The Fantasy Spread: Week 14 Over/Under Fantasy Football Projections
Matt Hasselbeck (credits below)
So what exactly is The Fantasy Spread? The Fix takes a look at fantasy projections and tries to determine whether ESPN got it right. So enjoy and let’s hear your thoughts…
QB- Matt Hasselbeck vs. NO (257 pass yds, 2 rush yds, 2tds, 18 Fantasy Pts)
Glancing over the QB projections this week, I see the usual suspects atop the board, Rodgers, Stafford, Brady, Newton, Brees, Hasselbeck.. Wait, Matt Hasselbeck?? Thats right folks, ESPN has Matt Hasselbeck rated as the 6th best QB this week. To me, its hard to believe considering Hasselbecks last 3 games COMBINED (3, 6, 9 fantasy pts respectively) exactly equal his projection of 18 pts this week. Also, in those 3 games, he has thrown for less then 150 yds twice. I believe ESPN is under the assumption that the Titans go down big early causing Hasselbeck to throw most of the game. While that might be true, I dont see much happening there. Its also worth noting, Hasselbeck’s season high in pts is 18, which he has done 3 times. I am taking the under.
RB- Ray Rice vs. IND (101 rush yds, 22 rec yds, 2 tds, 24 fantasy pts)
Coming in this week atop the RB projections list was none other then Ray Rice who is coming off his monster 204 rush yd, 10 rec yds, and 1td game (good for 27 fantasy pts) vs. the Browns last week. Rice also listed with ESPN’s top scoring projection this week with 24 fantasy pts. Going against a weak Colts D that ranks 30th against the run, this is definately a juicy matchup for Rice. Rice has eclipsed the 24pt mark 4 times this year and is destined for a big game. This game could get out of hand quickly, and the Ravens might choose to give Rice some rest if this happens. I believe Rice has a huge day for fantasy owners, but Im not going to say he quite gets 24. Going with the under.. (But not by much)
WR- Wes Welker @ WAS (91 rec. yds, 1 td, 15 fantasy pts)
The Wes Welker of earlier this season has made a comeback the last 2 weeks with back to back 100+yd games and 2 total tds. He’s coming off a 110rec yd effort although he wasnt able to get into the end zone. Welker has gone over the 100+yd mark 7 times this season and is a good bet to make it 8 this week against the Redskins. I expect Brady to find Welker often in this game and get him into the end zone. I’m taking the over.
TE- Benjamin Watson @ PIT (26 rec.yds, 1td, 8 fantasy pts)
Benjamin Watson scoring 8 fantasy pts vs. Pittsburghs D @ Heinz Field? Really? ESPN is basically counting on a TD from Watson this week to fulfill his projection. Yes, Watson had 155 rec. yds and a td in 2 meetings with Pittsburgh last year but I wouldnt expect him to have success this year. Watson hasn’t seen the end zone since week 4 and his highest pt. total since then was in week 8 when he scored 6. Pittsburgh’s pass defense ranks 2nd in the league, and the Browns have given up 30 sacks this year to opponents. Add those to playing in hostile Heinz Field..I’m taking the under.
RB- Shonn Greene vs. KC (88 rush yds, 10rec yds, 1 td, 15 fantasy pts)
Greene is coming off of his best game of the year in which he ran for 88 rush yds while scoring 3 tds (28 fantasy pts). The 88 yds rushing were his 2nd highest of the season behind a 112 yd. effort vs. SD and his 3 tds were more then the 2 he had for the entire season. At first glance I was going to go with the under, but coming off a 3td performance and with the Jets still playing for a playoff birth at home vs. the Chiefs who sport the 25th ranked rush defense, I’m going to go with the over.
QB- Matt Hasselbeck vs. NO (257 pass yds, 2 rush yds, 2tds, 18 Fantasy Pts)
Glancing over the QB projections this week, I see the usual suspects atop the board, Rodgers, Stafford, Brady, Newton, Brees, Hasselbeck.. Wait, Matt Hasselbeck?? Thats right folks, ESPN has Matt Hasselbeck rated as the 6th best QB this week. To me, its hard to believe considering Hasselbecks last 3 games COMBINED (3, 6, 9 fantasy pts respectively) exactly equal his projection of 18 pts this week. Also, in those 3 games, he has thrown for less then 150 yds twice. I believe ESPN is under the assumption that the Titans go down big early causing Hasselbeck to throw most of the game. While that might be true, I dont see much happening there. Its also worth noting, Hasselbeck’s season high in pts is 18, which he has done 3 times. I am taking the under.
RB- Ray Rice vs. IND (101 rush yds, 22 rec yds, 2 tds, 24 fantasy pts)
Coming in this week atop the RB projections list was none other then Ray Rice who is coming off his monster 204 rush yd, 10 rec yds, and 1td game (good for 27 fantasy pts) vs. the Browns last week. Rice also listed with ESPN’s top scoring projection this week with 24 fantasy pts. Going against a weak Colts D that ranks 30th against the run, this is definately a juicy matchup for Rice. Rice has eclipsed the 24pt mark 4 times this year and is destined for a big game. This game could get out of hand quickly, and the Ravens might choose to give Rice some rest if this happens. I believe Rice has a huge day for fantasy owners, but Im not going to say he quite gets 24. Going with the under.. (But not by much)
WR- Wes Welker @ WAS (91 rec. yds, 1 td, 15 fantasy pts)
The Wes Welker of earlier this season has made a comeback the last 2 weeks with back to back 100+yd games and 2 total tds. He’s coming off a 110rec yd effort although he wasnt able to get into the end zone. Welker has gone over the 100+yd mark 7 times this season and is a good bet to make it 8 this week against the Redskins. I expect Brady to find Welker often in this game and get him into the end zone. I’m taking the over.
TE- Benjamin Watson @ PIT (26 rec.yds, 1td, 8 fantasy pts)
Benjamin Watson scoring 8 fantasy pts vs. Pittsburghs D @ Heinz Field? Really? ESPN is basically counting on a TD from Watson this week to fulfill his projection. Yes, Watson had 155 rec. yds and a td in 2 meetings with Pittsburgh last year but I wouldnt expect him to have success this year. Watson hasn’t seen the end zone since week 4 and his highest pt. total since then was in week 8 when he scored 6. Pittsburgh’s pass defense ranks 2nd in the league, and the Browns have given up 30 sacks this year to opponents. Add those to playing in hostile Heinz Field..I’m taking the under.
RB- Shonn Greene vs. KC (88 rush yds, 10rec yds, 1 td, 15 fantasy pts)
Greene is coming off of his best game of the year in which he ran for 88 rush yds while scoring 3 tds (28 fantasy pts). The 88 yds rushing were his 2nd highest of the season behind a 112 yd. effort vs. SD and his 3 tds were more then the 2 he had for the entire season. At first glance I was going to go with the under, but coming off a 3td performance and with the Jets still playing for a playoff birth at home vs. the Chiefs who sport the 25th ranked rush defense, I’m going to go with the over.
*Projections are those as predicted by ESPN standard scoring leagues
Written by Michael P. exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. You can follow him on Twitter @prospect_101
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(December 3, 2011 – Photo by Rick Stewart/Getty Images North America)
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