The Fantasy Fix Roundtable: Prospecting For 2011 Fantasy Baseball Part I – Batters
As the conclusion of the 2010 Major League Baseball regular season approaches, identify one batter that you are keeping close tabs on, in anticipation of the 2011 season. Briefly describe their 2010, why you are keeping tabs, and what you expect from them in the 2011 season.
Two seasons ago Casilla looked like a budding star at the second base position. He was a switch-hitter with speed, surprising extra base pop and a master manipulator of the strike zone. Not an easy commodity to find. He finished 2008 with a .281 BA, seven HR and 50 RBI before a thumb injury ended his season in July. Attitude concerns buried him deep in the doghouse in 2009, and his performance on the field took a nose- dive. He barely scraped above the Mendoza Line at .202.
Most organizations would have cut ties with a troubled 26-year old, but the Twins never gave up on his potential (even when he was out of options). Injuries in the middle infield presented him with another opportunity to showcase his skills, and he ran with it. In 20 starts between July 24th and August 24th he posted very useful stats: .297 (22-74), 13 runs, 11 RBI, six doubles, 2 triples and four stolen bases. He has yet to flash the 50 SB potential he displayed in the minors, but the wheels are there.
With Orlando Hudson signed to a one year deal, Casilla could be the Twins starting second baseman and number two hitter in 2011. Likely to be available at a bargain basement price, this risk/reward proposition is quite an attractive one.
Adam Ganeles is a senior writer for TheFantasyFix.com. Additionally, Adam contributes to the famed NBADraft.net.Follow Adam on Twitter @AdamGaneles
Coming into the year, Sandoval was going off the board as a top-30 option in many drafts. At this point, he isn’t even a top-30 infield option in the National League. At the same time, I think his down season this year leaves him as a player who will make a great bargain next season. After all, Pablo still owns a 3-year average of about .310-20-85-80 with a .850 OPS per 162 games played, and those numbers will play in any league.
So why the struggles this season? His walk rate is slightly down, as is his K-rate, and the resulting 0.59 K/BB mark is virtually identical to his 0.63 mark from last season. Pablo also is sporting a 1.20 GB/FB mark that is right in line with his 1.25 career rate, so the type of ball he has hit hasn’t changed much at all. The real issue this season has been an erosion of his line drive rate which has led to a .050 point drop in his BABIP mark. A little bit better luck next season, and a few more line drives, should allow him to once again hit over .300.
The biggest issue for the Kung Fu Panda though might be his willingness to take care of his body. Only 24 years old, Sandoval reminds me of a 34 year old Mo Vaughn – and that's not a fattering, I mean flattering, comparison. If Pablo dedicates himself to an offseason regimen to get his body in shape, he'll be primed to be a solid bargain on draft day in 2011.
Follow Ray on Twitter @BaseballGuys
Domonic Brown is that special someone atop my watch list. I often find myself saying, “Sit on my face” in robotic voices when day dreaming about the Phillies Outfielder. Domonic, which I prefer to pronounce as Demonic, may very well be the main character in a J.P. Alex created video game and anyone who doesn’t want a piece of him in 2011 should be labeled as a Grandma’s Boy.
The power/speed threat was the Phillies No.1 ranked prospect coming into this season and he should slide into an everyday role when Jayson Werth and his beard hit the free agent market this coming off season. Domonic has all the tools to become a superb fantasy option and the Philadelphia lineup/ballpark is a great environment to find big time production. Brown has power, speed and a good eye at the plate. He also has a track record of producing an above average BABIP, so if his strikeout rate is hovering near 30%, he should still be able to produce a respectable Batting Average.
Splitting 93 minor league games between AA and AAA this season, Brown hit 20 HR and stole 17 bases before being promoted to the big leagues. He hit .318 in AA (65 games) and .346 in AAA (28 games). Brown has struggled a bit since his promotion, but he is far too talented to worry about the small sample size. He is getting his feet wet (he only played 28 games in AAA) and the poor numbers (.229 AVG, 2 HR, SB) only helps us get him at a cheaper price in 2011.
Listen to my main man Dante, if you don’t draft the Brown Bomber, you may end up shitting your pants.
0-for-19.
When Oakland A’s prospect Chris Carter tells his grandchildren the story of his major league career, he’ll probably look back and chuckle. But living through the worst possible way it could start isn’t so easy.
After being among the minor league leaders in home runs, Carter was promoted from Class AAA Sacramento to make his big-league debut at age 23 … and in his first six games with the A's, he never collected a single hit. Then Conor Jackson and Travis Buck returned and Carter went back to the minors without so much as a souvenir from his time in The Show.
But that horrible start doesn’t make Carter any less interesting for 2011. He’ll most certainly get another chance with the A’s when rosters are expanded on Wednesday. And there’s a lot to like about the 6-5, 230-pound slugger.
First of all there's the raw power, which is something Oakland needs badly. (The A's are dead last in the majors in home runs.) Carter had 27 homers and 89 RBI when he was called up Aug. 9 — and since he was sent back to Triple-A he's added four more dingers. His manager at Sacramento, Tony DeFrancesco, told ESPN.com earlier this year that Carter has "the most power I have seen from a young player coming up." That's high praise from someone who's spent 16 years as a minor league skipper.
Sure, Carter amassed those gaudy numbers in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, but when you put up an ISO of .271 in any league, people will take notice. In six minor league seasons, Carter’s already hit 149 homers.
In fact, he has been such an intriguing prospect since he was taken out of high school in the 15th round of the 2005 draft that he’s been involved in not one, but two high-profile trades. The White Sox dealt him to Arizona in 2007 for Carlos Quentin. Less than two weeks later, he was a key component in the blockbuster deal the Diamondbacks made with Oakland for Dan Haren.
