Week 11 Fantasy Football MarketWatch: Do The Lions Have A Better Run Defense Than The 49ers?
· Has not allowed a rushing touchdown;
· Gives up the fewest yards per game on the ground;
· Is one of two teams to have given up only one 20+ yard run; and
· Allows the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs by a healthy margin.
So the Niners have the best run defense in football, right?
(channeling my inner Corso)
Not so fast, my friend! Teams that San Fran has faced this year average 105.2 rushing yards per game. That’s the lowest number in the league which means the “best” run defense has also faced the easiest schedule. The teams that have given up the second (Baltimore) and third (Houston) fewest points to running backs have also faced a significantly inferior group of runners.
So, if the Niners aren’t the best run D in the league, which team is?
How about the
Detroit Lions? The Lions have allowed the fifth fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs despite having the fifth toughest schedule. Despite having faced guys like Peterson, Forte, Gore, and Turner, the Lions have only allowed three touchdowns to running backs this season. The Lions will see a lot of running back committees the rest of the way like Carolina, Green Bay, New Orleans, and San Diego. Those backs splitting time should be left on your bench when facing this strong Lions run defense.It’s interesting to note that the
Green Bay Packers have faced the toughest slate of opposing backs but have managed to give up the 12th fewest fantasy points to them. This seems to back up the idea that backs will lose carries when playing Green Bay as their teams throw in excess while playing from behind. As further proof, teams facing Green Bay only attempt about 22 runs per game when facing the Packers. That’s the third lowest mark in the league. Good backs on bad teams will struggle against Green Bay. For example, LeGarrette Blount is a big time stay away this week when Green Bay travels to Tampa.Teams whose runs defenses may not be as bad as they look are Oakland, Tampa Bay, and Kansas City. Those teams have allowed the fourth, fifth, and sixth most fantasy points to opposing RBs but also have faced the fourth, fifth, and sixth toughest RB schedules. On the other hand, teams with run defenses that are just as bad as they look include St. Louis, Carolina, and Indianapolis. Carolina and Indy allow the most fantasy points to RBs and figure to continue to do so.
Maurice Morris could be a sneaky play against the Panthers this week.The Free Market
As always, here are a few players owned in less than 50% of ESPN leagues that might be worth a pickup.
Denarius Moore (Oakland Raiders, 31.5% owned)
Laurent Robinson (Dallas Cowboys, 13% owned)
This pair of receivers will be hot pickups this week as Moore recorded 24 fantasy points and Robinson put up an almost equally excellent 19 in week 9. The problem with both of these guys is that playing time is no guarantee. If and when Miles Austin returns, Robinson’s role will decrease. And God only knows what the Oakland WR depth chart will look like week to week.
Robinson is probably the better add because he should retain some value when Austin comes back, but either of these next two receivers might be better adds.
Early Doucet (Arizona Cardinals, 18.6% owned)
Earl Bennett (Chicago Bears, 10.1% owned)
As was pointed out in this space last week, Doucet has been on a little roll of completely respectable “averageness.” He extended his streak of games with between seven and nine fantasy points to five weeks with eight points against the Eagles this week. Said it before and will say it again, Doucet could be a top 30 WR the rest of the way. John Skelton and all.
Meanwhile, Bennett has amassed 23 fantasy points in the two weeks since he returned from injury and has been the Bears leading receiver in yardage and receptions both weeks.
Carson Palmer (Oakland Raiders, 25.8% owned)
Andy Dalton (Cincinnati Bengals, 24.6% owned)
Are you a Matt Schaub owner? If so, one of these two gingery quarterbacks is likely your best bet. Which one to pick up largely depends on what you need. If you need a QB to help you get into the playoffs, Palmer is your guy as he faces Minnesota, Chicago, and Miami in the final weeks of fantasy football’s regular season. All three of these teams rank among the top ten in most fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs. If you’ve got a playoff spot pretty well in hand, Dalton is your man. He gets St. Louis and Arizona, both of whom also rank among the top ten in most points allowed to quarter backs, in weeks 15 and 16.
Maurice Morris (Detroit Lions, 12.4% owned)
Donald Brown (Indianapolis colts, 11% owned)
Morris was mentioned above as a sneaky play against the terrible Carolina run defense this week. He’s still widely available, so add him if you’re looking for help with guys like Foster, Sproles, and Mendenhall on bye.
Also on bye this week is Brown. However, when Indy returns from the bye, they’ll face that same terrible Carolina run defense. Because he’s on bye, Brown’s ownership percentage may not jump too much this week. Go ahead and grab him now while he’s off everyone’s radar.
Kendall Hunter (San Francisco 49ers, 5.4% owned)
Keep an eye on Gore’s injury situation as Hunter is one of the more potentially explosive handcuffs in the league. If Gore can’t go, Hunter would be a nice play.
Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student in Dallas who is glad Lee Corso is the only former college football coach he channels. You can tell him it’s too soon and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.
(October 22, 2011 – Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images North America)
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