1. Andrew Luck

Luck is clear-cut QB1 in my eyes. He’s just 25 years old and coming off a season in which he threw the ball 616 times for 4,761 yards and 40 touchdowns. He also added 274 yards and three TDs on the ground. This season, the Colts added a trio of former Miami Hurricanes in Andre Johnson, Phillip Dorsett and Frank Gore. All three men will help Luck immensely. Johnson is a future Hall of Famer who is coming off an 85 catch, 936 yard season with the nightmarishly bad Texans QBs throwing him the ball. Gore is a proven asset both as a pass-catcher and in pass protection. First-round pick Dorsett is said to be the fastest player to ever come out of Miami. The only concern is the subpar offensive line. Still, a 50 touchdown season is not out of the question for Luck.

2. Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers is a distant second to Luck. As great as Rodgers is, there are some factors that scare me. Do not be confused, Rodgers is the best quarterback in the NFL, just not the top fantasy QB. His weapons are tremendous and there’s little doubt they’ll be putting up monster numbers. However, late in the season things tend to not go so smoothly. We have seen him deal with concussion, leg and ankle injuries during the fantasy playoffs and the weather in Wisconsin can get pretty nasty. He doesn’t have the luxury of playing in a dome and facing AFC South teams twice a year.

3. Ben Roethlisberger

Big Ben is right behind Rodgers. He’s in line for a monstrous year. He is coming off by far the best fantasy season of his career. He threw for 4,952 yards and had a TD-to-INT ratio of 32-to-9, which includes back-to-back six touchdown games against the Ravens and Colts. At home his TD-to-INT ratio was a ludicrous 23-to-4. He had the league’s top fantasy wideout Antonio Brown and the official NFL Fantasy Football MVP running back Le’Veon Bell. Bell caught 83 passes for 854 yards and three TDs, while Brown caught an unbelievable 129 receptions for 1,689 yards and 13 TDs. Still, the offense didn’t really click until breakout rookie Martavis Bryant burst on to the scene against the Texans Week 7. He caught six TDs in his first four games and finished the season with 26 receptions, 549 yards and eight TDs in just 10 games. Bryant is a raw talent that has the potential to vastly improve this season. Roethlisberger may have the best arsenal of weapons in the entire NFL. He has always had the talent but not an artillery of this caliber. Bell is a very rare talent and makes all the difference in the world as we saw in the Wild Card round of this year’s playoffs. His suspension has been reduced to just two games now. I not only expect him match last season’s numbers, I expect him to surpass them with more consistency.

4. Russel Wilson

Wilson was a fantasy star on the rise, all he was lacking was a big target that could stretch the seam and be a reliable red zone target. Enter Jimmy Graham. The Seahawks couldn’t have found a better fit. If Chris Matthews can build off his Super Bowl performance, Wilson could actually have some decent weapons to throw to for the first time in his career. Couple that with the fact he’s the NFL’s top rushing quarterback and he’s an extremely dangerous duel-threat QB. Last season he rushed for 849 yards and six touchdowns. If he can improve his 20 passing TDs he will be a fantasy superstar. Graham and Matthews could help him do just that.

5. Tom Brady

This is based on the fact that I don’t believe Brady will face a suspension and if he does it will be significantly reduced. Last season Brady threw for 4,109, 33 TDs and nine INTs. After tearing his ACL the previous season, Rob Gronkowski was on a snap count of some sort for the majority of 2014. With Gronk 100 percent to kickoff next season, that should prevent another slow start. Even more importantly, Brady is going to have a massive chip on his shoulder. An angry Brady is a horrifying thought for opposing defenses. Last time the Pats were accused of cheating, he threw for 4,806 yards and 50 TDs. Obviously I’m not predicting those numbers, but he will put up top-five fantasy QB in points per game.

