2015 Fantasy Football: Week 3 DFS Tight Ends
It is on to Week 3 of the NFL and Daily Fantasy Football at DraftKings. I’m back to provide recommendations for Tight Ends for your weekly lineup. This week is the perfect week to take a dip into the Daily Fantasy pool as you can win $1,200,000! Daily Fantasy can help you with lineup decision for your season-long league and give you another team to root on during the weekend.
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DraftKings Tight End Recommendations
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We didn’t quite see the scoring outburst from TEs, but we saw that Gronk was still Gronk and we might have a new TE hero in Baltimore. Injuries have begun to crop up in the TE ranks so we’ll have a couple of new names to consider. And we’ve got a couple of weeks of data now so it looks like we’ve found our new “always play the TE against Defense X).
Finally, a gentle reminder on the scoring for Tight Ends – this is a PPR site so remember that when selecting players. The full for scoring for Tight Ends is at the end of this column.
Tight Ends can also be used in the flex position at DraftKings. However, with the entire world of RBs and WRs at your disposal Rob Gronkowski is probably the only TE you’d consider as a flex option. TEs still make a viable option at the flex spot as long as the pricing continues to be soft.
Let’s take a look at a couple of options at each price point. For those who are new to the column, I’ll generally look at a couple of options in each pricing tier broken out based on the socioeconomic status of 1970s sitcom families. And I’ll always cover Rob Gronkowski.
I’ll mention Football Outsiders a lot over the season – the passes per game and yards per game stats I use are from Football Outsiders. Here is the link to Football Outsiders’ 2013 stats. FO stats for 2014 are here and I like to use the defense versus types of receivers to fill out my rosters. And we now have 2015 stats located here – now with receiver types!
The huge spread between the floor and the ceiling in TE pricing continues as our most expensive option is $7,400 and our floor remains $2,500. We’ll see how long that continues.
Teams on bye: None
Over/Under
We’ve added a new feature this year highlighting the top totals (over/under) in Vegas for the week.
The top over/under totals for Week 3 (according to Vegas Insider consensus):
Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers (o/u 49 points)
Pittsburgh Steelers at St. Louis Rams (o/u 47.5 points)
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (o/u 47.5 points)
So, we have slim pickings this week in terms of high scoring affairs.
The Gronk Tier
Rob Gronkowski | Patriots | $7,400 – At this point, I’m not sure it’s worth analyzing Gronk each week. He’s money in the bank no matter the matchup. The Pats face off against the Jags who held Greg Olsen to one catch on three targets. But, no one is Gronk and he’s matchup proof.
The Jeffersons
Jimmy Graham | Seahawks | $5,800 – So, you can play this one of two ways. Either Graham’s tirade this week about his unhappiness gets the Seahawks to force feed him the ball. Or, the Seahawks won’t (or can’t) change their offense to get Graham the ball. I’m leaning toward staying away from him again even if Pete Carroll said he wants to get him more involved. It was an odd signing at the time and continues to mystify me to this day.
Travis Kelce | Chiefs | $5,000 – Kelce’s salary dropped $100 from last week and he gets the Packers this week. He’s the focal point of the passing game and should be some looks this week. The Pack did give up five catches (on seven targets) and a TD to Martellus Bennett in Week 1. I can see that performance as Kelce’s floor this week and with the highest total on the board, he’s in play this week.
All in the Family
Greg Olsen | $4,800 | Panthers – Olsen’s 14 targets last week are heartwarming. His six catches? Not so much. He’s the number one receiver in Carolina and is going to continue to be force fed the ball. Olsen faces the Saints who have been solid against TEs. However, Olsen is a target monster and will get opportunities all day.
Tyler Eifert | $4,800 | Bengals – Ok. Maybe Tyler Eifert isn’t the second coming of Todd Christensen. His matchup with the Ravens on the road isn’t exactly a recipe for success either. Yes, the Ravens lost Terrell Suggs and are now struggling to get to the QB. But, they’ve generally defended the TE well and I’d rather not pay up for Eifert’s one high-flying week.
