The Reader’s Fix: Freddie Freeman, slightly above mediocre?
To say Atlanta Braves first basemen Freddie Freeman had a very good rookie campaign (he did finish 2nd in ROY voting) is no lie. He hit 20 home runs, knocked in 76 RBI’s, scored 67 runs and posted a very respectable .282 batting avg. The only problem with those numbers is that they came from a first basemen that played in 157 games last season. He is only 22 years old so many would expect that there is plenty of room for growth, right? Well, let’s take a look at some of his more telling stats.
Last year, Freeman struck out 142 times which led to a poor K% of 22.4% (good enough for 4th highest among qualifying starting 1B). His BABIP was a very high .339 so his .282 BA will probably come down to the .250-.260 range in 2012. The HR’s will still be there as his large frame (he is listed as 6’5” and 220 lbs.) will certainly help him muscle another 20 out, but for leagues that count BA he is hardly worth starting (even in 12 team leagues).
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Let’s compare two players from last year whose ADP this year are very similar. Freeman’s stats are listed above, and my comparison player is Michael Cuddyer. Cuddyer’s ISO was .010% higher which is a larger number than it sounds. The newly acquired Colorado Rockie also slugged 20 home runs and knocked in 70 in the very pitcher friendly Target Field, all in 18 less games than Freeman. Speed is not something you consider when drafting a first basemen but it is worth nothing that Cuddyer did swipe 11 bags last season in just those 139 games he played in. If you compare their BA it speaks volumes about how much of a better hitter Cuddyer is. Freeman’s BABIP of .339 was .027 higher yet Cuddyer edged him out when it came to BA. I feel Cuddyer is a much better fantasy option not only because of last year’s stats but because of his multi-position eligibility. In most leagues, you are able to plug him into your 1B, 2B, and OF slots. Also, he is now playing 50% of his games at the launching pad known as Coors Field which certainly doesn’t hurt.
Now, if you miss out on Cuddyer to someone who has read this article, keep an eye out for Danny Espinosa. In my opinion, Espinosa is a much better option to fill your UTIL spot as opposed to Freeman. He will give you a similar HR total-Espinosa hit one more than Freeman last year- and if your starting 2B gets injured you have a great backup who will also get you some cheap SB’s.
The bottom line is that I can’t justify starting Freeman in a 12 team standard format. I believe he is a good option off the bench in case of injuries and should only be used as a starter in NL only and deeper mixed leagues. As of Freeman’s ADP right now, he is currently being picked ahead of players like Chris Young (ARI), Jesus Montero (SEA), and the extremely underrated Eric Aybar (ANA). I do not believe that Freeman is worth his current ADP of 120. I would rather draft any of the other players mentioned in this article. Other 1B who are going later in the draft than Freeman I would rather have on my team are Paul Goldschmidt, Adam Lind, and Brandon Belt (not too many agree but watch). Also here’s a little FYI, Yu Darvish has an ADP of 119…who would you rather take a chance on?
Written by Jim Cunningham exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com.
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(September 25, 2011 – Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images North America)
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