The Fantasy Fix’s 2011 Fantasy Baseball First Half Awards: The Experts Weigh In
Jose Bautista, 3B/OF, Toronto Blue Jays
Usually, the fantasy MVP and the real-life MVP are the same. In the American League this year, however, I don't think they are at all. The Red Sox' Adrian Gonzalez is undoubtedly the AL MVP. He leads the Major Leagues in batting average, hits, doubles, and RBIs, and is tied for 2nd in OPS. He has kept the Sox afloat through myriad injuries to its rotation (Lackey, Beckett, Buchholz, Lester, and Matsuzaka have all missed time) and offense (Crawford has been out for a month, Youkilis has been banged up, and Scutaro and Lowrie have been a revolving door at shortstop), yet entered the All Star break a game up on the Yankees for first place in the AL East. A-Gon has been the constant, and deserves the MVP.
HOWEVER, Adrian Gonzalez was a first round fantasy pick. He is expected to perform this way, and his owners have been rewarded for using a high pick on him. Therefore, the first half fantasy MVP goes to Jose Bautista of the Blue Jays. Joey Bats was not a first round pick, and was probably the cheapest keeper imaginable in keeper leagues (since he wasn't worth much at the beginning of last year). But he leads the majors in home runs, walks, on base percentage and slugging percentage (by a ridiculous 99 points), and is 2nd in runs, and 3rd in average. For a first round pick, he'd be well worth it. But for a lower round guy – even a 4th rounder – he's an absolute steal.
Written exclusively by Jesse Mendelson for www.thefantasyfix.com. Find and friend Jesse on Facebook.
(July 10, 2011 – Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images North America)
Justin Verlander, SP, Detroit TIgers
The AL CY Young is arguably the closest race. A case could be made for CC Sabathia, but good pitching is more than just the total number of wins, as was evident by Felix Hernandez winning the award last season with only 13 wins.
James Shields is a contender for the CY Young with a league leading seven complete games; three of which were shutouts. The Rays’ starter does not have as many quality starts and has a slightly higher ERA than other contenders though.
Jered Weaver, who owns the league low 1.86 ERA, has put together a CY Young like season, but does not meet the standards of Detroit Tigers ace Justin Verlander.
Verlander leads the AL in strike outs (147), quality starts (19 out of the 20 games), and WHIP (0.87). Unlike Shields and Weaver, Verlander had to pitch more of his early games in colder, non-dome environments that led to shaky starts early in the season.
The weather warmed up and so did Verlander as he threw a no-hitter this season and flirted with a second. The 28-year-old has not allowed more than one run in his last seven starts to close out the first half of the season. Verlander edges out the competition to be the 2011 Mid-Season AL CY Young winner.
Michael Pichan
twitter: @FantasyNomad
Host of the Fantasy Baseball with RotoInfo.com podcast
(June 29, 2011 – Photo by Leon Halip/Getty Images North America)
2010 was not a good year for James Shields. He ended the season with a 5.18 ERA while allowing a career high 34 home runs. However, his K/BB numbers actually looked rock solid, which made him a nice sleeper pick on draft day. But even as a sleeper pick, no one could have imagined him putting up the numbers he has so far in 2011.
Shields has made a huge adjustment in command, keeping the ball down in the zone more often and lowering his HR/9 from 1.5 last season to 0.8 this season. He has done that while maintaining almost identical K/9 and BB/9 numbers from a year ago.
2010: 8.3 K/9, 2.3 BB/9
2011: 8.6 K/9, 2.1 BB/9
And talk about an adjustment in luck! Last season Shields fell victim to a .341 BABIP and lower than average 68-percent strand rate. This season, Shields has been helped by a very low .257 BABIP and abnormally high 81-percent strand rate. A second half regression may be forthcoming, but there is little doubt that those who took a chance on Shields on draft day are tremendously surprised and satisfied with his ace-like numbers so far.
