Below is a breakdown of Sunday’s Week 11 NFL contests on DraftKings along with player rankings. Keep in mind that price has a huge impact on a player’s ranking.

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Quarterback

1. Derek Carr – $6,300 – Oakland Raiders
2. Matthew Stafford – $5,400 – Detroit Lions
3. Tyrod Taylor – $5,200 – Buffalo Bills
4. Carson Palmer – $6,700 – Arizona Cardinals

What’s not to love about Derek Carr this week? He’s on a four-game run where he has posted at least 22 fantasy points per game, and he is averaging 27.15 fantasy points per game in that stretch. He has an excellent chance to keep his streak alive against a Detroit team that ranks 31st in 4for4.com’s schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) against quarterbacks and 28th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA. Vegas likes this game as well giving it the highest over/under of the weekend with a total of 50.

The only thing not to love about Carr is that there are so many things to love about him. Because all the variables are so obviously in his favor, he’s going to be a very popular play on Sunday. There’s a strong correlation between the ownership rates in Thursday night Fanduel contests and weekend ownership percentage, even over on DraftKings. It’s not a perfect correlation, but the Thursday ownership rates have proven to be a good indicator. For looks at the Thursday ownership percentages, you can click here and here. As you can see, Carr was the most highly owned quarterback on Thursday and should be again this weekend. If you’re playing cash games, don’t worry about his popularity. But if you’re playing GPPs, it’s probably best to fade the crowd and go the contrarian route.

My favorite contrarian option is on the other side of that game with Matthew Stafford. Again, that game has the highest over/under of the week, and the Lions are a slight favorite at home. Oakland ranks 27th in aFPA and 20th in pass DVOA, so the matchup is plenty good for Stafford. As for his ownership percentage, he was the fifth or sixth most owned QB on Thursday night, but his ownership rate was still below five percent because most of the QB ownership is centered on three players, Carr, Tom Brady and Cam Newton. So while Stafford isn’t the most contrarian play possible, he’s plenty contrarian enough for tournament usage.

Similar to Stafford in ownership percentage is Carson Palmer as the Arizona quarterback was owned by a little less than five percent of teams on Thursday. But that’s where the similarities between Palmer and Stafford end. Palmer is second in fantasy points per game at the position while Stafford is 21st. But matchup and price can be great equalizers in DFS. You can see there is a $1,300 gap between the two, and Palmer has a much tougher matchup against Cincinnati who ranks second in aFPA and ninth in pass DVOA. But the fact remains that Palmer is a much better player who can overcme a bad matchup. He did just that last week with 26.32 fantasy points against Seattle who ranks seventh in both aFPA and pass DVOA. So if you prefer an actual good player with a bad matchup to a bad player with a good matchup as a contrarian play, Palmer is your man. I prefer Stafford, but I understand the other side of that argument.

If you really want a low-owned quarterback, Tyrod Taylor was only owned in about two percent of Thursday contests. There was a lot of love for Tyrod early in the year, and that love even saw a revival shortly after he returned from injury. But with such a low ownership percentage on Thursday, it would seem the love has faded, and with 15 and 11 fantasy points in two weeks back you sort of understand why. But I’m willing to cut him some slack for the 11 points last week against a tough Jets defense. This week he has a much better matchup against New England who ranks 23rd in aFPA and 10th in pass DVOA. It’s not the greatest matchup, but it’s at least average. And as I’m sure many others have pointed out, Tyrod had his best game of the season in Week 2 against New England with 28.98 fantasy points. And don’t forget that Tyrod ranks second in the league in fantasy points per drop back. With game flow potentially in his favor playing from behind, that could turn out to be an important stat.

Running Back

1. Charcandrick West – $4,500 – Kansas City Chiefs
2. Darren McFadden – $5,000 – Dallas Cowboys
3. Demarco Murray – $6,000 – Philadelphia Eagles
4. Devonta Freeman – $8,400 – Atlanta Falcons
5. Frank Gore – $4,700 – Indianapolis Colts
6. Jonathan Stewart – $4,400 – Carolina Panthers
7. Theo Riddick – $3,300 – Detroit Lions

Let’s start with Charcandrick West and Darren McFadden who strike me as very similar plays with one big caveat: McFadden’s health. He apparently tweaked a groin on Wednesday and was limited in practice on Thursday and Friday. This post was written late Friday evening, so it’s imperative that you monitor McFadden’s status as we work towards noon on Sunday. If he at all seems iffy to you, I’d look elsewhere. But for the sake of discussion, I’ll address him below as if he’s good to go.

