San Francisco 49ers: 2010 Fantasy Football Outlook and Projections
In the past when the 49ers have been good, they have been All-Time good. They have had All-Time greats at QB, WR, and DB. They've had Pro Bowlers at RB, DT and DE. Guess what? This is one of those teams. Maybe no All-Time greats anywhere, but certainly Pro Bowl caliber players up and down this roster. Don’t believe me? Let’s take a closer look.
Alex Smith has been much maligned during his tenure in the Bay Area, and not without cause. He was a number one overall pick over local boy Aaron Rodgers (which is not exactly making the 49ers look good).
After losing the trust of the old coaching staff, and being benched for Shaun Hill by the new regime, Smith finally won back his job through hard work and on the field production.
Last year, playing 11 games he had his first season completing 60 percent of his passes. He also threw for 2,350 yards with 18 TDs and 12 INTs. Those aren’t eye-popping numbers, but played out over 16 games, its 3,408 yards with 26 TDs and 17 INTs. Those numbers maybe a bit high, but in a very mediocre NFC West, Smith can fatten up his stats against the Rams and Seahawks. Even when they were winning the NFC West, the Cardinals defense wasn’t exactly making people think of the ‘85 Bears.
He has three talented targets in Vernon Davis at TE, Michael Crabtree at WR and Frank Gore coming out of the backfield. Let’s not forget Josh Morgan, who is poised to make the third year WR leap. With all these weapons Smith has the potential to be a tasty match-up QB in several weeks.
Projections
Smith was a very good college QB because he was able to accurately hit his weapons and keep the ball away from the defense (seven INTs in two years as a starter). Now with the weapons and the trust of his coaches, Smith seems poised to finally shed the label of “Bust” and become an efficient if unspectacular QB.
If he stays healthy, 3,000 yards, 23 TDs and 12 INTs is well within his reach. Draft him as a backup and you can start him against Seattle twice, Kansas City, St. Louis twice, Tampa Bay and if he’s playing well for you, the Arizona games.
Since 2006 no running back has more yards from scrimmage than Frank Gore. That’s an important fact to think about. Every year at your draft, four or five running backs go off the board, and you’re left to think “Man, do I have to take Frank Gore here?” He’s the most underappreciated running back in the NFL and the reason is tangible.
You know he’s going to miss at least one game. It’s likely to be two, plus parts of two others. He has only had one double-digit TD seasons.
Since 2006, he’s not a lock to get you 100 yards rushing. He’s not even a lock to get you 80 yards rushing. In 14 games last year, Gore had five 100-yard games last year. He also had five games with fewer than 40 yards rushing. Per carries, he had five games with more than 20 carries and three games with single digit carries.
This is the curse of Frank Gore. He’s going to carry your team for two weeks, and he’s going to lose two games for you.
Brian Westbrook was signed recently to be Gore’s backup, which is like building a house out of sticks after the wolf blows down your house of straw.
Westbrook is effectively Frank Gore Version 1.0. He catches the ball well, can kill a defense in space, and is never going to play a 16-game NFL season. He’s never rushed for double digit TDs, and only rushed twice for over 1,000 yards in ‘06 and ‘07.
Anthony Dixon is the man who will benefit the most from the 49ers injury report. Drafted in the sixth round of the 2010 draft, Dixon is a bruising rusher who likely will get the majority of the goal line and short yardage carries.
Projections
It’s hard to state how the 49ers running backs will do with the delicate nature of their starting two runners. We do know Mike Singletary is committed to establishing the run, and behind a very good offensive line, the numbers could be impressive.
I think if Frank Gore plays 15 games this year (with a better passing attack to take the pressure off of him) gets 1200 yards on the ground and maybe another 400 through the air.
I still don’t think he will be punching it in the end zone unless he breaks ones from more than 15 yards. I expect eight rushing TDs and three more through the air.
Brian Westbrook fans, have less to be excited about. I expect 300 rushing yards with a TD or two. Through the air he probably won’t get more than 150 yards and two TDs max.
The guy I’m excited for is Anthony Dixon, who I feel will take the number two spot from Westbrook at some point during the season, and will be the featured goal line back. I think he is capable of 400 rushing yards and seven TDs, but don’t foresee him being a factor in the passing game.
