so that Charles can’t get too far past the next level. With MLB monster Curtis Lofton gone to New Orleans, it will be up to Weatherspoon and Nicholas to take another step forward this season, in order to keep Atlanta’s LB corps one of the tops in football.
Injuries:
Atlanta: No significant injuries
Kansas City:
Derrick Johnson- LB- Questionable: Ankle
Brandon Flowers- CB- Questionable: Foot
Having Lost Brandon Carr to the Cowboys in Free Agency, the Chiefs can ill-afford to lose Brandon Flowers for this game if they hope to have a chance against the high-octane Falcons passing attack. The Chiefs have a very solid defense (one of the most under-rated in football), but if Derrick Johnson also misses Sunday’s tussle, Matt Ryan will only need to make one notification pre-snap: the location of TambaHali.
Fantasy Studs n Duds:
- As I mentioned previously, WR- Dwayne Bowe isn’t a must-start this week in non-PPR leagues, and if you have a better option (say, Antonio Brown), I’d bench him.
- Expect a slow day from Michael Turner, but then again, I’ve been vocal all off-season about my skepticism of Michael Turner.
- Peyton Hillis is a sit for me this week against this very strong Falcons run defense, though in PPR leagues he’s worth a look because LE Ray Edwards will be locked up in a tough matchup against RT Eric Winston, and RE John Abraham has lost quite a few steps at this stage of his career.
- In IDP Leagues, the aforementioned LB’s Stephen Nicholas and Sean Weatherspoon are very strong starts this week.
Prediction: Falcons slip by with a 14-13 win in tough Arrowhead stadium.
Breakdown:
Key Matchups:
49ers running game vs. Packers Run Defense:
If the 49ers want to win this game, they must be able to run the ball effectively if their defense gives them a lead. Unfortunately, Gore has his work cut out for him as the 49ers focused on improving their run blocking over their pass blocking this off-season. They replaced C David Baas (better in run game) with 2009 Pro Bowl C Jonathan Goodwin (a better pass blocker). The 49ers were 21st in Adjusted Line Yards last year which is not ideal for a line that is set to go up against Ryan Pickett and B.J. Raji (neither of those two guys allowed a single broken tackle last season).
The biggest key here though, is how ILB D.J. Smith plays in relief of injured ILB Desmond Bishop, who is going to miss the majority if not the entire season with a torn hamstring. Bishop was a stud in the run game, accounting for 17.0% of his Team’s defensive plays (9th best in the NFL for a LB). Smith has big shoes to fill against the run, but he should be a slight improvement over Bishop in coverage. Bishop had an abysmal 31% success rate against the pass, and allowed an Adjusted Yards per Pass Average of 9.4.
CB Charles Woodson vs. Randy Moss or Michael Crabtree
This is going to be a great matchup and a blast from the past if you will. It’s going to be very intriguing to see how effective Randy Moss will be in his first game in over a year. However, there’s also a good chance Woodson goes right to the slot-corner position again, despite the threat of Moss on the outside. In that case, he would be shadowing Michael Crabtree.
Woodson was the lone bright spot in a Packers secondary that got more grief that it really deserved. Simply put, you’re going to allow a lot of passing yards if the opposing team is losing, because they’re going to throw a lot more. Woodson allowed 5.6 Adjusted Yards Per Pass (12th in the league) compared to counter-part CB Tramon Williams who’s penchant for making big plays came at a huge price of 9.2 Adjusted Yards per Pass, as well as being targeted on 21% of passing plays (15th highest in the league).
Scheming Facts:
Here are some very interesting notes for this game:
- Aaron Rodgers improves with every extra pass rusher the defense sends.
- The 49ers only rushed 3 7th most times in the league, and 11th most in the league at # of times rushing 4
- The 49ers are 7th, 6th, and 17thin the league against defending #1, #2, and other WR respectively (ranked by DVOA: Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average) and 6th in the league against opposing TE
- The Packers were 26th in the league in DVOA against opposing TE.
