The Rubber: 2011 Fantasy Baseball Week Four Top 50 Pitcher Rankings

Alan Harrison · April 27, 2011

Here at The Fix we pretty much have everything covered as far as fantasy baseball goes. With a daily article covering the news of the previous day and weekly articles about closers, waiver wire pickups, start-sit advice, rookies, minor leaguers, and this article about pitching, we basically touch on everything. And that is great, that is what a fantasy website is supposed to do.

But for me, the weekly pitching article guy, it means I never get to write about anything hitter-related. So this week, I want to use this intro to briefly talk about hitting by giving a quick shout out to hittrackeronline.com.

These guys break down every home run by telling you (among other things) how far it would have traveled if it had completed its trajectory, which pitcher served up the homer, the speed off the bat, how “lucky” the homer was, and they provide a video link to each round-tripper. Here is the link to the longest homer of the year, a mammoth three-run shot by Justin Upton.

While a lot of the fun of the site is in watching the no-doubters and finding out how far they actually would have traveled, some of this information can be very useful to fantasy owners.

For example, Howie Kendrick’s page reveals that four of his six homers had “just enough” on them to clear the wall, none of them were no-doubters, and the pitchers that served them up were the illustrious grouping of Bruce Chen (twice), Jeff Francis, Brett Cecil, Matt Harrison, and Gavin Floyd. In other words, Howie Kendrick’s page tells you that the home run power he has displayed so far this season is probably not legit.

So check it out. It is a fun website with some useful info.

OK, now back to what it is I actually do…

No Protection Necessary – Guys I’d Like to Play Catch With

Scott Baker (9.6%) – To me, Baker is a poor man’s James Shields. To many of you that may not come across as a glowing endorsement, but, like Shields, Baker is a guy whose 2010 peripheral numbers indicated that he may have pitched better than his conventional numbers would lead you to believe.

For example, Baker’s 2010 WHIP was 1.34, but that inflated number was a result of the ‘H’ and not the ‘W.’ Baker’s control was excellent last year (2.27 BB/9), but a higher-than-normal number of balls in play fell for hits which led to the high WHIP.

I am also a Baker believer because I am a sucker for K’s. BaKer’s career K/9 is just north of 7.00, but it was closer to 8.00 last year and has been well over 8.00 in four starts so far this year.

Baker’s biggest problem has always been the long ball (and he has already given up four in four starts), but if you play the matchups well with him (i.e., against divisional opponents other than the White Sox or when he pitches at home), you might be able to avoid some of the bad outings that go along with pitcher’s prone to giving up the long ball. If you are looking for a spot start on Thursday, Baker is a nice option at home to Tampa Bay.

Brian Duensing (9.1%) – We are staying in the Twin Cities, but Duensing is a very different pitcher than Baker. Duensing is much more of a ground ball pitcher (and thus less susceptible to the long ball) who is not going to rack up the K’s. But the trait Duensing does share in common with Baker is excellent control. As a result, Duensing is not the sexiest option out there, but he is a pretty safe option who can help you out in the WHIP category.

He is also a nice source of wins because of his ability to pitch deep into games. He has pitched at least five innings in each of his last 17 starts, lasted six innings or longer in 15 of those 17 starts, and racked up nine W’s in those 17 starts.

Duensing follows Baker in the rotation with a start at Kansas City on Friday if you are looking for a nice spot start option over the weekend.

No glove, no love – O-VER-RA-TED (clap-clap clap-clap-clap)

Alexi Ogando (81.3%) – While it is nice that Ogando’s BB/9 has dropped from 3.46 in 2010 to 1.78 through four starts in 2011, it seems to have come at the expense of his strikeout totals (8.42 K/9 to 4.97 K/9).

Which would not be the worst thing in the world if he could keep his WHIP around 1.00 and his ERA around 3.00 for the duration of the season. You know, kind of like Carl Pavano inexplicably did for most of last year.

But at some point, Ogando is going to need his seemingly lost ability to strike people out in order to prevent runs from scoring. So far he, or rather the universe, has been preventing runs from scoring simply by good luck. His strand rate is 97.6% and his BABIP is .155. Sooner or later (and I am guessing sooner) those hits are going to start falling in and the runners on base are going to come around and score.

Sell high on Ogando while you can, if you can. Something tells me the return will not be as great after Ogando’s start on Thursday at home against the Blue Jays.

Jair Jurrjens (94.2%) – When he has been good in his career, Jurrjens has been lucky. When everything he does not control has been equal, he has been mediocre. Without luck, Jurrjens is a guy with a 4.00-ish ERA, a bad WHIP, and a 6.00-ish K/9. Really? That is a guy who should be owned in almost all shallow mixed leagues?

He gets Milwaukee at home on Monday, and I bet his hot start to 2011 ends there.

The Top 50

1. Roy Halladay | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned | Last week: 1

Josh Johnson and Jered Weaver continue to climb my rankings, but since I “blurbed” about each of them the last two weeks, I thought I would take this opportunity to remind you that Roy Halladay is really good.

So far in 2011: 2.41 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 9.40 K/9, 6.50 K/BB, 51.5% GB%, 10.5% SwStr%.

Yovani is only this high because of a lack of better options. I have never been a Latos guy, Greinke is still on the DL, and everyone else listed below just does not sound like a top-20 pitcher. And so Gallardo gets one more start before that little thing called “the benefit of the doubt” goes away. That start comes tonight at home with a difficult matchup, the Cincinnati Reds.

That benefit of the doubt that Yovani still has? Gone as far as Mr. Liriano is concerned. For the love of Gard(enhire), Liriano’s BB/9 is the same as his K/9, 6.10! I guess it is too early to give up on Liriano completely, which is why he is still on this list, but this is not the type of start you want to see from a guy who was downright Gard-awful as recently as 2009.

Britton and Beachy are both rookies, but that is about where the commonality ends. Beachy has a big strikeout arm and a proclivity for giving up the home run, while Britton looks to be an extreme ground ball pitcher without a knack for K’s. But as they say, there is more than one way to skin a cat.

Ultimately, I think both rookies end up with an ERA sitting in the upper 3.00’s/lower4.00’s, but have upside that the guys out of the top-50 this week do not have. So add Britton if you are looking for WHIP help, and add Beachy if you are lacking in the K’s department.

Out this week: Colby Lewis, Ryan Dempster, Ervin Santana

All ownership percentages from ESPN.com

Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student in Dallas who can almost taste that first post-finals beer. You can follow him on Twitter @therealTAL

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(October 8, 2010 – Above Photo by Chris McGrath/Getty Images North America)

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The Rubber: 2011 Fantasy Baseball Week Four Top 50 Pitcher Rankings

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