College Football DFS: Week 9 – Early Slate
Below are positional rankings for the 15-game early slate of DraftKings contests on Saturday with some commentary along the way. Keep in mind that salary has a huge impact on a player’s ranking.
Matchup Chart
Below is a matchup chart I create each week that includes information from Vegas and information on each team’s opponent in terms of their defensive strength. The defensive numbers are rankings from Football Outsiders’ S&P+ ratings. All the info is color coded as follows from most favorable to the offense to least favorable: purple-blue-green-yellow-orange-red-burgundy.
[cointent_lockedcontent article_labels=”football”]
Quarterback
- Matt Davis – $7,600 – SMU
- Dane Evans – $8,300 – Tulsa
- Patrick Mahomes – $8,100 – Texas Tech
- Baker Mayfield – $8,400 – Oklahoma
- Treon Harris – $5,100 – Florida
Picking a second quarterback for the early slate may be a challenge, but let’s cross that bridge when we come to it a paragraph from now. Your first quarterback should be SMU’s Matt Davis. There’s a bit of risk after a rough outing last week against South Florida in which Davis was pulled in the fourth quarter. But Davis has been named the starter for this week’s game against Tulsa. South Florida isn’t necessarily a defensive juggernaut, but they are rated 51st in total defense per the S&P+ ratings, while this week’s opponent, Tulsa, is rated 108th in total D. In addition to a softer matchup, Davis had been money in the five games prior to the South Florida game, throwing nine touchdowns with no interceptions while also running for seven touchdowns. I’m not scared of last week.
After Davis, things get a little tougher. One option is Davis’ opponent, Tulsa’s Dane Evans. The SMU-Tulsa game has the second highest total of the slate, so you could pair the two quarterbacks and hope it’s the shootout Vegas thinks it could be. The matchup may be even better for Evans than it is for Davis as SMU rates 124th in total defense. The other thing to like about Evans is volume. He has thrown the ball at least 36 times in each of his last five games and is averaging 43 attempts per game in that stretch. And with Zack Langer questionable and possibly limited even if he plays, Tulsa may have no choice but to just air it out. Evans has also thrown for at least 288 yards in each of Tulsa’s seven games, and he’s averaging 364 yards per game. I think his price is a tad high as he may not quite have the same upside as guys like Patrick Mahomes and Baker Mayfield. Evans’ season high is 36.28 DK points. But with his volume in this matchup, he’s got a nice high floor.
As for Mahomes and Mayfield, they each have a big pro and a big con this week. Mayfield and the Sooners have the highest team total of the slate with Vegas projecting them to go over 50 against Kansas. The problem is that they’re a 40-point favorite and certainly won’t have to throw much to win this game. They focused on the ground game last week against Texas Tech, a team who struggles more against the run than against the pass. Kansas is also a team that rates worse in run defense. There’s a very real chance that it’s all Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon in this one.
As for Mahomes, Tech will likely need him to throw quite a bit as they try to keep pace with Oklahoma State. This game has the highest total of the slate at 79, and Oklahoma State is a three-point favorite, so there’s not a ton of blowout potential here. The problem for Mahomes is that the OSU defense rates 33rd in total defense and has been better against the pass than against the run. Because game flow is more in Mahomes’ favor and because he’s $300 cheaper than Mayfield, I like the Red Raider a hair more. But I couldn’t argue too hard against Mayfield.
If you want to go really cheap at QB2, consider Florida’s Treon Harris. Harris took over under center in Florida’s last game at LSU and acquitted himself nicely with 272 yards passing and two touchdowns with no interceptions. Harris saw plenty of work last year and also showed the ability to use his legs to rack up fantasy points. His matchup with Georgia this week is a bit better than the one he had against LSU. Both teams rate in the 30-35 range in total D, but LSU rates sixth against the pass while Georgia rates 80th. He’s certainly not a cash game play, but he has value potential at his price point.
Running Back
- Akrum Wadley – $5,700 – Iowa
- Tra Carson – $4,500 – Texas A&M
- Jeremy McNichols – $7,900 – Boise State
- Joe Mixon – $6,000 – Oklahoma
- Dare Ogunbowale – $5,700 – Wisconsin
- Dalvin Cook – $9,100 – Florida State
Iowa was off last week, but it’s hard not to remember Akrum Woodley’s breakout from two weeks ago. With LeShun Daniels and Jordan Canzeri both injured, Wadley ripped off 204 yards on 26 carries with four touchdowns. What’s more impressive is that he did it against a Northwestern team that rates seventh in total defense. This week the matchup is softer against a Maryland team that rates 60th in total defense. Canzeri will be out again, but Daniels is expected to be active. The good news for Wadley is that he’s listed atop the depth chart and Daniels is listed third.