Injuries:
Green Bay Packers:
James Starks- RB- Out: Toe
BJ Raji- NT- Questionable: Ankle
San Francisco 49ers:
Brandon Jacobs- RB- Questionable/Doubtful: Knee
Ted Ginn- WR/PR/KR- Doubtful: Ankle
Fantasy Studs n Duds:
- Vernon Davis is an absolute must start. Green Bay safety Charlie Peprah had a 10.2 Adjusted Yards per Pass average last season, and is notoriously picked on in coverage. (Also reference the aforementioned 26th DVOA vs. the TE for Green Bay).
- Sit WR- Michael Crabtree; if Charles Woodson is on him, it will be a very long day for the Texas Tech product.
- Sit Cedric Benson
- Randy Moss is worth a flier this week in deep leagues, but bear in mind the risk. I’d recommend a wait and see approach, but again, if you’re a risk taker, this is a juicy matchup.
Prediction: Packers win 27-23
Quick Hits:
Colts @ Bears: 1:00 P.M.
Key Matchup to Watch: Bears CB Charles Tillman vs. Colts WR Reggie Wayne
Key Injuries:
Bears- MLB Brian Urlacher: Questionable: Knee
Colts- WR Austin Collie: Questionable: Concussion
Fantasy Start/Sit: Deep PPR option: Bears WR- Earl Bennett
Prediction: Bears win 27-10
Eagles @ Browns: 1:00 P.M.
Key Matchup to Watch: Eagles MLB DeMecoRyans vs. Browns RB Trent Richardson
Key Injuries:
Browns- RB Trent Richardson: Questionable: Knee
Browns- CB Joe Haden: Questionable: Suspension (being appealed)
Fantasy Start/Sit: Sit all Browns except Richardson
Prediction: Eagles win 30-10
Rams @ Lions: 1:00 P.M
Key Matchup to Watch: Lions MLB Stephen Tulloch vs. Rams RB Steven Jackson
Key Injuries:
Detroit Lions: FS- Louis Delmas- Doubtful: Knee
Fantasy Start/Sit:
Start Rams WR- Danny Amendola in all PPR leagues
Start Lions WR- Nate Burlesson in deep PPR leagues
Start Lions WR- Titus Young in all leagues
Start Rams TE- Lance Kendricks in deeper leagues or 2 TE leagues
Prediction: Lions win 35-17
Patriots @ Titans: 1:00 P.M.
Key Matchup to Watch: Titans CB AlterranVerner vs. Patriots WR Brandon Lloyd
Key Injuries:
New England Patriots: RB- Shane Vereen- Doubtful: Foot
Fantasy Start/Sit:
Start Titans- WR- Nate Washington in deep standard leagues and all PPR leagues.
Start Patriots- TE- Aaron Hernandez in all formats, as the Titans were 30th against the TE in DVOA last year.
Start Titans- TE- Jared Cook Jr. in all formats, as the Patriots were ranked 29th in the leagues against the TE last year.
Prediction: Patriots win 31-20
Jaguars @ Vikings: 1:00 P.M.
Key Matchup to Watch: Jaguars LT Eugene Monroe vs. Vikings RE Jared Allen
Key Injuries:
Minnesota Vikings: RB- Adrian Peterson- Questionable: Knee
Jacksonville Jaguars- QB- Blaine Gabbert- Questionable: Toughness
Fantasy Start/Sit:
Start Vikings RB-Toby Gerhart in most leagues as a flex option
Start Jaguars RB- Rashad Jennings in all formats
Start Jaguars RB- Maurice Jones-Drew only as a possible flex option, but he’s not a must start by any stretch
Vikings win 24-17
Dolphins @ Texans: 1:00 P.M.
