2013 Fantasy Football Daily Fix: October 5, 2013
Saturday’s Fantasy Football Fix delivers news, notes, and injury nuggets along with Week 5 QB recommendations for DraftKings NFL Fantasy Games.
News, Notes and Nuggets
- New York Jets claimed TE Zach Sudfeld off waivers after the New England Patriots cut the undrafted rookie was cut. The Sudfeld pickup could have been prompted by concerns over how long/well TE Kellen Winslow’s surgically repaired knees will hold up. Winslow missed multiple practices this week and is listed as questionable for Week 5. WR Santonio Holmes (foot) has been ruled out for Monday night’s matchup versus Atlanta. WR Stephen Hill (concussion) was medically cleared to play and is listed as probable for Week 5, while WR Clyde Gates (knee) couldn’t practice Saturday and is questionable. RB Mike Goodson was activated Saturday following completion of his four-game suspension. Goodson is dealing with a hamstring injury and is listed as questionable. RB Chris Ivory (hamstring) practiced on a limited basis late in the week and is probable. While Powell is currently entrenched in the lead back role, Goodson could challenge for playing time in a few weeks especially if Ivory continues to battle injuries and inconsistency.
- The Atlantic Falcons officially ruled out RB Steven Jackson for Monday night’s dustup with the Jets. He’s targeting a Week 7 return.
- San Diego Chargers RB Ryan Mathews was a late addition to the team’s injury report with a hamstring issue. The Chargers listed Mathews as probable, which is a positive considering his track record.
- The Buffalo Bills will work out QB Dennis Dixon on Sunday and are reportedly among the teams interested in former Buccaneers QB Josh Freeman. With Kevin Kolb on injured reserve and B. J. Manuel out of action for up to eight weeks with a sprained LCL, rookie signal caller Jeff Tuel is it. Unfortunately, this particular “Tuel Time” isn’t ready for his prime time close up.
- The Oakland Raiders are also said to be interested in Josh Freeman, however they’ll await the findings of the NFL/NFLPA investigations before actively pursuing him.
- The Baltimore Ravens released veteran WR Brandon Stokley used the roster spot to re-sign TE Billy Bajema.
- New England Patriots ruled out RB Stevan Ridley (knee). Look for LeGarrette Blount to step into Ridley’s role. Blount is a solid flex option against Miami. RB Brandon Bolden (knee) was very limited in practice. He’s on the injury report as questionable, but is expected to play. TE Rob Gronkowski (back, forearm) didn’t travel with the team to Cincinnati. Fingers crossed he returns in Week 6. WR Danny Amendola (groin), RB Brandon Bolden (knee) and WR Kenbrell Thompkins (shoulder) are all questionable.
- Green Bay Packers RB Eddie Lacy (concussion) practiced all week and will start vs. Detroit. With James Starks (knee) out, Johnathan Franklin will back up Lacy. TE Jermichael Finley (concussion) practiced in full and will play.
- Baltimore Ravens listed WRs Jacoby Jones (knee) and Marlon Brown are questionable after both practiced on a limited basis Friday. Jones will be game-time decision; Brown is tentatively expected to play.
- Miami Dolphins WR Brandon Gibson (ankle) practiced on a limited basis though he is likely to play.
- Kansas City Chiefs are likely to roll with TE Sean “Fear the Beard” McGrath against the Titans this week as TEs Anthony Fasano (knee) is questionable and Travis Kelce (knee) has been ruled out again.
- Jacksonville Jaguars WR Cecil Shorts (groin) didn’t practice this week, however he’s expected to play per head coach Gus Bradley. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick will start for the injured Jake Locker. WR Justin Blackmon will make his regular season debut after serving a four-game suspension. TE Marcedes Lewis is out indefinitely (and hopefully doing time on your league’s waiver wire) after he reinjured the same calf that had kept him on the sideline since the preseason.