What makes Carter even more intriguing for 2011 is that he’s become a more versatile player in the field. A first baseman throughout his pro career, Carter was moved to the outfield this season to help facilitate his path to the majors. That transition is still a work in progress, but with 25-year-old Daric Barton establishing himself as the A's everyday first baseman, Carter stands a better chance finding a starting spot in the outfield.
Like most young power hitters, Carter does tend to rack up the strikeouts — 138 of them in 465 minor-league at-bats this season — so that will be his biggest challenge facing major league pitchers. (He did whiff nine times in those 19 at-bats with the A’s.)
To make an impression in 2011, Carter will need to improve his plate discipline. That will be one thing worth watching with the A’s in September and in the Arizona Fall League. If he can improve in that area, his 0-for-19 start in the majors will be a distant memory.
Follow him on Twitter @SGardnerUSAT
In 2009, keeper league owners drafted Matt Wieters hoping he would be the next Joe Mauer, or at the very least, a consistent top three fantasy catcher. Thanks to a .356 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play), Wieters posted a .288 average in his first 96 games of big league action with nine home runs. To be sure, Wieters’ 2009 campaign did not impress quite like Buster Posey has in 2010, but it was a respectable debut that seemed likely to be improved upon.
Unfortunately, Wieters has taken a step back in his sophomore season. His 2010 BABIP is a more reasonable .280, and as a result, his batting average has tumbled all the way down to .244. On the bright side, his home run, runs scored and RBI totals are almost identical to what they were last season, and he is striking out less while walking more.
So, is Wieters an elite fantasy catcher just taking a little longer than expected to adjust to the big leagues, or was he an overrated prospect that is destined to be an average major league player? Only time will tell.
Written by Brett Talley exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Be sure to follow Brett on Twitter @TheRealTal
Beckham burned many a fantasy "expert" this season, including me. His woeful .216 batting average and horrific .581 OPS before the All-star break saw him dropped in all but the deepest of fantasy leagues. The fantasy world expected better of him after his solid major league debut in 2009, during which he put up a respectable .808 OPS with 14 homers and 7 steals in just 103 games. Fantasy owners couldn't help but salivate over a potential .300 hitting, 20/20 middle infielder (with position flexibility at both 2B and 3B).
Hindsight is always 20/20, but we shouldn't have been surprised to see Beckham experience growing pains in 2010. He did play college ball at Georgia, but had only played 59 games in the minor leagues before his major league debut in 2009. Entering 2010, Beckham had played just 162 professional games in total. Every young player not named Albert Pujols, Ryan Braun or Evan Longoria faces adversity in the big leagues at some point, and has to make adjustments as the league adjusts to them.
It may have been a lost season, but all hope is not lost. In July, Beckham hit .354 with 3 home runs and a .949 OPS, and had continued success in August. Beckham has yet to turn 24, and has the pedigree (8th overall draft pick in 2008, set the Georgia school record with 59 career homers). He's still a great keeper option, and next year I expect him to put up at least a .280/20/10 season. Maybe that's all he will ever be (and that ain't bad), but he may yet develop into a .300-hitting, 30 HR, middle of the order bat.
Looking for an odds on favorite for the American League Rookie of the Year in 2011? Look no further than Kansas City's Mike Moustakas.
Finally living up to the potential the Royals saw from him when they took him out of Chatsworth High School with the second overall pick in the 2007 draft, Moustakas has had an all world 2010 season. Combined between Double-A Northwest Arkansas and Triple-A Omaha, the Moose is hitting an eye popping .323 with 38 Doubles, 30 Home Runs, and 107 RBI. Most impressive is that he's struck out just 63 times in in 443 at bats this season.
Having seen Moustakas in person at both Double-A and Triple-A this season, I would label him as one of the top 5 most advanced young hitters in either the Texas or Pacific Coast League this year. While there may be a bit of an adjustment at the big league level, as there is for most young hitters, it would not surprise me at all to see a .280, 25HR, 80RBI season from Moustakas who should break camp as the Royals opening day third baseman in 2011.
The Pirates' Pedro Alvarez has the makings of a star. Sweet-swinging third baseman, college stud, 2nd overall pick in last year's draft, and tons of power. He has shown the ability to hit at every level of the minors, where he hit a combined .284 with 40 home runs and an OPS of .908 in A, AA, and AAA over 192 games (40 homers in a season and a third is pretty darn good), plus 10 more in just over 2 months in the majors.
Pedro does, however, have three knocks against him – 1) he strikes out A LOT (197 K's in those 192 games, plus 87 more in his first 65 major league games); 2) he makes way too many errors (36 in the minors, 10 in two months the majors); 3) he's a Pirate, and the Pirates haven't had a top prospect pan out since Aramis Ramirez…and that was many years and a couple shoulder surgeries ago.
If you're not in a keeper league, Alvarez isn't worth owning right now but is definitely someone to have on your radar for next year. He could become Ryan Zimmerman…or Alex Gordon. If you're in a keeper league, he should be (and probably already is) owned, but if not – GO GET HIM NOW. He's your classic stud prospect, and needs to at least in the keeper discussion next year.
Jesse Mendelson, Partner and Senior Writer for www,fantasybaseball101.com,has been playing fantasy baseball almost as long as Ron Shandler with a long history of both tremendous successes and spectacular flameouts. You can contact him at [email protected], and be sure to follow Jesse’s writing on www.fantasybaseball101.com and on Twitter @fb101.
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