2013 Fantasy FootballBrett TalleyFantasy Football

2013 Fantasy Football Daily Fix: September 10, 2013

Daily Fantasy Baseball Fix

Coming up in today’s football version of the daily fix I’ve got updates on the running back situations for the Bills, Bengals, Dolphins, Patriots, Saints, Giants and Jets, and then I’ll have some recommendations on wide receivers to play in DraftKings contests in week 2.

News and Notes

  • Buffalo Bills
    • This off season the general narrative was that there would be less of a split this year between C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson. Spiller had 22 touches to Jackson’s 17 on Sunday. For you math geniuses, that’s about a 56/44 split. I don’t think that fits the narrative.
  • Cincinnati Bengals
    • When it was all said and done, Giovani Bernard ended up with an ADP slightly better than BenJarvus Green Ellis’. But BJGE looked like the lead back in week 1 getting 15 touches to Bernard’s five, and BJGE picked up a score. I realize the idea is that Bernard may take over as the season goes along, but for now it’s clear that BJGE is the more usable fantasy back.
  • Miami Dolphins
    • Woof, ugly game for both Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas. Even with a great matchup against the Colts in week 2, I don’t know how you can trust either of these guys in your lineup. There’s a chance you own Miller and don’t have a better option, so if you were relying heavily on Miller after your draft, you have to run him back out there. But if Miller was your third running back and you have a receiver you can start in front of him at flex, do it. As for Thomas, he did the get a goal line carry and a score, so if you have a roster spot and are thin at RB, he’s worth a look as he’s owned in just 9.5% of ESPN leagues.
  • New England Patriots/New York Giants
    • These teams are listed together because Stevan Ridley and David Wilson are in the same boat. They both got benched for fumbling on Sunday, but they are both in line to get a second chance in week 2 because their primary backups, Andre Brown and Shane Vereen, are injured. If you took one of these guys early, you may have dodged a major bullet here. Run both back out there next week.
  • New Orleans Saints
    • Blah blah blah more work for Mark Ingram this year blah blah blah. Ingram got nine carries in week 1, but managed only 11 yards. Fellow backs Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles received nine and eight carries, respectively. This just feels like same old same old with the New Orleans backfield. Sproles is worth a play in all formats each week just because of his heavy involvement in the pass game, Thomas is a sneaky play in good matchups, and Ingram is someone you play when desperate on the off chance he finds the end zone and gets you eight fantasy points.
  • New York Jets
    • This is one of the more interesting backfield situations in the league to me. I’m intrigued by the talent Ivory displayed in New Orleans, and I’d like either back if he distinguished himself behind an above average run blocking line. But week 1 didn’t bring a ton of clarity. Powell got 12 carries to Ivory’s 10, and Powell caught four balls to Ivory’s zero. Powell is clearly the third down back, but for now we’ll have to assume carries will be split evenly. Ideally, Powell would establish himself as the lead back and play all three downs. He’s only owned in 32% of ESPN leagues comapred to 100% for Ivory, but Powell is the back you’d probably rather have right now.

DraftKings Wide Receiver Recommendations

Week 1 is in the books and I have tripled my money as I cashed in a Triple Up! this weekend. But when week 16 rolls around I could have a chance to “millionaire up” when DraftKings hosts a contest with $3.1 million in prizes and a million dollar grand prize. Qualifiers for this insane contest are going on weekly.

Before we get to the recommendations, here are the rules for the various NFL games DraftKings offers and a quick look at how wide receivers score points:

  • 10 Receiving Yards = +1PT (+0.1PT per yard is awarded)
  • Reception = +1PT
  • Receiving TD = +6PTs
  • 100+ Yard Receiving Game = +3PTs
  • Fumble Lost = -1PT
  • 2 Point Conversion (Pass, Run, or Catch) = +2PTs

Luxury Options

Dez Bryant, $6,700 – Dez is priced like a non-top ten receiver this week. DK must not like the matchup with Brandon Flowers, but I’m not worried about it and will still have Dez ranked as a top five receiver this week. Sure, Flowers is a good cover corner, but despite that the Chiefs were still 4th worst against #1 receivers last year according to Football Outsiders, and they were a little below average in terms of fantasy points allowed to receivers. We all had Dez as a top four receiver at worst in the preseason. Don’t let one bad game scare you off.

Andre Johnson, $6,400 – From 2010 to 2012, only Wes Welker averaged more receptions per game played than Andre Johnson. Johnson is a PPR monster, and he’s healthy right now, so there’s no reason he should be priced as the 14th best receiver. He’s a top five option in PPR. And that’s especially true in this matchup against Tennesee. Tennessee was rated as the fourth worst team in pass coverage last year by ProFootballFocus and were below average in terms of fantasy points allowed to receivers.

Reasonable Options

DeSean Jackson, $5,100 – I’ll admit that I vastly underestimated Jackson’s apparent usage in this new offense. I’ve never been a big fan of his skills and the boom or bust nature that goes along with a big play receiver. But he was clearly the first option in the passing game last night. DraftKings sets prices prior to factoring in previous week performance, so the pricing model is going to be a week behind in catching up on Jackson.

Hakeem Nicks, $4,700 – I don’t love the matchup with Denver for the Giants’ passing game, but DK has Nicks priced as the 38th receiver this week. That’s just too low whether Champ Bailey is able to go or not.  Because I love the elite options this week as well as DJax and another Giants receiver listed below, I’m probably not picking Nicks this week. But I do think he’s priced improperly.

Cheap Options

Alshon Jeffery, $3,800 – There was a lot of talk in the preseason about getting Jeffery more involved, and that came to fruition on Sunday when he caught five passes on eight targets. He only produced 42 yards and didn’t score, but the involvement was encouraging. He’s got a great matchup in week 2 against the Vikings who struggled against the pass last year, lost a good corner in Antoine Winfield in the offseason, and then allowed 357 yards to Detroit without him in week 1.

Reuben Randle, $3,100 – Again, the DK pricing model is only taking into account matchup and not what happened in week 1. But you and I know that Randle caught five passes for 101 yards in week 1. No matter the matchup, a guy who is capable of hitting the century mark shouldn’t be going for only $100 more than the minimum price.

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