Key Matchup to Watch: Texans All Pro LT Duane Brown vs. Dolphins RE Cameron Wake
Key Injuries:
Houston Texans: RB- Arian Foster- Questionable: Knee
Fantasy Start/Sit:
Start Texans RB Ben Tate in all formats
In IDP Leagues sit Dolphins DE Cameron Wake
Dolphins RB Reggie Bush isn’t a must-start
Prediction: Texans win 31-17
Redskins @ Saints: 1:00 P.M.
Key Matchup to Watch: Saints TE Jimmy Graham vs. Redskins FS Tanard Jackson
Key Injuries:
New Orleans Saints:
LB Curtis Lofton- Quesitonable: Ankle
LB David Hawthorne- Questionable: Knee
LB Jonathan Vilma- Questionable: Knee
WR- Marques Colston- Questionable: Foot
Washington Redskins:
SS Brandon Meriwether- Out: Sprained MCL and ACL
Fantasy Start/Sit:
Sit all New Orleans Linebackers in IDP leagues (injury risk)
Start Washington Redskins RB Evan Royster in deep leagues as a flex option
Avoid all other Redskins RB
Start Washington TE Fred Davis in all leagues
Prediction: This game could end up being very close if all the Saints LB can’t go; Saints win 31-24 (Redskins cover spread of -9.0)
Bills @ Jets: 1:00 P.M.
Key Matchup to Watch: Jets All Pro C Nick Mangold vs. Bills All Pro NT Kyle Williams
Key Injuries:
New York Jets: Dustin Keller- TE- Questionable: Hamstring
Buffalo Bills: Stevie Johnson- WR- Questionable/Probable: Groin
Fantasy Start/Sit:
Start Stevie Johnson if healthy (has owned Darrelle Revis in the past)
Start Bills RB/WR CJ Spiller in all PPR formats
Sit Jets RB Shonn Greene in all formats
Prediction: Bills win 16-12
Panthers @ Buccaneers: 4:25 P.M.
Key Matchup to Watch: Bucs WR Vincent Jackson vs. Panthers CB Chris Gamble
Key Injuries:
Carolina Panthers: Jonathan Stewart- RB- Questionable: Foot
Fantasy Start/Sit:
Start Panthers RB DeAngelo Williams in all leagues as J-Stew is very unlikely to suit up for this one
Start Bucs RB Doug Martin in all leagues
Start Bucs RB LeGarrette Blount as a deep league flex option (16 teams)
Start Bucs WR Mike Williams as a flex- PPR option this week
Prediction: Bucs win 27-20
Seahawks @ Cardinals: 4:25 P.M.
Key Matchup to Watch: Seahawks RE Chris Clemons vs. Cardinals 7th round Rookie LT Nate Potter (filling in for injured Levi Brown who is on IR)
Key Injuries:
Arizona Cardinals:
LT Levi Brown- Out for Season: Knee
RB Beanie Wells- Questionable: Hamstring
Seattle Seahawks:
RB Marshawn Lynch- Questionable: Back
Fantasy Start/Sit:
Sit all Cardinals except Larry Fitzgerald
Start Seahawks WR Sidney Rice
Marshawn Lynch owners need to pick up Robert Turbin to start if necessary instead of Lynch if he can’t go Sunday
Start Seahawks QB Russell Wilson in deep leagues (or 2 QB leagues)
Prediction: Seahawks win 15-6
Steelers @ Broncos: 8:30 P.M.
Key Matchup to Watch: Backup FS Ryan Mundy vs. Broncos Receivers or TE
Key Injuries:
Pittsburgh Steelers:
FS- Ryan Clark will miss the game due to his sickle-cell trait which restricts him from playing in the Denver altitude
RG- David Decastro placed on IR with a knee injury
RB- Rashard Mendenhall- Doubtful: knee
Fantasy Start/Sit:
Start Broncos RB Willis McGahee in all formats
Start all Broncos WR
Start Steelers RB Isaac Redman in most formats
Start Steelers RB Jonathan Dwyer in super deep leagues
Prediction: Broncos win 23-20
Written by Josh Kay exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. For more great fantasy analysis, follow Josh on Twitter @Rays_Nut1292
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