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2014 Fantasy Football Daily Fix: Week 6 Wide Receivers

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Welcome to Wide Receiver Wednesday at the Daily Fix! Each Wednesday of the NFL regular season I’ll provide you with several receiving options that are strong plays that week at DraftKings. Monday through Friday the Fix writers will provide you with a Daily Fix that covers each position, with a weekly roundup on Friday.

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The Wide Receiver position is loaded with options in this new, ever-prolific passing era of the NFL, so options abound. I’ll break it up into tiers, essentially, WR1’s, 2’s, 3’s and FLEX/deep options.

Your WR1 and WR2’s are no-brainer starts in your normal fantasy leagues. I’ll highlight them if they have an exceptional matchup or price. We’re likely going to find some inexpensive plays here week in a week out as well, due to the depth at the position. We’ll need to dig a little deeper as we’re entering bye weeks, but I hope to continue picking winners for you.

Scoring and other settings can be found here.

WR1

Antonio Brown – TB @ PIT ($7,900)

I can’t get away from Antonio Brown, and neither should you. His price is deflated a bit this week, but I’m not sure why. He’s facing the Browns, but don’t let Joe Haden scare you. Through five weeks, Cleveland ranks dead last against WR1’s according to the Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) metric at Football Outsiders. I like taking a look at a player’s projected output for the week in relation to their price on DraftKings to give me a ballpark of their cost per point. It takes a little work but it’s worth it. I try and focus on guys that are under $400/point as a rule of thumb, and Brown is around $350 this week. That’s great value for a top option.

Jordy Nelson – GB @ MIA ($7,700)

Using some of the measures that make Antonio Brown shine, I love me some Jordy this week. His price per point is in the similar $360 range as Antonio Brown, and Miami is second to last in WR1 DVOA. Nelson is Aaron Rodgers’ deep threat and preferred red zone target, something that few wideouts can say. I don’t have to sell you on the player, and this week the price is right.

WR2

Brandon Marshall – CHI @ ATL ($6,300)

This just feels wrong. Marshall in the WR2 section?!? Well, according to his price, that’s exactly where he is. I’m all in on B-Marsh this week against Atlanta and their 26th ranked pass defense (DVOA). Marshall was not pleased with his limited targets last week despite, according to him, being at full strength. Look for that to change this week down in the Georgia Dome. At $350 per point, Marshall will be in my daily lineups this week.

Michael Floyd – WAS @ AZ ($5,400)

Michael Floyd is worth a look, especially if Carson Palmer is back this week. Floyd leads the league in average depth of target at 19.8 yards per, which speaks to his big play ability, and that’s fits Carson Palmer’s skill set. I have Floyd as my 16th WR this week, and he comes in as the 29th rank wide receiver according to price. Value. A conservative Week 6 projection would still land his price per point around $370, which gives me the green light.

WR3

Rueben Randle – NYG @PHI ($4,600)

OTD is opponent-adjusted touchdowns. It’s an advanced metric that weights every carry/target a player gets and converts the data into one number that indicates a player’s scoring opportunity. With just two touchdowns on the season and an OTD of 4.1, that tells us that, with some positive regression to the mean, Randle is likely to find the end zone more frequently moving forward. His seven red zone targets are tied for third most in the league with Antonio Brown, Brandon Marshall and Jeremy Maclin, some pretty hefty names. This is the same Eagles defense that nearly sent Kurt Cousins to the Hall of Fame after his Week 3 outing. Randle, roughly $365 per point, scores this week. Lock it up.

Allen Robinson – JAX @ TEN ($3,700)

Clearly Blake Bortles’ primary target, Robinson is an interesting player moving forward. The efficiency isn’t there yet for this rookie duo, but look for that to improve as the season progresses. At $319 per point, Robinson is a cost effective way to spend $3,700 this week. Ranked as WR52 according to price, I have him inside my top 40 at the position this week.

FLEX/Lottery Ticket

Andre Holmes -SD @ OAK ($3,000)

This week’s winning lotto ticket is Holmes. This is his second time in this spot, and he came up roses last time. The minimum price of $3,000 has served up some gems in this space, including Louis Murphy last week and Allen Hurns in week 1. You’re welcome. Let the ride continue on the west coast this week, as Holmes will likely benefit from the Raiders pass-happy attack (70/30 run-pass split so far). It’s not hard to forecast a scenario where Oakland is behind early and forced to throw often. At $297 per point, Holmes is your guy. 

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