Week three of the NFL season is upon us.  Last week I mentioned to not take everything we learned in week one too seriously, and boy was I spot on.  Week two proved that week one isn’t the tell-all story us fantasy players would like to believe.  Things begin to become clearer in week three, but I don’t expect full clarity until week five or six.  Let’s see how teams react to bye weeks, and injuries and what not.

I am going to start dividing my quarterback’s in totiers.  All tiers will be based on matchups, pricing, and volatility.  For instance ,this week Peyton Manning is facing the Seattle Seahawks in Seattle. Usually Peyton would be a top tier QB, but given the circumstances he won’t be mentioned in any tiers this week.

Tier One – Elite   

Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts, $9,200 – Luck is top dog once again.  Readers might think I have a man crush on him (they might be right), but he faces off against the Jacksonville Jaguars – a team that is known to give up a lot of points, even though their head coach is a supposed defensive genius.  That being said, Luck should take full advantage of the Jaguars defense with all the weapons he has on offense.

Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints, $8,900 – To be honest, I am not sure what is wrong with the Saints. I actually picked them to win the Super Bowl – but as I mentioned last week it’s too earlier to overreact.  This will be the Saints first home game this season, and after their 0-2 start, I expect no mercy from Brees and the Saints against a Vikings.  The Vikings have been dealing with the whole Adrian Peterson fiasco this week, and I am not entirely sure their focus is on football.  I expect a high scoring one-sided game here. Brees should return to elite fantasy numbers after this matchup.

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers, $9,200 – The highest total of the week is between the Lions/Packers – currently sitting at 52.  Rodgers bounced back nicely after week one’s matchup against the Seahawks and a first possession fumble against the Jets in week two.  The Lions defensive line is strong, but their secondary is weak, with injuries to key players this leaves them exposed.  Rodgers has shown what he can do to a weak secondary last week, and I would not be shocked if he had another monster week.  Note – I didn’t want to spend too much time writing about this game, but Matthew Stafford is also a top tier option at $8,800.

Tier Two – Cap Relief 

Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears, $8,100 – I am having a really hard time not leaning towards Cutler.  He had a great week two against the 49ers on the road, and this week has a dream matchup against the Jets secondary.  After seeing the havoc Rodgers created last week with Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, I can easily see Cutler doing the same with Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery this week.  This is a very comparable offense to the Packers, and I could see Cutler dropping 25+ DK points this week.

Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins, $7,400 – There is a lot to like about Cousins this week.  First off he faces off against a poor defense in the Eagles, second off he has shown great chemistry with Pierre Garcon, and last he’s priced perfectly at $7,400.  Now would I recommend using Cousins in a cash game? Probably not, there is still some risk using him especially in a new system that he might not be used to yet.  With that being said he makes an interesting tournament play.  The Eagles have shown weakness in their pass coverage in the first two weeks, and if everything goes Cousins way he makes a nice contrarian play.

Tier 3 – Value   

Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks, $6,800 – One thing I have noticed about the Seahawks is they are a different team at home.  It’s funny because one aspect I like to look at when I make plays in MLB is home/road splits, and this can be applied to Seahawks players.  Wilson is extremely cheap considering the Broncos have given up the second most points to QB thus far this season – yes I realize this is a miniscule sample size.  If you are looking for a QB with a high floor for your cash games, that can provide cap relief – Wilson is your man.

Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys, $6,500 – If your family has a history of heart conditions please skip this analysis.  Using Romo is the ultimate risk/reward play.  The Rams corners will have a hard time containing the Cowboys receivers (specifically Dez Bryant), which would correlate with a successful game for Romo.  The only reason I would be a little worried about Romo’s production is that the Cowboys have been running the ball close to 50 percent of the time.