The Fantasy Spread: Week 12 Over/Under Fantasy Football Projections
Tom Brady (credits below)
It’s never too late in the season to start a new column. So what exactly is The Fantasy Spread? The Fix takes a look at fantasy projections and tries to determine whether ESPN got it right. So enjoy and let’s hear your thoughts…
QB Tom Brady @ PHI- (*316 pass yds, 4 rush yds, 3 td’s)
Projected Points: 22 fantasy pts
When a fantasy owner hears the name Tom Brady, one thinks elite fantasy QB. There is no questioning that, but this projection seems a bit high to me. Yes, Philadelphia is an underperforming team with a sub-par rush defense but they do sport the leagues 12th best D vs. the pass. Brady can explode any given Sunday given the talented receivers and tight ends he has at his disposal and as evidenced by his three 25+ pt. performances. But with only one 20+ pt. fantasy day in his last 7 game, I will take the under on this projection.
RB Kevin Smith vs. GB- (*74 rush yds, 22 rec. yds, 1td)
Projected Points: 15 fantasy pts
Kevin Smith had a coming out party last weekend just weeks after being signed off of his couch by torching the Carolina Panthers for 140 rush yds, 2tds and 4 rec. for 61 yds and another td to reward the fantasy owners who started him to the tune of an astounding 38 fantasy pts. This week his matchup is against the undefeated division rival Packers. The Packers are solid against the run and rank 12th in the league but rank dead last against the pass. Smith took 1st time reps in practice Tuesday and is expected to start Thursdays game. Smith is a hard runner, good blocker, and good pass catcher out of the backfield and I could see him getting a full compliment of snaps with the occasional breather. I expect him to be fully utilized in both the run game and in the passing game in this game which figures to be a shootout. I will take the over.
WR Vincent Jackson vs. Den- (*95 rec. yds, 1td)
Projected Points: 15 fantasy pts
After a 2 pt. performance 2 weeks ago vs. Oakland, Jackson came out last Sunday and burned the Bears secondary which ranks 30th in the league against the pass for 7 catches, 165 rec. yds, and a td, good for 22 fantasy pts. This Sunday he has another juicy matchup against the division rival Broncos, who rank 21st against the pass this season. Jackson is a true hit or miss player as he has 6 games this season of 6 or less fantasy pts (19pts. total in those 6 games) and has 15+ fantasy pts. in the other 4 games (99pts. total in those 4 games). Considering the fact that the Chargers are only 2 games back in their division and are playing a team ahead of them, I believe Rivers will look Jacksons way early and often in this game leading to big numbers. I will take the over.
TE Heath Miller @ KC- (*41 rec. yds, 1 td)
Projected Points: 10 fantasy pts
Glancing over the tight end projections this week, I came across this shocker. Miller is projected officially with the 7th best tight end fantasy pt. projection, tied with such names as Antonio Gates, and Aaron Hernandez and is projected 6 pts higher then Vernon Davis. Granted, KC was just demolished by the Patriots on Monday night, their pass defense is still ranked 14th in the league. Counting on Miller to reach his projection is basically counting on him to score a td. Miller has had some decent yardage games this season, highlighted by an 85 yd performance week 8 vs. the Patriots but he hasnt scored since week 7 and has only tallied 10 fantasy pts in only 2 of his 10 games. Expecting him to score a td this week is a big gamble. I will take the under.
QB Tim Tebow @ SD- (134 pass yds, 43 rush yds, 2tds)
Projected Points: 17 fantasy pts
I’m going to start off by mentioning that in Tebows 6 games this season, he has scored in double digits in every game including 15+ fantasy pts. in 5 of the 6. This week ESPN has predicted that Tebow will score as many pts. as Phillip Rivers and Matt Ryan and more pts. then Ben Roethlisberger, Josh Freeman, and Alex Smith. Yes, Tebow has thrown a td in all but one of his starts and has a couple 2 td games, but he has yet to reach the 200 pass yd mark this season and alot of his value comes from his ability to run. Denver is a run first team and will continue to be. I have to believe that the Chargers will gameplan for Denvers rushing attack (including Tebow) and try to contain him. I believe Tebow will still score in double digits but Im not all in, YET. I’m taking the under here.
