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2014 Fantasy Football Daily Fix: Week 13 Wide Receivers

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Welcome to Wide Receiver Wednesday at the Daily Fix! Each Wednesday of the NFL regular season @RyNoonan will provide you with several receiving options that are strong plays that week at DraftKings. Monday through Friday the Fix writers will provide you with a Daily Fix that covers each position, with a weekly roundup on Friday.

Not into the ‘Daily‘ thing yet? Let’s talk. It’s a ton of fun, you get to start new each week and pick your squad, and DraftKings has a great promo going right now where they’ll match your initial deposit up to $600. Do it. Oh, and you get a free year’s subscription to our premium content as well in the #FrontOffice.

The Wide Receiver position is loaded with options in this new, ever-prolific passing era of the NFL, so options abound. I’ll break it up into tiers, essentially, WR1’s, 2’s, 3’s and FLEX/deep options.

Your WR1 and WR2’s are no-brainer starts in your normal fantasy leagues. I’ll highlight them if they have an exceptional matchup or price. We’re likely going to find some inexpensive plays here week in a week out as well, due to the depth at the position. We’ll need to dig a little deeper as we’re entering bye weeks, but I hope to continue picking winners for you.

Scoring and other settings can be found here.

For reference, you’ll continue to see me use both aFPA (Schedule-Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed) from 4for4.com and DVOA (Defensive-Adjusted Value Over Average) from FootballOutsiders.com. These stats become more reliable each week as have real data points to reference instead of only a hybrid of data mixed with pre-season expectations.

WR1

Dez Bryant – PHI @ DAL ($7.900)

In terms of value, there’s little to be found at the top of my receiver rankings this week. In past weeks it’s been easy to identify an elite player with both a great matchup and advantageous price. This week, not so much. It’s more about the matchup here with Dez Bryant. Vegas has the total at 54.5 for this NFC East battle, and there’ll be plenty of fantasy goodness to be had. The Eagles have been an opportunistic defense, but they’re very friendly to wide receivers. They’re allowing a league-high 42.5 aFPA to wideouts in full PPR scoring, which Draftkings is. Dez will eat. (Pun is unfortunate but true.)

Calvin Johnson – CHI @ DET ($7,000)

Loyal readers would know that I’ve had Antonio Brown ($9,000) in this WR1 section nearly every week, and while I’ll definitely have some exposure to him come Sunday, I can’t recommend him when he’s $2,000 more than Megatron. The combination of lackluster Quarterback play and return from injury has suppressed Johnson’s price and I don’t anticipate seeing it get this low again in 2014. The Bears struggle at…life. Really, they’re bad everywhere and Calvin Johnson should be in any Turkey Day contest that you’re in.

Other Options:  I can make a case for A.J. Green ($8,200) this week but I’m not crazy about the price. The matchup is great and he’s clearly 100%. I can’t fault anyone for wanting the consistency of Demaryius Thomas ($9,500) in their lineup, but look at that price. He’ll need to score roughly 30 points to return any value. The way that the Patriots secondary is playing right now is enough to keep both Packers on the sideline for me this weekend. The cost is prohibitive as well. I hope you enjoyed the Josh Gordon ($8,300) discount while it lasted.

WR2

Brandon Marshall -CHI @ DET ($6,400)

I wish Brandon Marshall was playing on Sunday because I suspect his ownership would be quite low this week. The matchup on paper looks difficult, especially after the Bears inability to exploit Tampa Bay’s horrendous secondary. He looks a lot more appealing in a 3 game slate on Thanksgiving. The Patriots were able to throw the ball at will on Detroit, and while no one will confuse Jay Cutler for Tom Brady, it’s worth noting that Marshall has fared well against Detroit in the past. According to Pat Thorman of Pro Football Focus, Marshall should work primarily out of the slot where he’ll face Cassius Vaughn, a matchup that should be quite favorable for the Bears receiver.

Keenan Allen – BAL @ SD ($6,000)

Last week I featured Allen and it paid off. His lack of touchdown production has kept his cost down for much of the season, and despite it jumping up quite a bit this week (up from $4,900), I still like Allen for $6k. He’ll need just 19 points to return value here, and he’s facing a Ravens secondary that’s been an absolute sieve since Jimmy Smith was lost for the season. The Ravens are tied with the Eagles allowing 42.5 aFPA to wide receivers, making both Allen and his teammate Malcolm Floyd attractive options on Sunday. The high volume of targets/receptions for Allen make him a much safer option than Floyd, but I anticipate using both players this week.

Other Options: Last week Mohamed Sanu ($5,200) was nearly the same price as A.J. Green and they’ve headed in opposite directions. As I mentioned above, I’m not afraid to use Green this week but Sanu presents value here at $5,200. He’s still getting a solid amount of targets each week, and the Buccaneers secondary is one to attack, as they’re in the bottom five in both DVOA and aFPA. Mike Wallace ($4,600) has cooled quite a bit since his hot start, but sub $5,000 seems wrong. His targets have gone down the the emergence of Jarvis Landry ($5,400) but these prices should be reversed in my opinion.

WR3

Charles Johnson– CAR @ MIN ($4,000)

The worst move I made last weekend was pivoting off of Charles Johnson. At $3,500 I had a lot of Johnson in my Draftking lineups early in the week when it looked as though Greg Jennings and Jarius Wright would miss the game. Well, both played on Sunday and Johnson still lead the team in snaps and targets. Here’s the thing; Johnson’s for real. His measurables are off the charts and he has size to go with it. The Panthers are bottom third against each wide receiver position according to DVOA, and the upside here is strong.

Other Options: Keenan Allen gets a mention above and so does his teammate Malcom Floyd ($4,000). The matchup is advantageous and the price is worth his touchdown upside against Baltimore’s depleted secondary. In a lot of ways he’s similar to Justin Hunter ($4,000), only 10 years older. The other main difference here is the youngster Hunter is becoming his team’s top option on the outside. Mettenburger is looking Hunter’s way, including 10 targets last week, and few teams struggle stopping WR1’s more than the Texans (28th DVOA).

FLEX/Lottery Tickets

Stedman Bailey – OAK @ STL ($3,000)

Stedman Bailey is not on #TeamBigWR but the kid can play. After outperforming college teammate Tavon Austin throughout their careers at West Virginia, the 5’10” and not-so-fast Bailey watched Austin get selected 80+ picks ahead of him on draft day. It sounds cliche but Bailey is a football player. The kid has a sense for the ball in the red zone, and is known as a strong route runner. He led the Rams in targets last week, catching 7 of 9 for 86 yards and a score. He had a touchdown called back due to a penalty but later that same series the Rams went back to Bailey in the end zone and this time it counted. For minimum price, I’m willing to take a chance on this becoming a trend for a Rams team in need of a primary receiver.

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