2015 Fantasy Football Team Preview: Oakland Raiders
With all speculation of relocation, the one place that the Raiders have not budged from is the bottom half of the AFC West. They have not finished higher than third since 2002, where they made it to the Super Bowl and so far, has been their last playoff appearance. After several years of mediocrity and a severe lack of talent, those two factors finally paid a dividend in the 2014 NFL Draft where they were able to add pass rusher Khalil Mack and starting quarterback Derek Carr. Although those two acquisitions, along with other veteran signings, didn’t help immediately, they did help shape up some sort of foundation and identity that Raider Nation has been desperately searching for.
They’ll certainly try to improve not only their 3-13 record and last place finish in the AFC West, but their team stats across the board. The reason why their draft pick was so high was because they finished in the basement for just about every category. Offensively, they finished second to last in points per game (15.8), 26th in pass yards per game (204.7) and dead last in rush yards per game (77.5). Oakland fairs only a little better on the other side of the ball, where they finished 16th in pass yards against per game (238.1), 22nd in rush yards against per game (119.4) and then plummet to last in points against per game (28.3). It’s a different feel coming into this season. Unlike past years, the future definitely has a bright light at the end of the tunnel for the men in black.
Quarterback
Ever since the 2003 season and ending with the 2014 NFL Draft, the Raiders went through an eye popping 16 starting quarterbacks in that time span ever since Rich Gannon retired. Some of those quarterbacks include below league average talents such as Andrew Walter, Bruce Gradkowski, Terrelle Pryor and, my personal favorite, JaMarcus Russell. The second the Raiders took Derek Carr with the 36th overall pick in that draft, that problem ceased to exist. While no one would say that Carr is a franchise quarterback or a fantasy team’s QB1 (at least yet), his numbers, especially with a shortage of talent that surrounds him, suggest he can develop into something close to that. By season’s end he finished as a top 20 quarterback as a rookie playing in an AFC West that features three top 10 pass defenses and also not really having a true number one threat (or a number two threat). Carr was given the keys to the Raiders offense (if last years Raiders were a car, they’d be an ’81 Honda) and he did a commendable job with such limited resources.
His targets consisted of James Jones, who’s a number three receiver that was masquerading as a number one, Andre Holmes, who caught less than half of the passes thrown to him and Mychal Rivera who might not even be the starting tight end come September. Despite all of this, he finished a respectable 15th in touchdown passes, as a rookie, ahead of names such as Cam Newton, Andy Dalton and Russell Wilson. Carr should still be viewed as a team’s QB2, but with the additions of Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree, his numbers should increase across the board and could make a case for a team’s QB1. Expect Carr to hover around the 4,000 yard mark and hit 25 touchdown passes. If you really wanted him, you can most likely snag him off of the waiver wire or free agency.
Christian Ponder and Matt McGloin will back up Carr, so unless he gets hurt, those two quarterbacks will watch from the sidelines.
Running Back
One of the reasons Oakland finished dead last in rushing in 2014 was because the two headed monster of Maurice Jones-Drew and Darren McFadden were downright horrific. The two combined for just 630 yards while managing to average just 3.18 yards per carry. The Raiders’ backfield finally got some life in December in the form of Latavius Murray. Murray goes into the 2015 season as the new number one running back and looks to pick up where he left off last season where he ran for 413 of his 424 yards in the last six weeks of the season. To put in perspective to how solid Murray’s end of the season is that he took the starting job over McFadden in December and only trailed McFadden by 10 fantasy points. Given a full 16 games as a starter and the bulk of the carries, expect Murray to make a push for 1,000 yard plateau and finishing off with around seven scores.
Former third overall pick, Trent Richardson will back up Murray, but shouldn’t see a ton of touches and the only he’ll see any touches is if he makes the team, which is a 50-50 chance. The reason for that is speculated as him trying to cut his weight, which is back down to what it was when he played at Alabama. Anyway. If he does make the team, I think a change of scenery would be beneficial to him, where I can see him rushing for around 350 yards and about three touchdowns. Unless Richardson magically turns back to his 2012 self, he’s not worth owning in a standard league. The third string, Roy Helu, hasn’t seen significant touches since his rookie season in 2011 and that should continue on this season as Murray and to a lesser extent, Richardson, should see the majority of the carries. However, Helu can be useful as a receiver out of the backfield as he can be counted to pitch in around 400 yards and a few touchdowns as a receiver. By season’s end, he can even end up as the number one running back on the depth chart if Murray falters and Richardson continues his downward spiral.
Wide Receivers
One of the biggest reasons as to why I think Derek Carr will be such an improved quarterback is that Raiders general manager, Reggie McKenzie, was finally able to reel in some quality talent. The most notable acquisition was standout Alabama wide receiver, Amari Cooper. Cooper was far and away the best receiver in college football last year and I expect him to be the best rookie receiver in this draft class. Cooper will immediately make Carr a better quarterback and with his elite route running, hands and big play ability, which also has some scouts comparing his game to Jordy Nelson. Sure, Cooper isn’t Nelson (yet) and Carr certainly isn’t Aaron Rodgers, Nelson is a number one receiver on Green Bay and also just finished third in scoring for wide receivers. I don’t see a way in which Cooper finishes out of the top 15 among all wide receivers, as I see him eclipsing the 1,000 yard mark and hauling in ten touchdowns. He’s my rookie of the year pick and who I think is going to be the best wide out from the ’15 draft. For anyone doing a rookie draft, he should be going somewhere in the first three picks. In a standard draft, he’ll figure to go in the sixth round (ADP at 57.6) and would be a savvy early round pick in a dynasty draft. Be comfortable with him being your WR2 or FLEX, in fact, if he’s your receiver of the future in a dynasty format, you’re in good hands.
