Fantasy Football MarketWatch 2011 Week 4: Penny Stocks Set To Soar or Fizzle?
Anyway, virtually unknown football players effectively turn into penny stocks when they have an out-of-nowhere big week. A lot of them are really just inflated penny stocks whose increase in value is a mirage, but every once in awhile one of them will be legit. Guys like
Steve Johnson, BenJarvis Green-Ellis, and Ryan Fitzpatrick all come to mind as guys who backed up their solid performances in week 3 of 2010.[1]Let’s take a look at six guys who were all owned in 1% or less of leagues
[2] prior to their big games this weekend. Which penny players are worth adding, and how much of your FAAB budget (or what waiver claim) should you use to get them?Torrey Smith (Baltimore Ravens – 5 receptions, 152 yards, 3 TD)
You couldn’t draw up a better example of a penny player. Virtually unheard of and unowned, Smith’s first three catches of his career were of the touchdown variety, and he posted a monster 150+ yards in his debut. Assuming the hamstring injury he suffered in the 4th quarter on Sunday is nothing serious, the rookie should maintain his increased role in the offense whether Lee Evans returns or not.
But is there a role for Smith in your lineup? Yes and no. If you’re someone who is down
Kenny Britt or Marques Colston (or both) and you don’t have a solid replacement, you may have to take a shot on Smith. Don’t sit on that #1 waiver claim. And feel free to spend upwards of 30% of your FAAB budget. If you properly drafted depth and have a bench you’re comfortable with, don’t feel obligated to do what is necessary to get Smith. Hold on to a top two or three waiver claim, and don’t spend more than 10% of your FAAB budget.Victor Cruz (New York Giants – 3 receptions, 110 yards, 2 TD)
In a way, Cruz is a lot like Smith. Both put up big numbers in their first game as their team’s second wide out, but Smith is a rookie and Cruz failed to record a catch in his 2010 rookie season (he only dressed for three games). Moreover, Cruz plays on a team with two other receivers that are clearly ahead of him on the depth chart when healthy while Anquan Boldin is the only receiver clearly ahead of Smith in Baltimore.
Odds are this will be Cruz’s best week of the season, so don’t waste too much of that FAAB budget on him unless
Hakeem Nicks or Mario Manningham are going to miss significant time. For now, only add Cruz if you’re desperate for help at receiver and can’t get Smith.Brandon Gibson (St. Louis Rams – 5 receptions, 55 yards, 1 TD)
One could make the argument that the presence of Danario Alexander and Mike Sims-Walker is bad for Gibson’s fantasy value because they take away targets. But one could also argue that the fact that such “quality” receivers like Alexander and Sims-Walker are Gibson’s main competition for targets is a good thing. There is clearly no number one wide out in St. Louis yet, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see one guy develop as the preferred target.
There are no guarantees that Gibson will be that guy. Hell, there’s really no way to make a rational decision about whether Gibson or Alexander is more likely to turn into the lead receiver. But both have a better path to targets than someone like Cruz, so I’d rather have either St. Louis receiver than Cruz.
Stevan Ridley (New England Patriots – 7 carries, 44 yards)
It hasn’t been fun owning a Patriots running back since Corey Dillon’s stretch of 12+ TD seasons from 2004-2006, but if you’re looking for help at running back, Ridley is a guy worth keeping an eye on. The rookie from LSU was easily New England’s most effective rusher on Sunday as Green-Ellis could only manage 16 yards on nine carries and Danny Woodhead only racked up 21 yards on six carries.
It’s an incredibly small sample size with which to predict future success, and Bill Belichick’s disposition towards his back field is more volatile than Greece’s economy and the Gaza Strip combined. But the possibly talented Mr. Ridley is someone to monitor. If you’re in a deeper league and can spare the bench spot, it might be worth stashing Ridley’s upside for the time being.
Dane Sanzenbacher (Chicago Bears – 5 receptions, 27 yards, 1 TD)
Generally speaking, slot receivers aren’t too valuable for fantasy purposes unless they went to college at Texas Tech (see: Wes Welker and Danny Amendola). Slot receivers tend to be possession receivers. That means they don’t consistently rack up yardage and rely too heavily on scoring touchdowns to provide week-to-week fantasy value.
For those in standard leagues, even deeper ones, Sanzenbacher isn’t worth anything. But for those in PPR formats deeper than ten teams, there might be some value here. After
Johnny Knox and Matt Forte, Sanzenbacher was the third most targeted Bear on Sunday. If J-Cutty keeps looking his way, D-Sanzy could be a borderline flex play in deeper PPR leagues during the bye weeks.Andre Caldwell (Cincinnati Bengals – 6 receptions, 53 yards)
AJ Green is the Bengals receiver you want to own, but Caldwell is a very intriguing PPR option. Caldwell received 12 targets last week compared to only five for Green and four for Jerome Simpson. It seems reasonable that rookie quarterback Andy Dalton might use his slot receiver, Caldwell, as his safety valve. If that holds true, Caldwell will have value in deeper PPR formats.
Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student in Dallas who wouldn’t advise that you pay a penny for his thoughts. You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter
@therealTAL.(September 24, 2011 – Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images North America)
[1] The most successful penny stock of the last decade was a company called Medifast Inc. On 12/31/99 their stock traded for 19 cents. As of 12/31/09 their stock sold for $30.58. That’s an increase of over 16,000%.
[2] Ten team leagues on ESPN.com.