- Dallas Cowboys WR Miles Austin (hamstring) is expected to miss his second straight game. Look for rookie WR Terrance Williams to pick up the majority of Austin’s targets again this week. I like Williams as a sneaky reach play versus the Broncos.
DraftKings Quarterback Recommendations
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Let’s take a quick look at the rules for the different NFL games DraftKings offers, and the basic way that quarterbacks score points:
- Passing TD = +4PTs
- 25 Passing Yards = +1PT (+0.04PT/ per yard is awarded)
- 300+ Yard Passing Game = +3PTs
- Interception = -1PT
- 10 Rushing Yards = +1PT (+0.1PT per yard is awarded)
- Rushing TD = +6PTs
- 100+ Yard Rushing Game = +3PTs
Here are my Week 5 QB recommendations from three different tiers—expensive, midrange, and bargain values. Keep in mind that I will rarely recommend the priciest one or two QB option(s) because (1) it is typically easier to find signal callers that can outperform their costs (mispriced values) than it is to find lower-end or reach offensive skill position players to do the same; (2) it is more difficult to build a competitive roster that I like/trust when I spent top dollar on my quarterbacks; and (3) you don’t need me to be Mistress of the Obvious when it comes to Peyton Manning or Drew Brees. You’ll notice that four of the six quarterback recommendations this week are involved in two potentially fantasy-friendly matchups—Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants and the San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders. Of the remaining two options, one will likely have to throw 40-plus times to keep up with Brees and the Saints, while the other faces off against the get well defense of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Some options are riskier than others so please make sure you consider each guy’s risk/reward potential before plugging him into your lineup.
Expensive
Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers ($8,400) @ Oakland Raiders—Rivers and the Chargers head north to face the Raiders in Oakland in late game that kicks off at 11:30 p.m. ET. If you’re up for an all-nighter, this one has could be worth your time not only to see a resurgent Rivers pick apart the Raiders defense, but also watch how masterful coaching can mask an array of deficiencies on both sides of the ball. Rivers completed 35-of-42 passes for 401 yards and three touchdowns in a decisive Week 4 win over the Dallas Cowboys. What’s even more amazing is that he did it behind an O-line that was missing three starters and with Antonio Gates the only established target in the passing game. Rivers has two 400-yard passing games, 11 touchdowns and two picks through four games. If you’ve haven’t ridden the Rivers’ train in DraftKings NFL fantasy, this would be an ideal week to get onboard. Oakland has allowed seven passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks and 21 or more fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Ride him while he’s hot, hot , hot.
Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles ($8,200) @New York Giants—Despite a drop-off in production over the past two weeks in games versus teams with better defenses (Kansas City and Denver), Vick heads into Week 5 as fantasy’s fourth-highest scoring player. He’ll have a chance to shore up his position this week against a decidedly friendlier to fantasy quarterbacks New York Giants defense. The G-Men have yielded 20 or more fantasy points to the Cowboys’ Tony Romo, Broncos’ Peyton Manning, Panthers’ Cam Newton and the Chiefs’ Alex Smith over four games. Philly ranks No. 2 in total offense behind the Denver Broncos and they should be able to take advantage of a bad Giants pass-rush and an even worse, injury-riddled secondary. New York has given up the sixth-most fantasy points per game (21.5) and 10 passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks. For all that’s been said about Vick having to make better decisions. Philly has to find a way to get target leader DeSean Jackson open and Brent Celek has to hold on to the freaking football when it comes his way. Roll with the dual-threat Vick in a juicy matchup featuring two epically-bad defenses that can lead to a boatload of fantasy points.