Charlie Saponara is the owner/author of Fantasy Baseball 365. He also contributes to Fire Brand of the AL, Project Prospect,ESPN’s Sweet Spot, The Outside Corner and more. Follow on Twitter.
(July 15, 2011 – Photo by J. Meric/Getty Images North America)
Michael Pineda, SP, Seattle Mariners
Pineda gets my vote for the first half American League Rookie of the Year. The 22 year old flame thrower is averaging a strike out per inning, has an ERA just over 3.00 and has eight wins pitching for an offensively challenged team. In 113 innings he has only given up 81 hits and 36 BB's. His stat lines are much more impressive than the much heralded, Drabek's, Britton's and Hellickson's of the world. My only concern is a innings limit and if Seattle falls way out of contention, he will be shut down.
National League Rookie of the Year:
Danny Espinosa, 2b, Washington Nationals
I gave Craig Kimbrel a higher grade in this week's Rookie Report but based on pure overall numbers I am going with Epsinosa as my Rookie of the Year candidate. Espinosa is on pace for a 30 home run , 90 RBI, 20+ SB season. He also leads all rookies in eight different offensive categories. One other plus is that he has played in all 92 games for the Nationals this year.
Written by John Marino of TheFantasyFix.com. You can read John’s “Rookie Report” every Tuesday at The Fix, or follow him on twitter @JMarBing
(July 8, 2011 – Photo by Jeff Gross/Getty Images North America)
Adam Dunn, 1B, Chicago White Sox
The AL bust is the easiest call of the year – Big Donkey Adam Dunn. He was drafted on average in the 3rd round, and has rewarded his owners with a .160 average, a sub-.600 OPS, and a measly 9 homers.
He has a measly 82 total bases, good for 208th in the majors this year, and fewer than Danny Valencia, Yuniesky Betancourt, Lyle Overbay, Jamey Caroll, Mark Ellis (who was DFA'd by the hapless A's offense), Brendan Ryan, and – believe it or not – Ronny Cedeno!
He has 2 hits off left-handed pitchers all year, and he has shown absolutely no signs of coming out of it. For a guy who has hit at least 26 home runs every year since 2002, the depths of his suckiness knows no bounds, it seems….
Written exclusively by Jesse Mendelson for www.thefantasyfix.com. Find and friend Jesse on Facebook.
Lance Berkman, 1B/OF, St. Louis Cardinals
No player was laughed at and called "done," and "finished," more than Lance Berkman this offseason. But at the mid-way point, if Berkman was to just stop playing now, he'd still have had a better season than last year, and close to as good of a season as 2009. With an ADP around 300, odds are Berkman went undrafted in most leagues. But he's been a top-20 player to this point of the season, and has been the best player (even per game!) on a team that features both Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday.
Written by Eric Yeomans of TheFantasyFix.com and StruckOilers.com. You can follow him on Twitter @EricYeomans.
(July 8, 2011 – Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images North America)
Roy Halladay, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
If baseball handed out a midseason Cy Young Award, it is virtually impossible to argue that it should be given to anyone other than Roy Halladay. The Phillies ace (and that’s saying something considering their staff) has lived up to the expectations that come with being the first pitcher drafted in most leagues. He has accumulated the highest WAR total among all MLB pitchers to date and has accumulated a full win more than the next best NL pitcher, teammate Cole Hamels. Not to mention the fact that his FIP currently sits almost four-tenths of a point lower than his ERA. It couldn’t be safer to say that we should expect Halladay to give us more of the same in the second half.
With Halladay being such a definitive answer to the first half NL Cy Young question, it would be more interesting to pick an NL pitcher who has provided fantasy owners with the most value based on his average draft position and his production to date.
