The Rubber: 2011 Fantasy Baseball Weekly Top 50 Pitcher Rankings
No Protection Necessary – Guys I’m Buying
Brandon McCarthy (2.8%) – This guy used to be a pretty well thought of prospect who is only now 27, and maybe McCarthy is finally ready to deliver on his potential. McCarthy’s biggest problem has always been too many fly balls, but his new home park in Oakland may help him solve, or at least mitigate, that problem. In his first start at home last Friday, McCarthy followed up two respectable road starts with 6.2 scoreless innings. He is not going to be a big strikeout guy, but should be a viable spot start option in all formats and a definite add in deeper leagues. His next start is at Seattle on Thursday, and I would recommend you spot start him if you are streaming pitchers.
Kyle Lohse (21.9%) – In his career, Kyle Lohse has been a good pitcher when he has been a healthy pitcher. This year, Lohse has been a good pitcher (2-1, 2.82 ERA, 0.85 WHIP), so, by my logic, he must be a healthy pitcher. And if he is not healthy, it will be no loss for you to cut the guy you picked up off the wire. If you are looking for pitching help, it might not be the worst idea to take a shot on rostering Lohse in 12-team leagues or deeper, and you can certainly use him as a spot starter. His next two starts are both good ones – home to Washington on Thursday and then at Houston.
Fausto Carmona (8.8%) – Carmona has had two good years and two bad years. In the bad years his BB/9 was over 5.00. In the good years BB/9 was around 3.00 or lower. Through four starts this year, Carmona has only allowed seven walks in 24.2 innings. Carmona has always been an excellent groundball pitcher (60% groundball rate for his career), and if he can combine some control with the groundballs he will be a viable option in all formats. It is understandable if you are still a little hesitant, but make sure you snatch him up if the control keeps up. Until then, he has starts at Minnesota and home to Kansas City coming up, so he is also a nice spot start option.
No glove, no love – Not Buying It
Bruce Chen (12.5%) – Since bombing in his first start of the year, Chen has been excellent over his last three starts. But his opponents were Detroit (at Detroit and their pitcher’s park), Seattle, and Cleveland, so let’s not get carried away. And yes, it is probably too early to start talking peripheral numbers, but Chen has probably been a little lucky to this point. At some point he is going to come back to Earth, and it probably starts on Sunday when Chen pitches at Texas.
Charlie Morton (3.6%) – Unlike Chen, Morton’s early season success has come against good competition (@ STL, COL, @ CIN). But like Chen, Morton has probably benefitted from some good luck. Morton does have an awesome 68.7% groundball rate, but he has only six strikeouts in 22 innings so far this year. No thanks.
Kevin Correia (20.7%) – Correia is low strikeout guy with too high of a fly ball rate on a bad team. Enough said.
The Top 50
1. Roy Halladay | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned | Last week: 1
2. Tim Lincecum | San Francisco Giants | 100% owned | Last week: 2
3. Cliff Lee | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned | Last week: 4
4. Felix Hernandez | Seattle Mariners | 100% owned | Last week: 3
5. Josh Johnson | Florida Marlins | 100% owned | Last week: 9
Johnson would have been a top five pitcher for me from the get go if I had not been worried about his health. And with Johnson looking healthy and completely dominant over his first four starts (especially the last two), he is back in the top five where he belongs.
6. Jered Weaver | Los Angeles Angels | 100% owned | Last week: 6
7. Jon Lester | Boston Red Sox | 100% owned | Last week: 5
8. Justin Verlander | Detroit Tigers | 100% owned | Last week: 7
9. CC Sabathia | New York Yankees | 100% owned | Last week: 8
10. Dan Haren | Los Angeles Angels | 100% owned | Last week: 11
11. Clayton Kershaw | Los Angeles Dodgers | 100% owned | Last week: 10
12. Matt Cain | San Francisco Giants | 100% owned | Last week: 12
13. Tommy Hanson | Atlanta Braves | 100% owned | Last week: 14
14. David Price | Tampa Bay Rays | 100% owned | Last week: 17
15. Ubaldo Jimenez | Colorado Rockies | 100% owned | Last week: 15
In his return from the DL, Ubaldo needed an inning to shake off the rust. He allowed six base runners and four runs in the first inning of his start against the Giants on Tuesday night, but he allowed only two more base runners and no more runs in innings two through five. In other words, there is no need for concern.
