Cut ‘Em Loose: Why You Should Show Mauer and Zimmerman the Door
In a world littered with fantasy writers telling you who to pick up, CEL is your resource for who to get rid of. This doesn’t always mean that you should immediately drop each of the players on this list, but rather you should look for a the most beneficial way to rid yourself of their presence. In some cases, now might be the perfect time to squeeze the last bit of trade value out of some of these guys.
For the first edition of this piece, I tried to stick to big-name guys, but if this sort of concept would be more beneficial when applied to fringier types, let me know in the comments or on Twitter. I’m here to help.
Let’s begin with Joe Mauer. I certainly wouldn’t advocate dropping the Twins catcher in most formats, but if I owned him in a league, I’d absolutely be looking to move him. He still carries the sheen of past success in the minds of some fantasy owners, but he’s never again going to come close to the elite production he delivered in 2009 and 2010. His batting average will always be good, but given recent results, it looks like his ceiling in that category has dropped to about .310. His HR/FB rate has settled in right around 6.5%, making him slightly stronger than Brett Gardner, but not quite as powerful as Austin Jackson. His position in a truly terrible Twins offense will limit his chances to produce and score runs.
The outlook doesn’t look bright, and I haven’t even brought up his injury history yet! If he is somehow able to play a full season, Mauer’s final line will end up looking something like this:
.300 AVG, 5 HR, 5 SB, 65 R, 55 RBI
It’s fine for a catcher, but it’s certainly not elite. Take away the positional considerations, and Joe Mauer is James Loney with better hair. On second thought, maybe that’s not fair to Loney, he did hit double digit home runs last season, something Mauer has done exactly once since 2006.
Quality catching runs at least 10 deep this season. Unless you absolutely can’t live without his batting average, Mauer will bring back more on the trade market than he can realistically contribute to your team.
Unfortunately, the time to trade Ubaldo Jimenez has passed. It’s really incredible to look back and see how far the former Colorado ace has fallen. At first glance, some of the numbers don’t even seem real. After consistently posting swinging strike rates above 9%, Jimenez’ 2012 rate has sunk to 5.9%. He’s lost 1.8mph on his fastball since 2011, and 3.7mph since 2010.
Declines this deep defy explanation. Unless he’s secretly been throwing left-handed, I can’t think of a mechanical problem that could explain this kind of statistical faceplant. One might surmise that Jimenez must be injured, but no matter how tough he may be, it’s impossible to hide any kind of serious injury for this long. Yet, as dumbfounded as I am when trying to decipher the cause of Jimenez’ struggles, I’m even more surprised to see that he’s still owned in 58% of Yahoo leagues. He is an immediate drop in every format. I’d rather eat an empty roster spot. Hell, I’d rather own Kyle Kendrick.
Speaking of the Phillies, let’s address our old, sorry, senior friend Jimmy Rollins. Shortstop is perennially wafer-thin, but even so, there are at least 12 shortstops better than Rollins right now.
Rollins always had his faults, but in the past, he could rely on his powerful surroundings to boost his R and RBI totals. Marooned in a suddenly terrible lineup, Rollins’ 2012 fantasy value is entirely tied to his own contributions.
That is a bad, bad thing.
Rollins’ power and plate discipline have evaporated. He’ll be lucky to hit .250 the rest of the way, and a double-digit home run total is probably out of reach. Yeah, it’s nice that he’s already chipped in 10 steals, but if I’m looking for a shortstop with good speed and a crappy batting average, I’d rather take my chances with Dee Gordon.
Mat Latos has none of Rollins’ issues with weak teammates, but his move to a better team has yielded equally disastrous results.
Latos’ relocation away from Petco Park has predictably led to a spike in his home run rate, but the rest of his game has disintegrated as well. Latos hasn’t lost any velocity, but his swinging strike rate has dropped to just 8.3%, the first time it’s been below 10% in his career. He’s allowing more contact than ever before, and only 37% percent of that contact is resulting in ground balls, down from last season’s rate of nearly 43%. Faced with a more hitter-friendly situation, one that requires him to at least match his previous strikeout and groundball tendencies, Latos has regressed in both categories.
Luck has actually been his friend so far, and when his BABIP and strand rate regress toward his career norms (which is bound to happen pitching in front of a Reds defense that UZR ranks as mediocre at best), Latos is going to drop from the ranks of the Top 50 starters. Though there’s no cause for optimism in his peripheral numbers, it seems like there’s plenty of time for him to turn it around. Trade him while you can.
I’d advocate the same approach with the last player on the list, Washington Nationals third baseman Ryan Zimmerman. Touted by some sites as a Top 30 overall player, Zimmerman has struggled to crack the Top 30 at his position this season. Of course, he’s certainly not among the worst third basemen in baseball, but I think that sort of assertion is exactly what trips fantasy players up when trying to correctly calibrate Zimmerman’s value.
Zimmerman is a fantastic real-life player, but a ton of the value is derived from his defense. Offensively, he’s really never been consistently great. He displayed some pop back in 2008 and 2009, but an accumulation of injuries has dropped his ISO to less than half of what it was two years ago. His HR/FB rate is well below his career average, but there’s no guarantee of a bounceback; it’s awful tough for Zimmerman to maintain a strong power stroke when over 50% of his batted balls never leave the turf.
All things considered, it’s not unrealistic to say that Zimmerman may not top last season’s total of 12 home runs. Without power, what elite skill does he contribute? He’s never been a runner, stealing more than five bases in a season just once in his career, and his career .287 batting average is solid, but it’s not winning you a category.
Much like the first name on this list, Zimmerman’s name recognition is greater than the sum of his stats. There’s probably an owner or two in your league that believes he’s still a Top 10 option at his position, and if you’re luck, at least one of those owners is ready to deal.
Written by Gerard Martin, exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Follow Gerard on Twitter @gerardnmartin.
(May 24, 2012 – Source: Hannah Foslien/Getty Images North America)