Michael Crabtree was one of the most talked about draft picks in recent memory when the 49ers grabbed him in the 2009 NFL Draft, but a lengthy hold out had him missing the first five games of the season.
Even with that, Crabtree managed 48 grabs in 11 games for 625 yards and two TDs. Now with a full training camp, and ready to play 16 games, Crabtree could be primed to explode.
Lining up on the other side of him is Josh Morgan, a former sixth round pick, who has really become a reliable possession receiver in just two years. No longer burdened with the necessity to be a number one WR thanks to Crabtree, and arguably not even the second pass catching option with Vernon Davis at TE, Morgan should be able to improve on last years modest numbers.
Ted Ginn Jr. figures to be the number three WR, which is great for him, as it’s finally where he should have been his whole career. After three mostly forgettable years with Miami, where he failed to live up to expectations (not entirely his fault as he shouldn’t have been picked where he was), he looks to be the home run threat that the 49ers have lacked since Terrell Owens left town. That being said, Ginn has some of the worst hands in the NFL and won’t be more than the fifth option on most pass plays for the 49ers.
Jason Hill and Dominique Ziegler round out the receiving corps. Neither is expected to have any value this year.
Projections
Crabtree is a guy who has all the expectations in the world on him. He’s going to draw the best covers, and has the talent to beat them all. Expect a very solid season from the second year man, to the tune of 70 catches for 900 yards and seven TDs. He should make a fine number two WR on most fantasy teams.
Josh Morgan will continue to be the possession receiver on a team that doesn’t love to throw the ball. Look for him to get his hands on 50 passes, grab 585 yards and two visits to the end zone. He’s worth a roster spot, but don’t grab him expecting big numbers. They won’t be there.
Ted Ginn Jr. will be a factor on this team in the return game and as a deep threat. If you’re in a league that drafts individual KR/PR then Ginn has significantly more value than if your league doesn’t. In standard leagues, he is a gamble due to a conservative game plan and his bad hands. Still 30 catches for 470 yards and three long TDs sounds about right. Draft him in the deepest of deep leagues only or in leagues where return yards are counted.
Hill and Ziegler have zero fantasy relevance at this time.
Vernon Davis is good. You know it. I know it. The NFL knows it. Last year he finally put it all together to fulfill the promise the former sixth overall pick flashed early in his career. 78 catches, 965 yards, 13 TDs. Three 100 yard games, and most importantly for a TE, he got into the end zone in 10 of 16 games.
Is it fair to expect the same numbers from a guy who until last year, had severely underachieved throughout his career? Probably not, but you’re going to anyway, and I think you’re going to be surprised by the output. He’s the number one red zone receiving option for the Niners, and is also able to break things open with his agility and speed.
Projections
Davis will be one of the top TEs off the board, probably right after Gates and Clark. He is in their class. Look for 80 catches, 900 yards and 12 TDs. Anything less will be a severe letdown.
Last year, the Niners had one of the top defenses in the league, and did so in a fairly quiet fashion. Part of it is their schedule, as they were able to beat up on the Rams, Seahawks, Lions, Jags and Bears.
But guess what? This year they get to beat up on the Rams, Seahawks, Derek Anderson led Cardinals, Bucs, Raiders, and Chiefs.
Patrick Willis is one of the best ILB in the game and Takeo Spikes balances nicely in the run game.
Nate Clements and Shawntae Spencer anchor a good pass defense, while Michael Lewis and Dashon Goldson are tackling machines in the defensive backfield. Jason Smith is slowing down at the DE spot, but can still get to the QB.
Projections
Expect the Niners to be a good defense to grab. They have Ginn who gives them electrifying special teams play, a favorable schedule against some bad offenses, and an elite leader in Willis. There is nothing to stop them from being a top five defense. Don’t reach for them (or any defense), but target them, maybe right after a kicker run starts.
Written by Rick Marsh exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com.
“Everyone looks up to you. They listen to you. If you tell them to fight, they’ll fight. But they need to be inspired. And let’s face it “Superman”… the last time you really inspired anyone — was when you were dead.” – Batman
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Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Advice, Fantasy Football Projections, 2010, NFL, San Francisco 49ers, Niners, Defense, Vernon Davis, Alex Smith, Frank Gore, Michael Crabtree, Anthony Dixon, Patrick Willis, Josh Morgan
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