Fantasy Football 2013: Picking on Colin Kaepernick
It seems I’ve picked a popular time to pass judgment on Colin Kaepernick – the San Francisco air attack ranks 30th in completion percentage, 32nd in yardage, 32nd in first-downs generated and 30th in chunk gains of 20+. Hell, fire and brimstone are currently raining down on Kaepernick after his final drive choke in New Orleans. But the truth is his shortcomings have been apparent since his days at Nevada. Legs + strong arm are only but pieces (albeit large ones) to the quarterback puzzle. When it comes to analyzing natural instinct for the position and pocket intelligence/savvy, Kaepernick’s redeeming qualities all but shrivel up. Certain relevant statistics serve to illustrate his deficiencies behind center: [am4show have=’p9;p4;p7;p3;’ guest_error=’Front Office’ user_error=’Front Office’ ]
Accuracy %
Name | Team | Drop-Backs | Attempts | Completions | Drop% | Accuracy% |
Joe Flacco | BAL | 421 | 377 | 221 | 5.3 | 67.1 |
Geno Smith | NYJ | 346 | 295 | 166 | 5.4 | 67.4 |
Eli Manning | NYG | 395 | 364 | 208 | 6.6 | 67.8 |
E.J. Manuel | BUFF | 250 | 217 | 127 | 6.9 | 67.9 |
Colin Kaepernick | SF | 303 | 251 | 141 | 8.0 | 68.2 |
Tom Brady | NE | 411 | 380 | 223 | 8.9 | 69.8 |
Among quarterbacks who take at least 50% of their team’s snaps Kaepernick ranks 30th in completion percentage (56.2%) and 25th in accuracy (68.2%). These figures are in large part a result of forcing the ball into his comfort read, no matter what. It’s difficult to be accurate when your target is not open.
Under Pressure
Name | Team | Drop-Backs | Pressure% | Sack% | Completion% | Accuracy% |
Colin Kaepernick | SF | 106 | 35.0 | 20.8 | 35.4 | 49.1 |
Sam Bradford | STL | 103 | 36.3 | 14.6 | 38.8 | 53.4 |
Geno Smith | NYJ | 146 | 42.2 | 23.3 | 40.6 | 55.6 |
Ryan Tannehill | MIA | 133 | 32.1 | 30.8 | 44.8 | 55.8 |
Tom Brady | NE | 137 | 33.3 | 20.4 | 47.2 | 56.0 |
Andrew Luck | IND | 157 | 39.3 | 14.6 | 44.5 | 57.0 |
Kaepernick has come under heat on 106 of 303 drop-backs, completing 35.4% of pressure passes (29th of 29 qualifying QB’s) with an accuracy rate of 49.1% (also 29th). Not exactly Mr. Cool, Calm and Collected in the pocket; quick to scramble and lacking awareness. His less than traditional mechanics and upright stance become spotlighted in the face of a pass rush.
Efficiency sans Play-Action
Name | Team | %PA | Completion % Diff | Drop-Backs | Completion% | NFL QBR |
Colin Kaepernick | SF | 27.7 | +7.3 | 219 | 54.1 | 72.3 |
Terrelle Pryor | OAK | 31.5 | +10.4 | 191 | 55.8 | 60.5 |
Alex Smith | KC | 22.4 | +1.6 | 329 | 57.7 | 77.5 |
Matt Stafford | DET | 21.5 | +6.1 | 344 | 57.9 | 90.7 |
Geno Smith | NYJ | 21.7 | -8.0 | 271 | 58.0 | 69.3 |
Eli Manning | NYG | 14.9 | -6.3 | 336 | 58.1% | 72.4 |
Nearly 28% of the 49ers passes come off the play-action game, where Kaepernick is completing 61% (20th) of his throws with an NFL QB Rating of 106.4 (10th). It’s on the definitive throwing downs that he’s struggled mightily. On 181 non-PA attempts, Kaepernick is hitting 54% of his passes (29th) with an NFL QB Rating of 72.3 (25th). Reading defenses is not his forte. The play-action, mostly notably alongside an effective run game, draws in creeping linebackers and clears out the middle of the field. This is critical for Kaepernick who needs to see his receiver come free, rather than anticipating the route. Late throws and stare downs are his modus operandi.
Time in Pocket
Name | Team | Drop-Backs | % 2.6+ | Completion% | Sacks | NFL QBR |
Chad Henne | JAX | 110 | 36.1 | 54.0 | 20 | 59.8 |
E.J. Manuel | BUFF | 117 | 47.2 | 50.6 | 16 | 63.1 |
Colin Kaepernick | SF | 172 | 56.8 | 45.0 | 22 | 63.2 |
Ryan Tannehill | MIA | 143 | 34.7 | 49.5 | 37 | 65.5 |
Geno Smith | NYJ | 217 | 62.9 | 52.7 | 33 | 65.9 |
Terrelle Pryor | OAK | 178 | 64.0 | 52.8 | 28 | 66.6 |
When Kaepernick hangs onto the ball for 2.6 seconds or more, trouble ensues. He’s connecting on 45% of his passes in such situations (28th, ahead of only Tom Brady) with a QBR of 63.2 (27th). Scanning the field is not a part of his vocabulary. If his primary receiver is not available, he’ll either scramble to buy time for a simple (no read required) throw, scramble to run, or get sacked (22 times).
I wrote a similarly negative toned article with Cam Newton as my case study back on October 10th. Since that time, the Panthers are 6-0 and Newton has posted ten touchdowns against three interceptions. So, you see Kaepernick owners… I’ve written this article to set y’all up for the playoff run. Let the Kaep resurgence commence!
*All data & Premium Stats courtesy of ProFootballFocus.com*
Follow Adam on twitter @AdamGaneles for NFL analytics and breakdowns [/am4show]
2 Comments
I hope you are right about your negative article curse! Thankfully I picked up Foles… Kaepernick is going to have to prove some consistency before I trust him in the playoffs. I just hope Chip Kelly doesn’t ruin everything and hand the offense back over to Vick!
Good article. Thanks for the insight!
My pleasure, Bennett.
May the FF cards fall in your favor…