Despite a somewhat shocking change of scenery for Pujols, the new digs don’t figure to change Albert’s production all that much.  Albert will still be Albert.  The real fantasy impact will be felt by the guys that hit in front of him.  The problem is that it’s tough to figure out who those guys will be.  Bobby Abreu and his OBP skills could make him interesting if he’s hitting in the two hole, but who knows if it will be Abreu, Aybar, Kendrick, Trout, or Bourjos in those two slots ahead of the power hitters.

Same league, same division, better ballpark.  Like Pujols, the production from Wilson is unlikely to change much in his new location.  The ballpark could help some, but CJ has always been pretty good about keeping the ball on the ground and in the park.  It’s not as if the new ballpark is going to cover up a weakness of his.  And the ballpark help may just simply come in the form of offsetting some regression as CJ’s ERA has been quite a bit lower than his xFIP in two years as a starter.  All in all, it’s probably status quo for CJ this year.

Had the Marlins signed Pujols as well, you could have forecasted a pretty decent uptick in runs for Reyes.  Albert went to  the Angels though, and the analysis on Reyes is pretty much as it would have been had he stayed in New York.  He’ll still be in a lineup with one stud hitting behind him (now the 22 year old masher, Mike Stanton), and his production is all tied to his ability to stay on the field.  He hasn’t played more than 133 games since 2008, so it’s up to you whether you want to take on the risk or not.

Yawn.  It’s dumb to spend early picks on closers.  As far as I concerned, it would not have mattered where these two signed.  They’ll be going too early to ever deserve warranting your attention on draft day.

Now these are the types of closer transactions fantasy owners should give a damn about.  Because it’s not too difficult to find a closer who can get you 30+ saves late in drafts (*), these are the names you should be scrutinizing in your effort to find cheap saves.

Despite recording just 14 saves last year, Nathan may go a little higher in drafts than this 18th round or later target range of mine simply because he still has some name value.  Santos is likely to be out of that range as well because he was one of the value closers who got 30 saves last season.

From a pure baseball perspective, this trade made a lot of sense for both teams.  But from a fantasy perspective, neither player is likely to benefit from this deal.  Sanchez moves to the tougher league and, as a pitcher whose value is based on strikeouts, will take a decent hit in his K totals by not being in the NL anymore (**).

As for Melky, he was likely to come down off his 2011 high as it were (***), and the move to San Francisco’s ballpark isn’t going to help mitigate the regression.  Because of his stellar 2011, Melky will most certainly be overvalued and is a stay away for smart fantasy owners.

Believe it or not, this may be my favorite signing so far this offseason. 

Capuano was sneakily good last year.  His 4.55 ERA and 1.35 WHIP might not look too appealing, but they’re not at all indicative of how he really pitched.  Of the things Capuano can control, he was actually quite good.  His 8.13 K/9, 2.56 BB/9, and 3.17 K:BB are all excellent numbers that helped him post a SIERA and xFIP in the 3.60 range.  He had bad luck with balls in play as his .312 BABIP was the 18th highest among starting pitchers. 

If his luck turns around and his recent K numbers are for real, Capuano could easily post a sub-4.00 ERA.  If that happens, he has the potential to provide immense value to fantasy owners.

LA also signed Aaron Harang, but he was much better at home (3.05 ERA) than he was on the road (4.70 ERA) last year, so I’m not touching him outside of Petco.

Aaron Hill is a good baseball player. 

That belief has bit me in the ass (twice), but I stand by that belief.  Upon receiving his first full complement of at-bats in the bigs in 2006 and 2007, he posted consecutive .291 batting averages at ages 24 and 25 while developing some power (17 HR) in his age 25 season.  After missing all but 55 games due to injury in 2008, Hill broke out in a big way in 2009 with a .286 average, 36 HR, and 100+ RBI.  Then disaster struck.  In 2010, the BABIP gods forsook him and he ended up with an impossibly low BABIP of .196 that year.  He failed to turn things around in 2011, so Toronto shipped him to Arizona in late August.

And then things started to get a little better.  In 33 games with the D’Backs he posted a well-above-respectable slash line of .315/.386/.492.  You could credit the turn around to a change of scenery, a nice hitter’s park, or the move to the NL, but I choose to credit the turn around to the fact that it was inevitable.  And unless Hill slept with a daughter of one of the BABIP gods, I’m going to assume the last 33 games of 2011 weren’t some sick, cruel oasis but rather a sign of better days to come.

So I’m hopping right back on the Aaron Hill train because Aaron Hill is a good baseball player.

As a Rangers fan, I’d like to take this opportunity to say SUCK IT, MIKE SCIOSCIA!!!