Brandon Beachy and Bud Norris are good candidates given their numbers and the fact that they went undrafted in most ten-team mixed leagues. However, Jair Jurrjens was the 70th starter taken according to ESPN’s average draft position, and he is currently the 10th best pitcher according to ESPN’s player rater. That’s essentially the definition of value.Despite his excellent first half (12-3, 1.87 ERA, 1.07 WHIP), Jurrjens likely has little chance of being considered a Cy Young candidate as season’s end due to the probability of regression in the second half. Jurrjens currently has a negative ERA-FIP deferential of 1.23, a K/9 of only 5.29, and a BABIP (.256) and strand rate (84.1%) that are far enough away from the mean that some regression in those categories is presumable. Thanks to a favorable ballpark and above average defense behind him, Jurrjens may not come absolutely crashing back to earth, but it still may be a pretty hard fall.
Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.
(July 7, 2011 – Photo by Drew Hallowell/Getty Images North America)
Lance Berkman, 1B/OF, St. Louis Cardinals
At this point in time last season, Lance Berkman was almost insignificant in most fantasy circles, carrying a .255 average with 12 home runs and 43 RBI. When he became a part-time player, after being traded to the New York Yankees at the 2010 trade deadline, the long time Houston Astro could be found on waiver wires everywhere. Entering the 2011 season, most owners balked at the idea of the 35-year-old Berkman being able to be an every day outfielder again for the St. Louis Cardinals. The lack of production in 2010, plus the increase risk in injury as an outfielder, made him an after thought on draft day for most mixed-league owners – even in deep leagues.
Berkman’s resurgence at the plate this season is almost unexplainable. Hitting in a lineup that features Matt Holliday and Albert Pujols has surely helped him, and out of the three sluggers, no one thought Berkman would be leading the team in batting average (.290), home runs (24), and RBI (63) at the all-star break. He was a difference maker for the Redbirds when Pujols was struggling and Holliday had to miss time at the beginning of the season. “Big Puma” has been a difference maker on most fantasy teams as well, providing top-20 production for a much, much cheaper price.
Written by Nate of BaseballPress.com. You can follow him on Twitter @NateSpringfield
(June 30, 2011 – Photo by J. Meric/Getty Images North America)
Dan Uggla, 2B, Atlanta Braves
There were a lot of candidates for this (dis)honor, with the likes of Albert Pujols and Hanley Ramirez failing to provide top-pick production. But I don't know of an NL player who has been more frustrating to own than Dan Uggla.
He's hit enough bombs to not be a bust there, but one look at his batting average leads you to believe that the only hits he's got were homeruns. Lots of that has been bad luck, with a BABIP almost 100 points less than his career. But with his walk rate down 3% from last year, it looks like he's really starting to press to get out of this funk He's also on pace to finish with 25 less runs and 40 less RBI than last year. Even if he turns it around in the second half, there's no way he makes up those numbers.
Written by Eric Yeomans of TheFantasyFix.com and StruckOilers.com. You can follow him on Twitter @EricYeomans
(July 6, 2011 – Photo by Scott Cunningham/Getty Images North America)
Brandon Belt, 1B/OF, San Francisco Giants
It is difficult to predict impact prospects because a lot is based on opportunity meaning there to be an injury or trade. I tinkered with Julio Teheran or Paul Goldschmidt, but I think Brandon Belt sees time before them and gets more of an opportunity.
Belt went from an unknown in 2010 to a Top 25 prospect coming into the 2011 baseball season. He made the club out of spring training and then proceeded to struggle earning a demotion. Belt overachieved to get there and should have been left to work out of his slump, but at the end of May he got hit on the left wrist and suffered a hairline fracture which sidelined him until now. Belt has put up solid numbers in Triple-A to warrant a strong projection upon his next promotion with a .316 batting average, 5 HR, 23 RBI, and a 33/30 K/BB showing a strong batting eye. He also has three SB which could be an added bonus. Belt’s 28% K rate is offset by his 20% BB rate and his statline of .450/.504/.955 all point to an impact bat in the 2nd half of the season.
Michael Rathburn covers minor league prospects in his weekly column “Farmer’s Market” for RotoExperts Exclusive Edge Package. You can reach him at @RotoExpertMRath and [email protected].
(April 16, 2011 – Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images North America)
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