Midrange
Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears ($7,600) @ New Orleans Saints—Speaking of hard to trust, the “Bad Jay Cutler” resurfaced in Week 4’s loss to the Detroit Lions in which he threw for 317 yards and two touchdowns along with a buzz-killing three picks and he also lost a fumble. The Bears O-line also had its worst outing of the early season. Last week’s step back aside, Cutler is playing better football this year than he has over the last few in an offense that plays to his strengths. Moreover, he has a cadre of reliable weapons in Brandon Marshall, Matt Forte, Alshon Jeffery and Martellus Bennett. Even on a day when he had multiple turnovers, Cutler put up decent fantasy numbers, which is a shift from the past. Cutler and the Bears host the Drew Brees and the red-hot New Orleans Saints at home this week in a game that has shootout potential written all over it. The Saints much-improved fifth-ranked pass rush could cause Cutler problems, however it’s also likely that Cutler & Co. could be a challenge for New Orleans. The Bears signal caller has scored 20 or more fantasy points in three out of four games so far this season. I like his chances of making it four out of five this week.
Eli Manning, New York Giants ($7,300) vs. Philadelphia Eagles—Where oh where is Peyton’s little bro, you know, the guy who inspired the “you can’t spell elite without Eli” talk? We’ll find out Sunday whether or not the Manning can put his early season woes behind him in one of Week 5’s most anticipated fantasy and “real” football showdowns with the Philadelphia Eagles. Philly’s D can’t stop the run or the pass. They don’t make tackles or put much pressure on opposing quarterbacks—all of which spells “great news” for Manning, who leads the league in interceptions (nine), possesses a lowly 69.1 QB rating and has been sacked 14 times. In fact, Philly’s opponents have thrown for almost 340 yards per game and tossed nine passing touchdowns through four contests. Need more convincing? The Eagles D/ST has allowed the second-most fantasy points to the position (22.5 PPG in ESPN standard scoring and 23.83 PPG in Yahoo standard leagues). While Manning’s play has been subpar over the past three weeks, the matchup between two NFC “Least” rivals has bounce back written all over it. “Eli wouldn’t be Eli” without a couple of turnovers, but his yardage and touchdown totals should be enough to push low-end QB1 value.
Bargains
Terrelle Pryor, Oakland Raiders ($7,000) vs. San Diego Chargers—Lingering concussion symptoms forced Pryor to sit out Week 4 and robbed fantasy players of the chance to roll the dice on him in a tasty matchup against the Redskins. We get a do-over of sorts this week as Pryor dials up another plus matchup, this time at home against the San Diego Chargers. While the Bolts offense looks to be clicking on all cylinders, the defense is another story entirely. San Diego has yielded more fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks (25.5 PPG in ESPN standard scoring and 26.80 PPG in Yahoo! standard scoring) through four games than any NFL team. The Eagles’ Michael Vick torched them for462 total yards and three scores in Week 2 followed by Jake Locker’s 367-yard and two touchdown performance the following week. Opposing quarterbacks have little or no trouble escaping the pocket and linebacker Dwight Freeney tore a quad muscle and is done for the year. While Pryor’s ability to run adds to his fantasy appeal, he’ll put up better numbers if the Raiders are playing from behind and he’s forced to use him arm. I freaking love him this week as a potential low-end QB1.
Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams ($6,800) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars—I know—I can’t believe it myself. Just last week we watched Bradford and the Rams crap the bed on Thursday Night Football, and 10 days later I have the stones to suggest that he’s a cheap ticket to DraftKings fantasy nirvana. What’s up with that?! The current rap on Bradford is that he’s in full-blown regression mode, missing easy throws and reacting poorly to pressure. It certainly doesn’t help that OC Brian Schottenheimer’s play calling is 180 degrees away from anything remotely creative. Bradford gets another shot at redemption this Sunday in a just-what-the-doctor-ordered visit from the get well defense of the Jacksonville Jaguars. While you can beat the Jags in many ways, teams with solid run games typically choose to do it on the ground. Unfortunately (or fortunately for our purposes), the St. Louis running game has yet to take off and Bradford will have little choice but to air it out. Another outing of 40+ pass attempts wouldn’t be a surprise, so let’s hope Bradford and Shottenheimer find a way to get Chris Givens some looks downfield and exploit Jared Cook’s mismatch against the Jaguars young safeties. It takes a leap of faith to start Bradford, but if ever there was a week to do it, this is it.