QB Tom Brady @ PHI- (*316 pass yds, 4 rush yds, 3 td’s)
Projected Points: 22 fantasy pts
When a fantasy owner hears the name Tom Brady, one thinks elite fantasy QB. There is no questioning that, but this projection seems a bit high to me. Yes, Philadelphia is an underperforming team with a sub-par rush defense but they do sport the leagues 12th best D vs. the pass. Brady can explode any given Sunday given the talented receivers and tight ends he has at his disposal and as evidenced by his three 25+ pt. performances. But with only one 20+ pt. fantasy day in his last 7 game, I will take the under on this projection.
RB Kevin Smith vs. GB- (*74 rush yds, 22 rec. yds, 1td)
Projected Points: 15 fantasy pts
Kevin Smith had a coming out party last weekend just weeks after being signed off of his couch by torching the Carolina Panthers for 140 rush yds, 2tds and 4 rec. for 61 yds and another td to reward the fantasy owners who started him to the tune of an astounding 38 fantasy pts. This week his matchup is against the undefeated division rival Packers. The Packers are solid against the run and rank 12th in the league but rank dead last against the pass. Smith took 1st time reps in practice Tuesday and is expected to start Thursdays game. Smith is a hard runner, good blocker, and good pass catcher out of the backfield and I could see him getting a full compliment of snaps with the occasional breather. I expect him to be fully utilized in both the run game and in the passing game in this game which figures to be a shootout. I will take the over.
WR Vincent Jackson vs. Den- (*95 rec. yds, 1td)
Projected Points: 15 fantasy pts
After a 2 pt. performance 2 weeks ago vs. Oakland, Jackson came out last Sunday and burned the Bears secondary which ranks 30th in the league against the pass for 7 catches, 165 rec. yds, and a td, good for 22 fantasy pts. This Sunday he has another juicy matchup against the division rival Broncos, who rank 21st against the pass this season. Jackson is a true hit or miss player as he has 6 games this season of 6 or less fantasy pts (19pts. total in those 6 games) and has 15+ fantasy pts. in the other 4 games (99pts. total in those 4 games). Considering the fact that the Chargers are only 2 games back in their division and are playing a team ahead of them, I believe Rivers will look Jacksons way early and often in this game leading to big numbers. I will take the over.
TE Heath Miller @ KC- (*41 rec. yds, 1 td)
Projected Points: 10 fantasy pts
Glancing over the tight end projections this week, I came across this shocker. Miller is projected officially with the 7th best tight end fantasy pt. projection, tied with such names as Antonio Gates, and Aaron Hernandez and is projected 6 pts higher then Vernon Davis. Granted, KC was just demolished by the Patriots on Monday night, their pass defense is still ranked 14th in the league. Counting on Miller to reach his projection is basically counting on him to score a td. Miller has had some decent yardage games this season, highlighted by an 85 yd performance week 8 vs. the Patriots but he hasnt scored since week 7 and has only tallied 10 fantasy pts in only 2 of his 10 games. Expecting him to score a td this week is a big gamble. I will take the under.
QB Tim Tebow @ SD- (134 pass yds, 43 rush yds, 2tds)
Projected Points: 17 fantasy pts
I’m going to start off by mentioning that in Tebows 6 games this season, he has scored in double digits in every game including 15+ fantasy pts. in 5 of the 6. This week ESPN has predicted that Tebow will score as many pts. as Phillip Rivers and Matt Ryan and more pts. then Ben Roethlisberger, Josh Freeman, and Alex Smith. Yes, Tebow has thrown a td in all but one of his starts and has a couple 2 td games, but he has yet to reach the 200 pass yd mark this season and alot of his value comes from his ability to run. Denver is a run first team and will continue to be. I have to believe that the Chargers will gameplan for Denvers rushing attack (including Tebow) and try to contain him. I believe Tebow will still score in double digits but Im not all in, YET. I’m taking the under here.
*Projections are those as predicted by ESPN standard scoring leagues
Written by Michael P. exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. You can follow him on Twitter @prospect_101
Follow The Fantasy Fix on Twitter @thefantasyfix
or for Free Fantasy Sports Advice use our Quick Fix to get help with your team!
*Projections are those as predicted by ESPN standard scoring leagues
Written by Michael P. exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. You can follow him on Twitter @prospect_101
Follow The Fantasy Fix on Twitter @thefantasyfix
or for Free Fantasy Sports Advice use our Quick Fix to get help with your team!
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