College Football DFS: Week 7 – Night Slate
Below are positional rankings for the 12-game night slate of DraftKings contests on Saturday with some commentary along the way. Keep in mind that salary has a huge impact on a player’s ranking.
Matchup Chart
Below is a matchup chart I create each week that includes information from Vegas and information on each team’s opponent in terms of their defensive strength. The defensive numbers are rankings from Football Outsiders’ S&P+ ratings. All the info is color coded as follows from most favorable to the offense to least favorable: purple-blue-green-yellow-orange-red-burgundy.
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Quarterback
- Trevone Boykin – $9,700 – TCU
- Sefo Liufau – $5,800 – Colorado
- Anu Solomon – $6,900 – Arizona
- P.J. Walker – $5,400 – Temple
Similar to Patrick Mahomes in the early slate, I’m not quite sure how you don’t roster Boykin in cash games for the night slate. TCU has the highest team total of the slate, and their team total is more than 10 points higher than the second highest team total. Boykin has been remarkably consistent the last four games posting at least 38 fantasy points in each game and averaging 42.17 points per game over that stretch. There are few other stud quarterbacks available in this slate, so Boykin is likely to be highly owned, thus potentially making him a fade in GPPs. But in cash? I just don’t know how you pass on him.
After Boykin, you almost have to take some risks. I’m inclined to look to the quarterbacks in the game with the second highest total of the slate after the TCU game, Arizona at Colorado. Both teams rate outside the top 100 in total defense and in passing defense, so all the variables are good for the quarterbacks in that one. It’s just not clear that the quarterbacks themselves are good.
Of the two, I probably prefer Colorado’s quarterback, Sefo Liufau, because he has less competition from his team’s ground game and the Buffaloes are the underdog in the contest. Liufau has hit 20 fantasy points in one of six games this season, but has some close two other times with 18-point performances. Anything over about 16 points would mean he hits value, so he can certainly get there in this matchup and even has a bit of value potential.
On the other side, Arizona’s Anu Solomon has been very hit-or-miss this season with performances of 28 and 35 points as well as two 10-point performances, which, unfortunately, came in his last two games. That’s obviously scary, but the matchup couldn’t be a lot better, and, with his upside, he has value potential at this price point.
Finally, Temple has a very nice matchup against UCF. UCF rates 92nd in total defense, which is a big part of why Temple has the fifth highest team total of the slate. I keep trying to talk myself into P.J. Walker at this price point in this matchup, but it’s hard to do because he has failed to reach 17 fantasy points in a single game this season. With Liufau providing similar salary relief, I don’t think I’ll be able to stomach Walker.
Running Back
- Jahad Thomas – $8,500 – Temple
- Dwayne Washington – $3,500 – Washington
- Myles Gaskin – $5,300 – Washington
- Sony Michel – $7,200 – Georgia
- Keith Marshall – $4,000 – Georgia
- Donnel Pumphrey – $8,500 – San Diego State
Another reason I can’t talk myself into Walker at QB is the fact that Temple is a three-touchdown favorite against UCF. Game flow is unlikely to work in Walker’s favor, but it should work just fine for their running back, Jahad Thomas. Thomas has been very consistent this season posting at least 21.8 fantasy points in all five of his games. And the game in which he scored 21.8 fantasy points was his last outing in which he didn’t start and only got 14 carries as punishment for being late to a team meeting. In his other four outings he has had at least 23 touches in each game and an average of 27.5 touches in those games.
If price were no object, I’d likely have Donnel Pumphrey ranked right behind Thomas. Pumphrey flashed his upside last week with a 39.7-point performance, and he’ll face San Jose State this week who has the 109th rated run defense in the country. But there’s just no way you can afford both Thomas and Pumphrey, and I prefer Thomas.
Next up we have a pair of teams which each have a pair of running backs worth considering. First up, Washington. Dwayne Washington and Myles Gaskin have split touches fairly evenly this season with Gaskin outtouching Washington 63 to 55. Gaskin is the RB1, but Washington is interesting because 19 of his 55 touches have been receptions, which is appealing with the PPR scoring on DraftKings. Gaskin is perhaps the safer play, especially considering he got 23 touches to Washington’s 11 in their last contest, but Washington is the better value play. The Huskies have an above average team total for this slate and a good matchup against Oregon who rates 97th in total defense.
Next up, the Georgia Bulldogs. Nick Chubb’s injury is really a travesty and his absence will make the rest of this season a little less enjoyable. In his absence, Sony Michel and Keith Marshall will have the opportunity to take on a larger role. To date, Michel has 75 touches to Marshall’s 29, and Michel had 25 touches last week after Chubb’s injury compared to just five for Marshall. Michel is clearly the guy you want if you can afford him. But unless you’re passing on Boykin in a GPP, rostering Boykin, Thomas and Michel is probably impossible. Marshall is more of GPP play given his lack of volume, but he’s been effective with the work he’s received averaging 5.5 yards per carry.
Wide Receiver
- KaVontae Turpin – $4,400 – TCU
- Nelson Spruce – $5,800 – Colorado
- Cayleb Jones – $4,300 – Arizona
- Cortez Lewis – $3,300 – Wake Forest
- Johnny Jackson – $3,700 – Arizona
- Will Fuller – $6,300 – Notre Dame
- Robby Anderson – $4,100 – Temple
- Josh Doctson – $8,400 – TCU
If you want to stack a receiver with Boykin, KaVontae Tuprin may be your only legitimate option. Josh Boykin is a monster, but the total cost of Boykin and Dotson is 36.2 percent of your budget. Similar to Patrick Mahomes and Jakeem Grant in the early slate, rostering Boykin and Dotson would really force you into finding salary relief basically everywhere else, which makes that stack almost exclusively reserved for GPPs. Tuprin is much more accessible but obviously more of a home run play. Still, his price makes much more sense if you’re trying to build a balanced roster.
Next we have the stacking options for the quarterbacks in the Colorado-Arizona game. Colorado’s Nelson Spruce is nowhere near on pace to match his 106/1198/12 line from last year, but perhaps that means he has a big game coming. If nothing else, he has been very consistent this year with five receptions and at least 63 yards in each of his six games. He’s averaging 6.2 receptions and 73.3 yards per game. That’s a nice floor with plenty of room for upside in this matchup. For Arizona, Cayleb Jones, similar to Spruce, is way off pace to match his nine touchdowns from last year. At 6-foot-3, 215 pounds he certainly has the size to be a weapon in the red zone. This will be Arizona’s best matchup in several weeks, so this could be the week he gets back on track. Or it could be that Johnny Jackson keeps it rolling as he has 176 yards receiving the last two weeks. Jones leads the team in targets by a hair, so he’s who I prefer.
If you’re looking for a top-talent at wide receiver at a not-too-expensive price tag, consider Will Fuller. Fuller is averaging 4.8/95.2/1.2 this season, but he did more of his damage early in the year with Malik Zaire at quarterback. In DeShone Kizer’s three full games, Fuller is averaging just 58 yards per game and has scored two touchdowns. Despite a slightly below average matchup against USC, Vegas still has Notre Dame with the fourth highest team total of the slate, so there should be opportunities for Fuller to score.
For salary relief, consider Wake Forests’s Cortez Lewis. Wake has the fifth lowest team total of the slate, but they’re a big underdog (17.5 points) and have a good matchup against North Carolina who rates 89th in total defense. Lewis only has one touchdown and it came in his first game of the season, but he’s averaging five catchers per game and, more importantly, 9.5 targets per game. That’s a lot of usage for someone so cheap facing a bad defense.
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