West and McFadden have spectacular matchups against San Diego and Miami who rank 32nd and 31st in aFPA against backs in PPR leagues and 32nd and 21st in run DVOA. Both backs are also plenty cheap and thus good value plays. West is cheaper, has the better matchup and isn’t dealing with an injury, so he’s clearly the better play. But like Carr, everyone knows that and West was easily the most owned running back on Thursday. Again, for cash games that’s not much of a concern, but it’s certainly an option to fade him in GPPs. As for McFadden, his ownership percentage will likely rise if we get solid reports that his health is not a concern, or at least not much of one. But the threat of injury should keep him off enough rosters for him to be worth GPP consideration if you’re comfortable using him.

With several of the league’s top backs injured, we’re down to basically Devonta Freeman, Todd Gurley and maybe Adrian Peterson as the only three running backs who seem pretty reliable week-to-week. I’m not totally on board with AD being all the way back just yet and don’t care for his or Gurley’s price this week, so Freeman is where I would go if you’re desperate for reliability. But the problems are that he’s quite pricey and quite popular as he was the second most owned back on Thursday night. I get his cash game appeal, but I just don’t see myself rostering Freeman.

Moving away from the safe cash game plays to the contrarian options, let’s start with Demarco Murray. Demarco was owned at about the same rate as McFadden on Thursday, but he could also see his ownership percentage rising this weekend with Ryan Mathews now inactive for the week. But Murray should avoid being one of the very highest owned backs, so he’s still a tournament option. The matchup against Tampa isn’t great for Murray, but the volume he should see is hard to ignore. Even with Mathews around, Murray had at least 20 touches in each of his last five games and averaged 24.6 touches in that stretch. With Mathews out and with Mark Sanchez taking over for an injured Sam Bradford, you have to imagine Murray will see plenty of work.

Moving down the rate of ownership list, Jonathan Stewart was about the 12th most owned back on Thursday with an ownership percentage around seven percent, which is plenty low enough for tournament consideration. Like Murray, Stewart does not have a great matchup as he’ll face Washington, who is an average matchup at best for backs. But Stewart is also like Murray in that the volume is there. Also in his last five games, Stewart has at least 21 touches in each game. That’s quite a bit of volume for a back that is cheaper than 23 other backs this week. That volume makes Stewart a cash consideration, and his low ownership also makes him a tournament consideration.

In the same price range as Stewart with a better matchup is Frank Gore against the Falcons who rank 29th in aFPA and 16th in run DVOA. Gore has seen his usage spike with 25 and 29 touches the last two weeks. With Andrew Luck still out and a new offensive coordinator in Indy, there could definitely be staying power to Gore’s uptick in touches. With an ownership rate under four percent, Gore might actually be a better play than Stewart. I originally had Stewart ranked higher, which is why he was discussed before Gore, but I’ve changed my mind.

If you’re looking for the ultimate contrarian play at running back, how about Theo Riddick? Last week I ranked Matt Jones as my last RB in the super cheap gamble department, and that went far better than I could have expected. I’m not saying Riddick really has 30 fantasy point upside, but he does have some similarities to Jones’ situation last week. Jones had a good matchup, and Riddick has a good one this week against the Raiders who rank 26th in aFPA and 22nd in run DVOA. They also rank 26th in DVOA against running backs as receivers. My main concern with Jones last week was usage, and it’s also a concern here that Riddick has a season-high of 11 touches. But Riddick does have 45 receptions this season and this could be a shootout suited to a pass-catcher like Riddick.

Wide Receiver

1. Julio Jones – $9,300 – Atlanta Falcons
2. Larry Fitzgerald – $7,200 – Arizona Cardinals
3. Michael Crabtree – $6,000 – Oakland Raiders
4. Danny Amendola – $4,000 – New England Patriots
5. Calvin Johnson – $7,200 – Detroit Lions
6. Mike Evans – $7,300 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
7. Stevie Johnson – $3,900 – San Diego Chargers
8. Golden Tate – $4,600 – Detroit Lions
9. Sammy Watkins – $4,800 – Buffalo Bills

Let’s start by mentioning that of the receivers ranked here, six were among the seven most owned receivers in Thursday contests. Danny Amendola, Julio Jones and Michael Crabtree were the three most owned receivers by a decent margin and thus may be guys to fade in tournaments. But in cash, they all make plenty of sense. Amendola is very cheap and has a good individual matchup according to PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart. Dola has the seventh highest individual advantage score on the chart with a matchup against the aptly named Buffalo slot corner, Nickell Robey. Julio has a nice matchup as well against the Colts who rank 20th in aFPA against receivers in PPR leagues and 21st in pass DVOA. Additionally, he has the 13th highest rated individual matchup per the WR/CB chart. And if you’re going with Carr in cash, pair him with Crab who has the better matchup between he and Amari Cooper against Nevin Lawson as opposed to Darius Slay.