The one way he’ll achieve this is if free agent pick up Michael Crabtree, can be a consistent second receiving option. Crabtree has been a slight disappointment since he was the tenth overall pick in 2009, but has still managed a good but not great fantasy option. He’s only recorded an 1,000 yard season just once and more than five touchdowns twice, in his six year career. Last season, Crabtree finished 50th in scoring among wide receivers, but was also coming off a torn achilles. He should be a nice complement to Cooper and a reliable second option for Carr. Don’t bother drafting Crabtree; in most leagues, he’ll be either on the waiver wire, free agency or on someone’s bench, so he’ll be easy to get. He’ll finish better than his 50th final rating among receivers, but most likely not better than 40th. Behind Crabtree on the depth chart is Andre Holmes, who by season’s end has a chance to be ahead of Crabtree.
Holmes was the leader in yards receiving on last year’s squad and should see his numbers increase a bit. His numbers were similar to Crabtree’s and given enough targets, should have a pretty decent year. He was the leading wide out in receiving yards, despite having 26 less catches than James Jones, who was second in receiving yards. That stat, along with his 14.7 yards per catch (23rd out of 142) and his nine catches of 20+ yards show he’s no stranger to a big play. He’d be a big sleeper pick if only he wasn’t the fourth option on offense. Don’t bother picking him up unless Cooper or Crabtree goes down with an injury. If so, Holmes could have a bit of a breakout year. Rod Streater, Brice Butler and Kenbrell Thompkins rounds out the receiver corps and will not make any significant impact this season.
Tight End
It’s a bit of a strange spot for the tight end position in the Oaktown. Mychal Rivera, who projects to be the starter in week one, finished as a top 20 fantasy tight end and a legitimate red zone threat, as all four of his touchdowns were inside the 20. But his starter status appeared to be in question when the Raiders selected Miami (FL) tight end Clive Walford in the third round. Rivera should get the bulk of the targets early on in the season and should post respectable numbers, while getting his fair share of red zone targets. However, Walford was drafted as the tight end of the future and will be eased into that role by the middle of the season. Both tight ends should get significant playing time this season, but none to warrant a starting job in a lineup. Whoever is the starter should be on one’s team with the purpose of being on the bench.
Defense
First off, there should be no reason why Oakland’s D/ST should be owned this season. We all know the Raiders season last year was an absolute mess and it won’t change much going into this year. The defense, though, was hard to read at times. They finished at 16th and 22nd in pass yards against per game and rush yards against per game, respectively. So they were in the middle of the pack when it came to yardage, but when it came to scoring they are at the very end of the pack. Khalil Mack, Justin Tuck and rookie Mario Edwards hope to improve their 22 total sacks last year (T-30th), but in the end, this defense probably won’t get you many sacks. Another reason why they should be avoided is they lack the ability to turn the ball over, which they could only do 14 times. From those 14 takeaways, nine were interceptions and four of those picks came from a 38 year old Charles Woodson. While still productive, would you want to own a defense whose prime source of takeaways is someone who debuted 17 years ago? The only way for the Raiders interception rate to increase is if third year corner D.J. Hayden can develop into the shutdown cornerback Oakland envisioned he would be when they drafted him. Losing Tyvon Branch won’t help the defense either, as he was considered to be their most reliable defensive player. They do add Curtis Lofton and Malcolm Smith, though, who will try and improve the run defense. The one thing Oakland has to do is limit the amount of points they give up. They gave up a league worst 28.6 ppg and no one is winning anything if you can’t score more points than the opponent.
Player to Watch
The biggest player to watch will be by far the most exciting player Oakland has had in years in Amari Cooper. Cooper has all world talent and will be a must watch on NFL RedZone every Sunday. Derek Carr is a good enough quarterback to not waste Cooper’s talent and Cooper should not only make Carr better, but the entire offense better. He’s going to be the best rookie in this draft class this year and will propel a ton of fantasy football teams in the playoffs. Cooper is going to see the majority of the targets so expect him to easily hit 1,000 yards and score plenty of touchdowns. Don’t be shocked if he ends up as a top 10 wide out.
Key Stat
Last season, the Raiders were just flat out not a good football team. Sure, it’s easy to point out their 3-13 record and they still wouldn’t be the worst, but in some ways they were the worst. In 2014, the Raiders with a league worst -199 point differential. A differential that big of a margin can be attributed to a horrific offense and a porous defense. That differential should change with an experienced Derek Carr and the additions of Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree on the offense. Adding Curtis Lofton and Malcolm Smith also helps stop the other team from scoring so much, so look for the Raiders point differential to go up. And most importantly; just win, baby.
Article written exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com by @JoeGolding94.