College Football DFS: Week 11 – Early Slate
Below are positional rankings for the 16-game early slate of Week 11 DraftKings CFB contests on Saturday with some commentary along the way. Keep in mind that salary has a huge impact on a player’s ranking.
Matchup Chart
Below is a matchup chart I create each week that includes information from Vegas and information on each team’s opponent in terms of their defensive strength. The defensive numbers are rankings from Football Outsiders’ S&P+ ratings. All the info is color coded as follows from most favorable to the offense to least favorable: purple-blue-green-yellow-orange-red-burgundy.
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Quarterback
- Marquise Williams – $8,400 – North Carolina
- Patrick Mahomes – $8,500 – Texas Tech
- Trevone Boykin – $10,100 – TCU
- Joe Hubener – $6,500 – Kansas State
Let’s start with the guy ranked third here, Trevone Boykin. As you can see in the chart above, Boykin’s opponent, Kansas, has a terrible defense. They rate 127th in total defense in the S&P+ ratings out of a possible 128 teams. It’s hard to imagine TCU not hanging at least 50 on the Jayhawks in this one, so the only question is whether Boykin is affordable.
Boykin probably needs to get 36-37 points or so to be worth his salary, and he has at least 40 in each of his last seven games with an average of 46.08 in that span. So it’s not really a question of whether he hits value but whether his price allows you to build a good enough roster around him. The cost of Boykin plus Joe Hubener is about equal to the cost of the top two ranked guys, so whether you roster Boykin ultimately comes down to how comfortable you feel with Hubener or another cheap quarterback.
The argument for Hubener is that he’s a running quarterback against a team that can’t stop the run. Hubener carried the ball 29 times for 153 yards and two touchdowns last week against Baylor. This week he’ll face a Texas Tech team that ranks 119th in total defense and 123rd against the run. The argument against Hubener is that he has finished with less than 10 DK points in three of his last five games. To be fair, he had a combined 80 DK points in the other two in his last five. So if you can live with this boom-or-bust option, Hubener and Boykin might be the way to go at QB.
If you need a bit more stability in your life, consider Marquise Williams and Patrick Mahomes. I have them ranked above Boykin and Hubener just because they represent less variance and thus probably make more sense in cash games. Williams is averaging 27.7 DK points per game this season, and he would hit value almost exactly if he gets to his average. Anything above that is value gravy, and he’s coming off a 44.76-point performance. He has an above average matchup against Miami who rates 60th in total defense and struggles against the run. Williams has 558 yards and six touchdowns on the ground this year. As for Mahomes, he is averaging 35 DK points and would surpass value with an “average” performance. He’s on the other side of that Kansas State game, which has the highest total of the slate, and Tech is the favorite.
Running Back
- Wayne Gallman – $6,500 – Clemson
- Ezekiel Elliott – $8,400 – Ohio State
- Charles Jones – $4,100 – Kansas State
- Elijah Hood – $6,600 – North Carolina
- Aaron Green – $6,900 – TCU
- Kelvin Taylor – $6,100 – Florida
Like Boykin, is Ezekiel Elliott affordable? On one hand, he has reached 100 yards in every game this season and has scored at least once in all but one game. He averages 30.5 DK points per game and is as reliable as they come. But his matchup is not ideal against an Illinois team that rates 10th in total defense but is at least better against the pass than the run. So if you can’t afford him, that’s OK. But if stability is your thing, Elliott may be your guy.
The top ranked guy at this position is Wayne Gallman. Gallman had a fairly tough matchup last week with Florida State but managed to get to 100 yards and a score, something he has now done in three straight games and in four of his last five. In the first four games of the season he either got to 100 yards or at least one score but never both until the fifth game of the season. His matchup this week is considerably easier against a Syracuse team that rates 84th in total defense. For as consistent as he has been recently and as good as the matchup his, he has a reasonable price tag as only the 11th most expensive running back of the slate.