16. Cole Hamels | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned | Last week: 18
17. Shawn Marcum | Milwaukee Brewers | 100% owned | Last week: 21
18. Yovani Gallardo | Milwaukee Brewers | 100% owned | Last week: 13
19. Francisco Liriano | Minnesota Twins| 100% owned | Last week: 16
20. Roy Oswalt | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned | Last week: 19
21. Mat Latos | San Diego Padres | 100% owned | Last week: 20
22. Chris Carpenter | St. Louis Cardinals | 100% owned | Last week: 23
23. Ted Lilly | Los Angeles Dodgers | 87.4% owned | Last week: 26
24. Hiroki Kuroda | Los Angeles Dodgers | 100% owned | Last week: 24
25. Zack Greinke | Kansas City Royals | 100% owned | Last week: 28
26. Ricky Romero | Toronto Blue Jays | 100% owned | Last week: 25
27. Wandy Rodriguez | Houston Astros | 86.1% owned | Last week: 27
28. Jaime Garcia | St. Louis Cardinals | 100% owned | Last week: 30
29. Dan Hudson | Arizona Diamondbacks | 99.3% owned | Last week: 29
30. Josh Beckett | Boston Red Sox | 100% owned| Last week: 35
31. Tim Hudson | Atlanta Braves | 100% owned | Last week: 22
32. Chad Billingsley | Los Angeles Dodgers | 100% owned | Last week: 32
33. Max Scherzer | Detroit Tigers | 100% owned | Last week: 33
34. John Danks | Chicago White Sox | 100% owned | Last week: 34
35. Gio Gonzalez | Oakland Athletics | 96.3% owned | Last week: 31
36. Matt Garza | Chicago Cubs | 97.6% owned | Last week: 40
37. Trevor Cahill | Oakland Athletics | 100% owned | Last week: 48
38. James Shields | Tampa Bay Rays | 86.6% owned | Last week: 49
Talk about a tale of two pitchers. This preseason, I used peripheral numbers to fuel my hate for Trevor Cahill and to give me a reason to believe in James Shields. As it turns out, the numbers have been right so far about a resurgence for Shields (3.07 ERA and 1.06 WHIP over four starts), but the numbers could not predict that Cahill would take the next step in the strikeout department. It is certainly feasible that a young pitcher like Cahill (23) could develop in that area, but I would be lying if I said I was totally buying it. For now it cannot be ignored, so Cahill has to be a top 40 guy until further notice.
39. Jhoulys Chacin | Colorado Rockies | 100% owned | Last week: 43
40. Brett Anderson | Oakland Athletics | 100% owned | Last week: 47
41. C.J. Wilson | Texas Rangers | 100% owned | Last week: 4
42. Ryan Dempster | Chicago Cubs | 88% owned | Last week: 36
43. Ervin Santana | Los Angeles Angels | 72.4% owned | Last week: 41
44. Jonathan Sanchez | San Francisco Giants | 100% owned | Last week: 39
45. Gavin Floyd | Chicago White Sox | 48.2% owned | Last week: 38
46. Ricky Nolasco | Florida Marlins | 98.5% owned | Last week: 42
47. Colby Lewis | Texas Rangers | 94.6% owned | Last week: 44
48. Jorge de la Rosa | Colorado Rockies | 79.1% owned | Last week: 45
49. Michael Pineda | Seattle Mariners | 59.7% owned | Last week: NR
50. Clay Buchholz | Boston Red Sox | 97.4% owned | Last week: 37
This was my preseason analysis of why Buchholz’s 2011 would not be like Buchholz’s 2010:
(insert standard low BABIP, high strand rate fantasy analysis here) Oh, and the 17 wins in 28 starts Buchholz had in 2010 were also extremely lucky.
So far it looks like I was right.
Out this week: Edwin Jackson
All ownership percentages from ESPN.com
(March 1, 2011 – Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images North America)
Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student in Dallas with only 22 of 30 pages written for a paper due Thursday who decided to write 1,600 words on fantasy baseball instead of working on that paper. You can follow him on Twitter @therealTAL
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