Martellus Bennett | $4,600 | Bears – Bennett looks to be about the only healthy and talented receiver amongst the Bears WRs and TEs. The bad news is the Bears travel to Seattle to face an 0-2 Seahawks team that needs a win badly. And he may have Jimmy Clausen throwing to him. The ‘hawks have given up TDs in each of the first two weeks, but this may be too tough a mountain for Bennett to climb. I do like him as a GPP option as he should get the opportunities.
Jason Witten | $4,500 | Cowboys – Witten says he’s healthy and ready to go for Week 3 after spraining both ankles and a knee last week. That’s a bit much for me so I’ll pass this week.
Julius Thomas | $4,500 | Jaguars – He remains out for this week.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins | $4,100 | Buccaneers – He’s out for the next four to six weeks or more with a shoulder injury.
Good Times
Jordan Cameron | $3,800 | Dolphins – Cameron has a pretty reasonable matchup against a Bills defense that has given up a TD in each of the first two games. The Bills stats are skewed a bit as they faced Gronk in Week 2. That said, he’s battling a groin injury and may not be 100% if he does go. So, tread lightly here.
Jordan Reed | $3,800 | Washington – See below in our Thursday preview.
Heath Miller | $3,500 | Steelers – Miller’s touches may be curtailed a bit with the return of Le’Veon Bell, but he’s still an option in the red zone. And the Rams have been surprisingly friendly to TEs allow six catches in each of the first two games.
Delanie Walker | $3,400 | Titans – Walker missed last week with a wrist injury, but it looks like he might suit up this week and that’s a good thing. Marcus Mariota looks his way often and the Colts haven’t exactly faced any good TEs yet so Walker is a nice under the radar play.
Kyle Rudolph | $3,300 | Vikings – Rudolph has been THE red zone target for the Vikings through the first two weeks. And, look here! It says right here that the Chargers have given up TDs in each of the first two weeks to TEs.
Eric Ebron | $3,300 | Lions – Ebron’s been quite the revelation this year, but he may be in for a tougher road this week as he could be without Matthew Stafford at 100%. He also faces a Denver defense that has been pretty good against the TE so far this year.
Dwayne Allen | $3,300 | Colts – Allen is nursing an ankle injury and will likely not be 100% if he plays Sunday. Pass.
Ladarius Green | $3,300 | Chargers – Two concussions in 11 days isn’t good. I’d be surprised if he is cleared to play this week.
Gavin Escobar | $2,600 | Cowboys – If Witten sits, Escobar makes a nice play. Only in play if Witten is inactive.
Gary Barnidge | $2,500 | Browns – Who? Exactly. The Browns play the Raiders. The Raiders made Tyler Eifert look like Rob Gronkowski and Crockett Gilmore look like the second coming of Shannon Sharpe for the Ravens. What can they do for Gary Barnidge? Well, the Raiders have given up two TDs in each week on 18 targets to the top TE for each team. Will he get two TDs? You don’t know unless you try.
John Phillips | $2,500 | Chargers – He’ll likely draw the start if Ladarius Green missed this week. He ain’t much to look at so, close your eyes, here we go, playing at the talent show. He’s a DEEEEEEEP play this week though he does get the Vikings this week who have given up 10 targets to TEs in back to back weeks.
Thursday Game – Washington at New York Giants
Jordan Reed ($3,800) has been the most consistent receiver for Washington the first two weeks. And I don’t see that stopping now. The Giants have struggled the first two weeks with defending the TE. They probably will get Jon Beason back at middle linebacker so that will help. But, Kirk Cousins will continue to look his way and I like him if you are playing the Thursday slate.
Larry Donnell ($3,100) for the Giants can be probably be ignored. He’s not a big part of the offense (such as the Giants offense is right now). Washington has given up some chances to TEs (14 targets in the first two weeks), but haven’t allowed a score yet. If you squint, you can see some value, but it’s hard to take him this week.
Good luck in Week 3!
DraftKings Tight End Scoring
10 Receiving Yards = +1PT (+0.1PT per yard is awarded)
Reception = +1PT
Receiving TD = +6PTs
100+ Yard Receiving Game = +3PTs
Fumble Lost = -1PT
2 Point Conversion (Pass, Run, or Catch) = +2PTs
Offensive Fumble Recovery TD = +6PTs
The full DraftKings scoring system is here.