Both Texas A&M and Boise State have good matchups against South Carolina and UNLV, respectively. South Carolina rates 83rd in total defense and 108th against the run while UNLV ranks 86th in total D and 94th against the run. Jeremy McNichols is probably too pricey to afford if you don’t go cheap at QB with Harris at QB2. But if you do go Harris, try to roster McNichols. Tra Carson is the value option to fit in all your lineups. The Aggies quarterback position has been up for grabs in practice this week, so it would be no surprise to see the Ags use more than one quarterback. Perhaps they’ll lean on the running game a bit more this week. Carson has struggled a bit recently with less than 50 yards in his last two games, but he has 12 receptions in those two games, which really helps set a decent floor with DK’s PPR scoring.
Next up we have Joe Mixon who has 25-plus DK points in each of his last two games. As mentioned above, Oklahoma is a huge favorite in this one against a Kansas team that is terrible against the run. It would be no surprise at all if Mixon and Samaje Perine reprised their dominating performance from last week against Texas Tech. Rounding it out are Dare Ogunbowale and Dalvin Cook. Ogunbowale is only an option if Corey Clement is inactive. As for Cook, he’s got a nice matchup and is an option if you go Harris at QB2. I like him better than McNichols, but the $1,200 difference between the two probably means McNichols is more feasible.
Wide Receiver
- Courtland Sutton – $4,900 – SMU
- Keyarris Garrett – $7,600 – Tulsa
- Josh Atkinson – $6,300 – Tulsa
- Juju Smith-Schuster – $7,300 – USC
- Alex Erickson – $5,200 – Wisconsin
- Christian Kirk – $6,400 – Texas A&M
- DeAngelo Yancey – $3,300 – Purdue
- Justin Hobbs – $4,400 – Tulsa
Because you have to roster Davis, you also have to roster Courtland Sutton. In seven games this season, Sutton has scored seven touchdowns, with at least one touchdown in six of those games. He’s averaging just shy of 80 yards per game, and 80 yards and a score seems like a nice floor projection for Sutton in this matchup. At his price tag, he has plenty of value potential beyond that.
Perhaps the main reason I prefer Evans over Mahomes and Mayfield is that I like Tulsa’s receivers far more than any Texas Tech or Oklahoma receivers. Keyarris Garrett went full on Keevan Lucas last week with 268 yards and three scores. With Lucas out for the season, Garrett really has the chance to see a ton of looks and post huge numbers. Through seven games he is just 34 yards shy of 1,000. Josh Atkinson is a cheaper Tulsa option if you need it. Atkinson hasn’t flashed the upside like Garrett, but Atkinson has at least 99 yards in each of the six games he has played in this season. That kind of floor is always nice. You could even get cheaper with Tulsa receivers as Justin Hobbs has gotten in on the action recently. In Tulsa’s last three games, Hobbs has 11 receptions for 180 yards and a score.
USC’s Juju Smith-Schuster is in the conversation with Garrett as the best receiver available on this slate. Garrett has a few more yards, but Schuster’s 901 yards and eight touchdowns are nothing to scoff at. Schuster has not quite had a monster day like Garrett’s 268-yard performance, but that’s not really a bad thing. Schuster is consistently great with at least 80 yards in each of his seven games and 135 yards or more in four of those seven.
Alex Erickson and Christina Kirk are your mid-price receiver options if you find yourself needing someone in that salary range. Erickson is Wisconsin’s go-to receiver as he has received 28.72 percent of the team’s targets this year, which is the fifth highest percentage of any receiver available on this slate. He is averaging 6.5 receptions and 80 yards per game through eight games. He doesn’t score much so his upside is limited, but he’s a safe enough cash game play at his price. As for Kirk, I worry a bit about how the QB situation is going to affect him, so I’ll probably stay away.
Your salary relief option at the receiver position is Purdue’s DeAngelo Yancey. The Boilermakers will face Nebraska who is a decent matchup for opposing passing offenses as the Cornhuskers rate 57th in total D and 78th against the pass. Yancey is tied with Danny Anthrop for the team lead in targets with 47. Anthrop has turned his 47 targets into 28 catches while Yancey has just 18 catches. But Yancey averages 17.8 yards per catch and has two touchdowns while Anthrop averages just 8.7 yards per catch and has one touchdown. Anthrop has topped out at 12.6 DK points and Yancey has cleared that mark three times and has a season high of 18 DK points.
[/cointent_lockedcontent]
The Author
