Fantasy Football

Week 12 Fantasy Football, “Peckin’ Order”: Will Kevin Smith Flourish or Flounder?

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Kevin Smith (credits below)

Highlight: Breaking down the players with the best playoff schedules going forward           

It is go time! The time of the year where your season is either over, or just beginning, with only two more regular season weeks this is the make or break time for your fantasy squads. It will be the moves you make now that will either win you your league, or flat out cost you the whole enchilada.

The 2011 season has had some major ups and downs, and if you are one of the lucky ones that have been able to come out of the bye weeks, or the injuries nearly unscathed then congratulations. However, if you were not as lucky, this is the time for you to step up your game and get the job done. Week 11 was another crazy week of injuries to star players. Another QB in Jay Cutler (CHI, 18) went done and will miss some significant time, first overall fantasy pick Adrian Peterson (MIN, 6) suffered a high ankle sprain that will cost him to lose several weeks as well. The prognosis seems better then expected with Peterson, but Felix Jones (DAL, 44) missed 4 weeks with the same injury, and with the fantasy playoffs coming up, plus the Vikings having no shot at making the playoffs Peterson may get shut down. Other injuries include Fred Jackson (BUF, 3), Matt Hasselbeck (TEN, 17) and A.J Green (CIN, 12). With all of these injuries occurring you will need to hit the wires and get yourself the right player for the playoff run.

Rise:

Carson Palmer (OAK, 36) has had three successful weeks in a row after suffering a terrible first appearance with Oakland where he played the second half 4 days after being acquired and threw three interceptions.  Since then his turnovers have gone down in each week, an in week 11 he had zero turnovers, which is great to see. In those three games Palmer has six touchdown passes, rushed for another and has exceeded at least 18 fantasy points in each. Going forward Palmer is facing Chicago (14), Miami (7), Green Bay (6), Detroit (28), Kansas City (12), and San Diego (8). With 5 remaining games against teams in the bottom half of fantasy points given up to opposing QBs, Palmer is a great choice for your teams if you were one of the unlucky ones to lose your starting QB for the season.

DeMarco Murray (DAL, 20) blasted on the scene with a 253-yard performance against the Rams in week 7, and since then he has exceeded 100 yards rushing twice more, and except for week 8, he has had over 95 yards from scrimmage in every game since being named the starter when Felix Jones went down. Felix came back from injury this week and most fantasy players were worried that he would take away from Murray’s production, but that just wasn’t the case. Murray was not only the starter but the Cowboys pretty much put all the whispering to a hush when they gave Murray 31 total touches and Felix only 6. Murray is going to be the starter going forward, and while we cannot predict how many touches Felix will get, it is safe to say that he will not kill Murray’s value. With a remaining schedule of Miami (31), Giants twice (13), Cardinals (12), Eagles (8) and Buccs (2), Murray should be the number one half back for you going into the fantasy playoffs.

Kevin Smith (DET, 49) crushed the Panthers this past week. But who doesn’t, the Panthers currently rank as the worst rushing defense in terms of fantasy points given up. Most people thought Smith would have a good game, but not as good as he evidently had. What’s nice about Smith is his remaining schedule. He faces three teams in the bottom 15 of fantasy points given up to opposing half backs, Vikings (11), Saints (14), Raiders (7) and has games against the Chargers (17) and Packers twice (21). Much like Murray, Smith has a very enjoyable schedule going forward and should at the least be looked at as a RB2 and / or flex spot going forward.

A player to keep on eye on going forward specifically if you had a run of injuries lately is Jake Locker (TEN, 40) who put up 18 fantasy points after Hasselbeck went down with an injury to his elbow in week 11. If Matt can’t go Locker will get the start and should do pretty well for you if you are in a pinch.

FALL:

Chris Ogbonnaya (CLE, 41) wins this year’s award for hardest name to pronounce in the National Football League. Just about every announcer, analyst, or broadcaster cannot pronounce his name correctly, and they’re probably right not to be able to, because with his remaining schedule if he isn’t dead by the time the season is over he will have been forgotten. Ogbonnaya had a pretty good game in week 11 vs. Jacksonville who has been pretty tough against the run, however going forward Ogbonnaya will face the Steelers and the Ravens twice, the Bengals in week 12 and in between all of that they have Arizona. Peyton Hillis (CLE, 44) and/or Montario Hardesty (CLE, 55) should also be coming off the injury report soon which will also severely hurt Ogbonnaya’s chances at being a relevant fantasy half back in the playoffs.

Although an injury to Fred Jackson may give him the starting nod while Jackson is on the shelf, C.J. Spiller (BUF, 64) shouldn’t be looked upon as an option to fill in if you lost someone like Jackson or Peterson. Spiller hasn’t been given an opportunity to truly shine just yet, and in a PPR league he will have some value. However, he is going up against tough rushing defenses like the Jets, Dolphins and Broncos. Spiller also goes up against the Patriots and the Chargers and while they aren’t the toughest to run on, they are nowhere near the easiest. For now stay away, if he proves he can be relevant then maybe but I doubt it.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (BUF, 15) started off masterfully with a total of 82 fantasy points through the first three weeks of the season. He looked like a new man, a man on a mission, someone who finally understand the game and he was going out there and preforming in such a manner. However, since week 3 Fitzpatrick only has a total of 76 fantasy points, which is a total of 7 games. It is safe to say that Fitzpatrick was masking his inability in the beginning of the season and it caused for many owners to jump on him only to disappoint for the remainder of the season. Over the last three weeks Fitzpatrick hasn’t scored more than 11 fantasy points, has committed ten turnovers and threw for only two touchdowns. Many people believe it’s the act of injuries that has caused the downturn, but I believe it’s a just a case of him being the quarterback we thought he was. Going forward, Fitz has games against the Jets, and Titans two teams that have been pretty tough against the pass in 2011. The one thing that might save him, and your fantasy seasons is his remaining schedule where he faces off against four teams in the bottom 10 against opposing QBs, although, he did just get 5 fantasy points in week 11 to the 8th worst passing defense, so it doesn’t look good.

We have hit the time of the year where the schedules and matchups are the most important part of your roster selection process. In the beginning of the year I would’ve told you were crazy to sit some of the players most people were asking me about. But now that we are getting into playoff time, matchups will be the thing that keep you from the toilet bowl, and get you to the championship.  

All Stats and Rankings are based on NON-PPR leagues unless otherwise stated, and are updated as of the end of week 10. 

Written by Justin Mandaro exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com
You can follow me on twitter @PeckinRotoX 

And as always I am available to answer any and all questions from 10am – 12pm on Sunday. 

(November 19, 2011 – Photo by Leon Halip/Getty Images North America)


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