Other backs in Gallman’s price range are Aaron Green, Elijah Hood and Kelvin Taylor. If you don’t want to roster Elliott, these are good RB2 options. We mentioned how good the matchups are for Green and Hood when discussing their quarterbacks, but it bears specifically noting that they’re facing the teams that rate 120th and 119th in run defense, respectively. If there’s a concern with Green it’s volume as he averages 16.5 carries per game, but he touched the ball 24 times last week and has game flow in his favor with TCU being a large favorite. Hood is averaging 19.33 carries in his last three games, and he also has five touchdowns in that span. Volume is less of a concern for him. As for Taylor, he has a nice matchup with South Carolina who rates 91st in total defense and 107th against the run. He’s an option over Hood or Green if you need to save a few hundred bucks.
Charles Jones is a nice cheap flex option or could even be your RB2 if you’re looking to save money at running back. Jones will also have the benefit of the great matchup against Texas Tech, and he has seen his volume tick up recently with 34 carries in his last two games. Jones has only scored three times this year, and Hubener finishes a lot of drives with his legs. But Jones doesn’t necessarily have to score to be worth such a low price tag. But if he does score, and there could be plenty of rushing touchdowns to go around, he could be a very nice value.
Wide Receiver
- Will Fuller – $7,100 – Notre Dame
- KaVontae Turpin – $5,000 – TCU
- Mack Hollins – $4,600 – North Carolina
- Jakeem Grant – $6,500 – Texas Tech
- Travis Rudolph – $4,500 – Florida State
- Michael Thomas – $5,100 – Ohio State
- Jaylen Samuels – $4,900 – NC State
- Deante Burton – $3,400 – Kansas State
- Geronimo Allison – $4,700 – Illinois
Let’s start with the stack candidates of the quarterbacks ranked above. First, with Josh Doctson reportedly having his snaps limited this week, another TCU receiver could have a chance for a big day. The options to capitalize on that are KaVontae Turpin and Kolby Listenbee. I prefer Turpin for a couple of reasons. First, he’s $800 cheaper. Second, he’s been targeted by Boykin much more than Listenbee recently. Turpin has seven receptions in each of the last two games, while Listenbee has seven receptions combined in those two games. Turpin has also flashed his upside this year as he has a four-TD game on record.
For the Tar Heels, Mack Hollins is on a nice little run. He has at least 80 yards receiving and at least one receiving touchdown in three of his last four games. If he only gets to 80 and a score, he’ll easily return value, so he has a fair bit of value potential. As for Texas Tech, Jakeem Grant is really the only reliable option. He is coming off his worst game of the season in which he had five receptions for just eight yards (and a touchdown), but the good news is that he has at least five receptions in every game this year. He’s averaging 25.4 DK points per game, and about 22 DK points is what he needs to get to in order to hit value at his price tag. Only five receivers playing in this slate average more targets per game, so volume isn’t a concern.
The other stack option is Deante Burton. If you’re a bit slow, your main value options this week play for Kansas State. You absolutely do not have to stack Hubener with a receiver given how much he runs, but if he throws even one touchdown pass to Burton, Burton would be worth his price tag. Burton is averaging 9.7 DK points per game and has at least 8.9 DK points in all but one game. Considering 8.5 DK points would get him to value, he’s actually a fairly safe salary relief option.
As for the non-stack options, Will Fuller is the top ranked receiver of the slate. I quite like the matchup for Notre Dame against Wake Forest who rates 66th in total defense and is worse against the pass than they are the run. But I didn’t rank DeShone Kizer because I don’t think he quite belongs in the same price range as Marquise and Mahomes. Fuller is a monster who has scored in all but one game this season and averages 100 yards and 1.33 touchdowns per game. He’s damn near money in the bank.
Other non-stack options include Travis Rudolph, Michael Thomas, Jaylen Samuels and Geronimo Allison. There are reasons to like all four, but you can also poke holes in each one of them as a play.
Rudolph really came on the last two weeks with 11 receptions for 277 yards with three touchdowns, but he did it with Sean Maguire under center. Unfortunately for Rudolph, Everett Golson is back under center this week, and Rudolph never got to 70 yards in any game with Golson under center earlier in the year. As for Thomas, Samuels and Allison, they all have tough matchups as they’ll face the teams that rate 10th, 35th and 1st in total defense. But, Thomas has at least 100 yards or a score in all but one game this year, Samuels has at least seven receptions in each of his last three games, and Allison leads all receivers available in this slate in targets per game with 13. They’re probably more GPP options than cash given their matchups, but they are still worth considering.
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