There is too much luck involved with the game as it is, and defenses only compound that problem.  It’s almost impossible to predict who the top defenses will be from year to year.  For example, the three defenses that separated themselves from the pack last year are 10th (Packers), 16th (Steelers), and 22nd (Patriots) in fantasy points so far this year. 

It just seems dumb to have everyone throwing a proverbial dart at the wall with their late round defense pick.

Despite all that, an overwhelming majority of leagues play with defenses.  As a result, you have to hope your 15th/16th round pick hits a bullseye or else you’re playing the waiver wire for the rest of the year. 

If you are stuck choosing defenses week to week and fighting for a playoff spot, here are a couple defenses available in most leagues that could be useful in the last two weeks of the fantasy regular season.

In the last two installments of this article, we examined the strength of schedule of opposing quarterbacks and running games that teams have faced.  In both cases, the Redskins were among the group found to have faced a significantly superior group of opponents.  Despite having faced a strong set of QBs and RBs, the Redskins are right in the middle of the pack at 17th among defenses in fantasy points.

Aside from a rough schedule, they’ve had some other bad luck.  The ‘Skins have forced 21 fumbles (2nd most in the league) but have recovered only six.  Coaches will often say their team has “a nose for the ball” or some crap like that, but which team ends up recovering a fumble is basically a 50-50 proposition.  Teams can’t consistently recover fumbles at a rate much higher or lower than 50%.  Needless to say, don’t expect the ‘Skins 28% recovery rate to keep up.  If they keep forcing the other team to put the ball on the ground, they’ll start picking them up.

Like a good Cab with a nice steak, a good defense needs to be paired with a nice matchup in order to have a perfect combination.  The Redskins happen to get a great matchup in each of the final two weeks of the regular season in the Seahawks and the Jets who allow the third and fourth most fantasy points to opposing defenses, respectively.  With those matchups, Washington should be a top ten fantasy defense for the next two weeks.

Like Washington, Miami has been severely unlucky when it comes to recovering forced fumbles.  Miami hasn’t forced quite as many (13), but their recovery rate is the lowest in the league at 15%.  They’re bound to recover some fumbles in the final six weeks.  And after coming up with only two interceptions in their first eight games, the Dolphins have four picks in the last two weeks. 

Those interceptions have helped Miami put together an excellent three weeks on defense.  They’ve allowed less than ten points in each of the last three weeks and have averaged about 13 fantasy points per game over that span.

The problem with Miami is that they’re not very good against the pass as they allow the 7th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.  However, they’re excellent against the run as they allow the second fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs.  Therefore, Miami is a matchup play. 

The Thanksgiving Day matchup against Dallas isn’t a favorable one, but the Oakland matchup in the final week of the fantasy regular season plays right into Miami’s strength.  They can handle Oakland’s formidable running game, and Carson Palmer is the type of QB Miami can deal with.

As always, here are a few players owned in less than 50% of ESPN leagues that might be worth a pickup.

Little is the only receiver with at least 60 targets who has yet to catch a touchdown.  That simply can’t keep up, and Little will find the end zone soon if he keeps getting that many looks. 

Speaking of looks, Williams got eleven targets on Sunday but only caught one pass.  Williams’ catch rate for the year of 44% isn’t necessarily high, but we can expect him to bring in more than one ball the next time he gets double digit targets.

And finally, Gaffney is a much more useful fantasy receiver with Rex Grossman at QB for the Redskins.  Gaffney has put up yardage pretty consistently, so he won’t kill you in weeks where he doesn’t find the end zone

As you can tell from his ownership percentage, not a lot of people thought Kevin Smith was capable of going off for 38 FANTASY POINTS (!!!!) this week.  There is no doubt he will be the most added player this week, but you ought to be careful about how much FAAB money you spend on him.  Who knows if he can consistently produce, especially considering his epic game came against the Panthers who allow the most fantasy points to opposing RBs by a healthy margin.

Speaking of those RB-friendly Panthers, Brown will face them this week.  Considering that the Panthers have been torn up by such mediocre backs as Smith, Beanie Wells, James Starks, and, I hate to say it, Chris Johnson, it’s entirely possible, if not likely, that a Colts back can put up some fantasy points against them.  I say Brown is that back, but I put in the call on Maurice Morris last week instead of Smith, so you can expect Delone Carter or worse, Joseph Addai, to kill it on Sunday.

Atlanta is a tough matchup for running backs, so Gerhart probably isn’t more than a flex play if Peterson is out this week.  And if Peterson misses a few weeks, Denver and Detroit aren’t easy to run on either.  Any guy getting a lot of work is worth a pickup, but temper expectations on Gerhart.