6. Ryan Tannehill

In 2014, Tannehill threw for 4,045 yards, 27 TDs and 12 INTs. He also rushed for 311 yards and a TD. He started running the read option around Week 5 and it looks like it’s here to stay. He had a five game span when he ran for at least 35 yards. Look for Tannehill and his skill position players to continue to grow and mature in Bill Lazor’s offensive system. It has taken him time to develop but he may just be the real deal. He’s poised to take that next step. Tannehill is improving drastically. His TD-to-INT ratio has gone from 12-13 to 27-12 and his completion percentage has jumped eight percent in just two years. He was a QB1 last season and I don’t see him taking a step back with another year of experience and a better supporting cast. Jarvis Landry is entering his second season and is a candidate for triple-digit catches. The Dolphins also added my offensive Rookie of the Year pick DeVante Parker in the first round and acquired big-play threat Kenny Stills from New Orleans. Jordan Cameron and even Jay Ajayi should also help with their red zone woes. This is the year Tannehill distinguishes himself as a perennial QB1. He has looked fantastic at training camp.

7. Eli Manning

Manning quietly had a very strong 2014 fantasy season. He threw for 4,410 yards, 30 TDs and just 14 interceptions last season and finished as the fantasy QB10. It took a bit of time but he really adapted well to the Giants’ new offense. This season he is expected to have Odell Beckham Jr and Victor Cruz for all 16 games. Although, I am a bit skeptical about Cruz’s durability after tearing his patellar tendon last year. Rueben Randle also seems to be rapidly improving. The biggest addition may be Shane Vereen coming out of the backfield. He should serve as a security blanket and help immensely. As long as the offensive line can protect him, Manning should have a huge year.

8. Peyton Manning

Manning is 39 years old and is coming off a serious quad injury. He already has neck issues and is downright immobile in the pocket. Luckily he has mastered the art of cowering into the fetal position. The long-time dome quarterback has a history of struggling in inclement weather. The fact that he now plays in Denver, Colorado is already an issue come winter. He is a 39 year old that has had multiple neck surgeries and playing in a cold moist environment, which he struggled in when he was at the peak of his athletic prowess. That is not a promising recipe for success. The bottom line is Manning is no longer a 16-game QB. He has about eight-to-nine game in him at best and then deteriorates considerably. It was clear by watching film that Manning was a shell of his former self for the last seven games of the season. His passes fluttered and defenses were daring the former MVP to beat them deep or outside. Corners were sitting on routes and safeties were taking more risks than ever before and having great success. Through the first nine games Manning totaled 2,912 yards, 29 touchdowns and six interceptions, which averages out to 323.5 yards, 3.2 TDs and .6 INTs-per-game. Over the last seven games, Manning totaled 1,815 yards, 10 touchdowns and eight interceptions. That averages out to 259.2 yards, 1.4 TDs and more than one INT-per-game. He has truly earned the nickname of Mr. October. Your best bet with Manning is to draft him and trade him around Thanksgiving. His value will never be higher and he’ll let you down after that.

9. Drew Brees

Brees has seen his numbers steadily decline over the past three seasons. Gradually he has fallen out of the ranks of the elite. He is a 36-year-old quarterback that is barely 200 pounds and has a serious shoulder surgery on his resume’. The loss of Darren Sproles to the Philadelphia Eagles clearly hurt him. Now this offseason he lost two of his most dangerous weapons in Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills. The Saints are rebuilding and have made it clear they want to focus more on rushing and defense. That may help turn around their losing ways, nevertheless, it won’t help Brees’ fantasy production. This is the year to pass on him. He’ll be overdrafted due to his name. His production is also not well distributed. He’s great at home but average at best on the road. Brandin Cooks is the glimmer of hope for Brees. Nonetheless, if he’s relying on C.J. Spiller and Josh Hill, it’s going to be a long year.

10. Matthew Stafford

Golden Tate had a breakout year, Theo Riddick played well catching the ball out of the backfield and Joique Bell gave them a legitimate running game in the second half of the season. Calvin Johnson missed some time, however, despite pretty much missing five games, he still caught 71 passes for 1,077 yards and eight touchdowns. Stafford threw the ball more than 600 times, racked up 4,257 yards and threw for a career low 12 interceptions. And he finished as the QB15 behind Jay Cutler? This is because he only threw 22 touchdowns and fumbled a career-high six times. His 4,257 yards were also a career-low in a 16-game season. These numbers are a bit of an anomaly and I expect him to bounce back this season as a low-end QB1.