Week 10: Two-Start Pitchers, Start ‘Em or Sit’ Em?
Eleven of those 30 are owned in 100% of leagues. Eight more are owned in less than 1% of ten team leagues and are unusable. That leaves just eleven guys that fantasy owners have to make decisions on this week.
Below is a start and sit list for those eleven guys, assuming that you play in a 10 team league with weekly lineup decisions.
Start ‘Em
Max Scherzer (Detroit Tigers, 86% owned); Week 10: @Cubs, home to Rockies
Bud Norris (Houston Astros, 57.9% owned); Week 10: @Giants, @Rangers)
Ivan Nova (New York Yankees, 50.4% owned); Week 10: @Braves, @Nationals
You wouldn’t know it from the 5.09 ERA and 1.47 WHIP, but Nova has pitched pretty well this year. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is an even 3.00 (8.02 K/9, 2.67 BB/9), his SIERA is 3.59, and his groundball rate is a touch better than average at 45.8%. The bad roto stats are really a product of bad luck, not bad pitching. His BABIP is .341 and his HR/FB rate is an unsustainably high 17.3%.
In addition to the fact that Nova isn’t as bad as his numbers make him seem, you have to account for where he’s pitching and who he’s pitching against in week 10. For his career, Nova’s ERA is 68 points lower away from Yankee Stadium. This week he’ll pitch on the road for both starts. Moreover, those starts are in National League ballparks where, as you know, the pitchers hit.
Alex Cobb (Tampa Bay Rays, 1.1% owned); Week 10: home to Mets and Marlins
In over 200 innings spent at AA and AAA, Cobb struck out more than a batter per inning, walked fewer than three per nine innings, and his FIP was under 3.00. The main problem he had in the upper minors was a really high BABIP (roughly .340). But the reason for that could simply be a bad defense behind him in the minors. In about 75 major league innings Cobb has displayed an excellent ability to induce groundballs (55.4% GB%). We don’t have batted ball data for the minor leagues, but if Cobb was inducing a lot of groundballs down in the minors (likely) and his defense was poor (certainly possible), then that would explain the high BABIP. With a Tampa Bay defense that was 1st in defensive efficiency last year and who is currently top ten in that category this year, Cobb’s groundballs should result in a lot of outs and not a high BABIP.
Sit ‘Em
Edwin Jackson (Washington Nationals, 73.6% owned); Week 10: @Blue Jays, home to Yankees
Jackson is off to a very nice start this year. He has a 3.11 ERA and 1.02 WHIP which have, admittedly, been aided by a .244 BABIP, but his SIERA is still 3.62 and his strikeout-to-walk ratio is 3.11. So skills are not the reason you’re sitting EJax this week. You’re sitting him because the matchups are tough. First he has to pitch in an AL ballpark against a Blue Jays team that is 5th in runs scored. And second he has to face the always tough Yankee lineup.
Wei-Yen Chen (Baltimore Orioles, 13.1% owned); Week 10: home to Pirates, @Braves
Garrett Richards (Los Angeles Angels, 10.2% owned); Week 10: @Dodgers, home to D’Backs
Bartolo Colon (Oakland Athletics, 17.2% owned); Week 10: @Rockies, home to Padres
Randall Delgado (Atlanta Braves, 4.4% owned); Week 10: home to Yankees and Orioles
Kyle Kendrick (Philadelphia Phillies, 2% owned); Week 10: @Twins, @Blue Jays
Brad Lincoln (Pittsburgh Pirates, 1.1% owned); Week 10: @Orioles, @Indians
One-Start Stream Special
J.A. Happ (Houston Astros, 2.4% owned); Week 10: @Giants
As always, the decision of whether to start a pitcher is a two step process. First, is the pitcher any good? Second, who is he facing? As far as Happ is concerned, he’s pitched surprisingly well this year. His 4.54 ERA and 1.50 WHIP don’t indicate that, but his SIERA is 3.65, he’s striking out more than a batter per inning, and he’s walking a full batter less per nine innings than he did the last two years.
Perhaps more importantly though is the matter of who he is pitching against this week. Happ, a lefty, will face the Giants who have the second worst wOBA and wRC+ against lefties so far this season. And he’ll face them in San Francisco, the park that has yielded the fewest runs by far this season.
Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a soon-to-be attorney in Dallas who watched 'Drive' while writing this article. It sucked. The movie…..not this article. You can tell him this article sucked as much as Drive and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.
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