Once you get past those three guys, you start getting to guys who aren’t so heavily owned that you can possibly consider them for tournaments. Mike Evans, Stevie Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald ranked fifth, sixth and seventh in ownership percentage on Thursday and were between 10 and 15 percent owned. We’re definitely not in contrarian territory here, but we’re out of 20-plus-percent owned “chalk” territory.

Stevie is the salary relief option of the three if you need it. He’s a shade under $4K, and he has a good matchup against the Chiefs who rank 31st in aFPA but who do rank 11th in pass DVOA. Among the more expensive guys, Fitz and Evans, it’s hard to say who has the better matchup. Fitz will face the Bengals who rank eighth in aFPA and ninth in DVOA. But they also rank 21st in DVOA against #1 receivers, and Fitz has a slightly better individual matchup rating on the WR/CB chart. Meanwhile, Evans will face Eagles who rank 32nd in aFPA and 31st in DVOA against #1 receivers. But then again, Philly ranks third in pass DVOA and Fitz does have the better individual matchup score. I”m inclined to go with the consistency of Fitzgerald who has 14.7 fantasy points or more in all but one game this season.

The more contrarian options at receiver are stack options with the contrarian quarterbacks ranked above, Stafford and Taylor. For the Lions, both Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate are options, and I wouldn’t be opposed to stacking both with Stafford in a big tournament. Johnson clearly has the upside, but he’s also been fairly consistent lately with at least five receptions and at least 80 yards in each of his last four games. His individual matchup rating is the 19th best this week (out of about 85 receivers). As for Tate, he hasn’t displayed as much consistency, and he certainly hasn’t flashed much upside. But if he’s going to go big, this could be the week as his individual matchup rating is the second best of the week working primarily against D.J. Hayden out of the slot. For the Bills, Sammy Watkins is probably the only viable stack option with Taylor.

Tight End

1. Travis Kelce – $4,700 – Kansas City Chiefs
2. Eric Ebron – $3,500 – Detroit Lions
3. Zach Ertz – $3,100 – Philadelphia Eagles

Starting first with the ownership percentage for each of these three guys, none were owned in more than about seven percent of leagues as most players were gravitating towards the safe but expensive options of Rob Gronkowski and Greg Olsen. But Travis Kelce was the third most owned tight end, so perhaps you’d want to fade him in tournaments. But the other two were certainly lightly enough owned to be good contrarian options. Eric Ebron was owned by about four percent of teams on Thursday, and Ertz’s ownership rate was around one percent.

Kelce has a solid matchup with the Chargers who rank 21st in aFPA against tight ends in PPR leagues and 28th in DVOA against tight ends. Kelce averages about 13 fantasy points per game, and production like that would make him worth his price tag for cash games at his price point. But he has shown little upside that would make him appealing in tournaments. He has cleared 17 fantasy points just once this year, and that was all the way back in Week 1. That’s another reason Kelce makes more sense as a cash game play.

As for Ebron, holy crap am I all in on the Lions. But I can’t help it because I’ve mentioned how good I think this matchup is for Detroit’s offense, and it certainly doesn’t hurt that the Raiders rank 32nd in aFPA against tight ends, though they do rank 15th against tight ends in DVOA. As most tight ends are, Ebron is pretty touchdown dependent, but he does have 50-plus receiving yards in three of seven games this season. The better news is that Oakland has allowed more touchdowns to tight ends than any other team, which is certainly good news for touchdown-dependent tight ends.

If you need to go cheaper than Ebron or want to be as contrarian as possible, Ertz has an average matchup against Tampa who rates 12th in aFPA and 18th in DVOA against tight ends. Ertz has seen a healthy bit of work the last three weeks with at least five receptions in each game and 17 receptions total in that stretch. That’s a nice amount of volume for someone at Ertz’s price point.

Defense

1. Seattle Seahawks – $4,000
2. Philadelphia Eagles – $3,100
3. Dallas Cowboys – $2,400

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