College Football DFS: Week 11 – Night Slate
Below are positional rankings for the 15-game night slate of Week 11 DraftKings CFB contests on Saturday with some commentary along the way. Keep in mind that salary has a huge impact on a player’s ranking.
Matchup Chart
Below is a matchup chart I create each week that includes information from Vegas and information on each team’s opponent in terms of their defensive strength. The defensive numbers are rankings from Football Outsiders’ S&P+ ratings. All the info is color coded as follows from most favorable to the offense to least favorable: purple-blue-green-yellow-orange-red-burgundy.
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Quarterback
- Greg Ward Jr. – $8,500 – Houston
- Gunner Kiel – $8,000 – Cincinnati
- Travis Wilson – $6,400 – Utah
- Ikaika Woolsey – $4,700 – Hawaii
Greg Ward Jr. had a six game stretch this season where he topped 30 fantasy points in all six games, topped 37 in five of those six games, and topped 48 twice. The problem is that those were the first six games of the season, and this week he’ll play his 10th game. In each of his last three games he had been between 20 and 28 fantasy points. While that might seem discouraging, his recent results have brought his price tag down. At his peak he was running $10,000, but he’s $1,500 cheaper this week. He still has that 40-point upside in a good matchup with Memphis. That game is one of three in this slate with a total of 70 or higher, and Houston is the favorite over Memphis, who rates 94th in total defense.
One of the other games with a total over 70 is Cincinnati-Tulsa, and the Bearcats have the highest team total of the slate at 47. Cincinnati QB Gunner Kiel is working on a three-game stretch of 30-point-plus fantasy performances, and I see no reason why he can’t keep that going against a Tulsa defense that rates 109th in total defense.
I’ve got Ward and Kiel ranked first and second because they have upside, good matchups, and they’re not outrageously priced. There’s little to not like about them. The only reason you wouldn’t roster them is if you wanted to spend big on another position. Spending big on running backs is definitely an option in this slate, and might be a preferable strategy. So if you’re looking for cheaper quarterbacks, here we go.
First up, Utah’s Travis Wilson. Wilson averages 21 fantasy points per game this year, though that average is certainly buoyed by a 44-point performance in Week 4. But in the last two weeks he’s cleared his average for the season by a bit, so he’s going well lately. If he can hit his average again this week, he’ll definitely be worth his salary. But he has a chance to do more than hit his average against an Arizona team that rates 114th in total defense and allows five touchdowns worth of points per game.
Like to gamble? Ikaika Woolsey is your man! Woolsey has a season high of 11.1 fantasy points and managed just 4.78 points last week against a UNLV team that rates 98th in total defense. News flash: this is not a cash game play. This week his matchup gets even better against Fresno State who rates 103rd in total defense and 112th against the pass. Vegas likes Hawaii a bit giving them a team total of 30.5, which is a touch above average for this slate. If Woolsey could just get to 15 fantasy points, he’d return plenty of value at his price point.
Running Back
- Donnel Pumphrey – $8,300 – San Diego State
- Jeremy McNichols – $7,600 – Boise State
- Marteze Waller – $5,000 – Fresno State
- Paul Harris – $4,500 – Hawaii
- Jasen Oden, Jr. – $3,600 – Colorado State
- Tion Green – $4,100 – Cincinnati
As mentioned, there are backs to spend on in this slate, and I think they’re going to be hard to pass up. First, Donnel Pumphrey has been an absolute monster the last four games after starting the season a bit slow. In his last four he has at least 33 fantasy points in each game and is averaging 38.58 fantasy points in that stretch. If he just gets to 30, he’d be worth his price tag. And it’s hard to imagine him not getting to at least 30 against Wyoming who rates 118th in total defense, which is the worst rating of any defense playing in this slate. They also allow more than five yards per carry and over 220 rushing yards per game. If I had to pick between Ward and Pumphrey for the guy most likely to get to 40 fantasy points, I’d go with Pumphrey.
Next up we have Jeremy McNichols who has at least 24 fantasy points in each game this season. Considering that something in the 25-26 point range would make him worth his price tag, he’s a pretty safe play. That’s especially true when you factor in his matchup against New Mexico who rates 102nd in total defense and 103rd against the run. McNichols also has upside with three games of 30-plus fantasy points, including 39- and 42-point performances. Boise State has the second highest team total of the slate, and McNichols is a good way to get exposure to it.
