Week 10 Fantasy Football MarketWatch: Can Roy Helu Repeat? Antonio Brown A Must Add?
There really is no such thing as a sleeper anymore, and nothing is a secret. Well, almost nothing. In the blogosphere era, you can still gain an edge with a little extra research, but you have to dig deeper.
Everyone in your league can click on the ‘points against’ tab on the ESPN fantasy page and find out which teams give up the most fantasy points to opposing QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs. But what you won’t find is some sort of strength of schedule number telling you the quality of opposing position players that a team has faced. It may seem like certain teams shut down opposing QBs while others give up fantasy points in bunches. But things are not always as they seem. For example…
Three of the five teams that have allowed the fewest fantasy points on average to opposing QBs are among the group of six teams that has faced a significantly inferior group of opposing quarterbacks (and I’ll leave out the description of how they were determined so I don’t have to use the words "standard deviation" in an article).
The
Cleveland Browns, Cincinnati Bengals, and Houston Texans have allowed the 3rd, 4th, and 5th fewest fantasy points on average to opposing QBs, respectively. However, they have also had the 3th, 4th, and 5th easiest schedules of opposing quarterbacks.Check out the murderer’s row Cincinnati has faced: McCoy, Orton, Smith, Fitzpatrick, Gabbert, Painter, Tavaris, and Hasselbeck. Not one of those guys ranks among the top 12 in passing yards this year.
Cleveland’s lineup is just as bad. Aside from facing Matt Schaub this week and Matt Hasselbeck in week 4, the Browns haven’t faced a quarterback who ranks among the top 20 in passing yards in any of their other six games.
This information doesn’t mean these pass defenses are bad. Cleveland held Schaub to eight points this week, Cincinnati held Fitzpatrick to seven points in week 4, and Houston held Roethlisberger to seven points in week 4 as well. But the only time one of these teams faced a top six fantasy scoring QB, Drew Brees lit up Houston for 26 points.
What this information does mean is that these three passing defenses are no reason to bench an otherwise start-worthy QB.
On the flip side, six teams have faced a significantly superior group of quarterbacks. For the
Miami Dolphins, this means that things aren’t as bad as they seem. And they seem pretty bad considering the Fins allow the second most fantasy points on average to opposing QBs.It also means that the
Minnesota Vikings, Chicago Bears, St. Louis Rams, and Atlanta Falcons are probably in the middle of the pack against QBs as opposed to among the bottom third against them.But the most important discovery to come out of this little experiment is how good the
Jacksonville Jaguars are against QBs. Jacksonville is currently 11th best against the QB despite having the third toughest slate of opposing QBs. Those QBs are:Hasselbeck, Sanchez, Newton, Brees, Dalton, Roethlisberger, Flacco, Schaub.
Every single one of those QBs averages at least 12 fantasy points per game. Brees and Newton are 1-2 in passing yards. Newton leads all QBs in total yardage.
Imagine what they’ll do in their final 8 games. Borderline start-worthy quarterbacks like
Josh Freeman, Matt Hasselbeck, and Matt Ryan all face Jacksonville down the stretch. All three should probably be left on your bench in those weeks. Even top ten guys like Rivers and Schaub may have to be on your bench when they face the Jags.To recap: Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Houston are nothing to be scared of. Miami isn’t quite the choice matchup it seems to be. And you should let Conrad Murray administer anesthesia to you before you start a middling quarterback against the Jaguars.
Next week, we’ll take a look at how teams really fare against opposing running backs.
The Free Market
Quickly, a few guys owned in less than 40% of ESPN leagues who need to be added.
Roy Helu (Washington Redskins, 16% owned) Laurent Robinson (Dallas Cowboys, 2.2% owned)
Helu touched the ball 24 times on Sunday, 22 more times than any other Washington back. Robinson managed to have some success as Dallas’ WR3 but will now serve as their WR2 until Miles Austin returns from injury. They’ll be the hot new pickups this week. Just remember Helu still has crazy Mike Shanahan as his coach, and Robinson’s value is tied to Austin staying off the field.
Though this pair will likely be the most added RB/WR players this week, the most added player should be…
ANTONIO BROWN!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (Pittsburgh Steelers, only 31.1% owned!!!!!!!!!!!!)
Seriously, what are people waiting for? He leads Pittsburgh receivers in targets (by 10), and he’s 7th in the league in targets. He also leads the team in redzone targets and has double digit fantasy points in three straight games. He faces the previously discussed not-so-great-after-all pass defense of Cleveland and Cincinnati a total of four times over his last seven games. What are you waiting for? Grab him NOW!
Montario Hardesty (Cleveland Browns, 33.8% owned)
If someone in your league bailed on Hardesty and you’re thin at RB, he’s probably worth adding. For whatever reason, whether it is injury, Madden Curse or personal differences between Peyton Hillis and the Browns, it’s no guarantee that we see much of Hillis on the field for the remainder of the season. Chris Ogbonnaya clearly sucks (13 for 28 with a lost fumble last week), so Hardesty is probably going to be the guy when he gets healthy.
Steve Breaston (Kansas City Chiefs, 39.1% owned)Early Doucet (Arizona Cardinals, 18.8% owned)
Breaston is averaging 8.6 fantasy points over his last six games while Breaston is averaging 8.2 over his last four. If they can keep that kind of production up, they’ll be top 20 receivers the rest of the way. It’s not likely they’ll continue to produce at quite that level, but it’s certainly within reason that these two are top 30 receivers from here on out.
Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student in Dallas who really misses using double entendres like he did in his weekly baseball article, The Rubber. So how about this for a fantasy football name? Schaub on my Kolb. You can tell him someone else already came up with that and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.
(October 1, 2011 – Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images North America)