If you’re looking for reliable running backs with lower price tags, let’s go back to that Hawaii-Fresno State game. Fresno rates 113th against the run, so there’s a good chance that running back Paul Harris is the exposure to the Hawaii offense that you want. The concern is that his usage has been a bit spotty at times this season, but he got 20 carries last week and turned them into 190 yards. It’s hard to imagine he won’t be given plenty of opportunities this week coming off that performance. As for Fresno’s Marteze Waller, his usage has not been as spotty. He averages almost 19 carries and just over 80 yards per game this year. His matchup is good, but not quite as good as that of Harris. Hawaii ranks 86th in total defense and 73rd against the run. Waller is maybe the safer play, but Harris has the upside and value potential.
If you’re looking for a cheap back, consider Jasen Oden, Jr. and Tion Green. Oden did not play last week and is listed as questionable this week, but he has received a healthy amount of work when in the lineup this year. He averages 16.25 carries per game and had 13 and 11 carries in his last two games. Even if he only gets 11 carries, he could still deliver plenty of value at such a low price tag. Colorado State will face UNLV who rates 98th in total defense and 116th against the run. At sub-$4,000, 11 carries in that matchup would be enough for him to be worth rostering. If he doesn’t go, Tion Green of Cincinnati is a cheap option in a good matchup, but he’s hard to trust because Cincy leans heavily on the passing game.
Wide Receiver
- Demarcus Ayers – $5,500 – Houston
- Thomas Sperbeck – $6,200 – Boise State
- Britain Covey – $4,400 – Utah
- Kenny Lawler – $5,600 – California
- Gabe Marks – $6,000 – Washington State
- Thomas Duarte – $5,600 – UCLA
- Marcus Kemp – $3,300 – Hawaii
- Jordan Villamin – $3,600 – Oregon State
- Shaq Washington – $6,100 – Cincinnati
If you decide to roster Ward, you pretty much have to stack him with Demarcus Ayers, even though Ward does plenty of damage with his legs. And even if you don’t roster Ward, Ayers is a very affordable target. He doesn’t have fewer than five receptions or 50 yards in any game this season, so he’s got a nice floor. And he averages 6.7 receptions and 85 yards per game along with 21.9 fantasy points per game, which would make him more than worth his price tag Saturday night.
Other stack options include Utah’s Britain Covey, Hawaii’s Marcus Kemp and Cincinnati’s Shaq Washington. Covey disappeared a bit in the middle of the season, but in his last four games he has 20 receptions for 237 yards. He’s not a stud receiver or anything, but he’s cheap and Arizona rates 121st against the pass. Kemp is also cheap, very cheap. If you gamble on Woolsey in a GPP, you might as well stack him with a cheap receiver. Kemp is the cheaper of two options for Hawaii with Devan Stubblefied ($3,900) being the other. Kemp had a couple of big games early in the year without Woolsey under center, and Stubblefield had a big game in Week 8, also without Woolsey throwing to him. And finally, If you decide to go with Kiel, pair him with Washington who leads Cincinnati receptions (59), yards (704) and touchdowns (5). But Washington is not a must-play if you’re not rostering Kiel.
The best non-stack option is Boise’s Thomas Sperbeck. Sperbeck has at least 150 yards receiving or at least one score in each of his last six games, and he’s averaging 29.18 fantasy points in that stretch. He would only need to get to about 20 fantasy points to hit value at this price tag. If you can’t manage to roster McNichols, which is probably impossible to do if you roster Pumphrey, you pretty much have to roster Sperbeck to get exposure to Boise.
Aside from Sperbeck, there are plenty of other options in that mid-price range at receiver. Kenny Lawler and Gabe Marks are good options if you happen to like Jared Goff or Luke Falk. I would like Thomas Duarte more than both Lawler or Marks, but Duarte was unable to practice this week with the flu, and he’s questionable for the game.
If you’re looking for a cheap option outside of that Hawaii game, consider Oregon State’s Jordan Villamin. Villamin did little last week against UCLA, but the Bruins allow the fewest passing yards per game in the Pac-12. This week he’ll face Oregon who allows the most passing yards per game in the conference, allowing over 300 yards per game. They also allow 3.22 passing touchdowns per game. Victor Bolden is also an option for the Beavers, but Villamin has the upside, leading the team in yards (486) and touchdowns (4).
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