Fantasy Football

Week 12 Fantasy Football, Sit ‘Em Start ‘Em: Robinson A Solid Start With Austin Still Out

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Laurent Robinson (credits below)

QB Start: Philip Rivers (San Diego Chargers, Week 12: Denver) 
QB Sit: Matt Ryan (Atlanta Falcons, Week 12: Minnesota)

This is less of a statement that you should sit Ryan and more of a statement that it seems odd that most have Ryan ranked above Rivers this week when the matchup is equal (they face the two most fantasy-friendly-to QB defenses in the league this week).  Rivers is capable of being a top five QB, and Ryan is squarely in the tier just below the elite quarterbacks and the tier just above risky plays like Flacco, Schaub, and Eli.

The only reason Ryan is in the same sentence as Rivers this year is because Rivers has had bad luck with the turnovers.  Interception rate is hardly a constant for QBs and not as within their control as you might think.  Rivers’ 4.4% INT% is well above the average of 3% or so.  He’ll start regressing to the mean at some point.

There seem to be 11 start-worthy QBs this week (Rodgers, Newton, Stafford, Brees, Romo, Eli, Brady, Tebow, Roethlisberger), and Rivers/Ryan round out that list.  No issue with starting Ryan.  Just saying that if the choice came down to Rivers and Ryan, Rivers is still my guy.

RB Start: Wills McGahee (Denver Broncos, Week 12: @ San Diego)
RB Sit: Ryan Mathews (San Diego Chargers, Week 12: Denver

Since Mathews racked up 125 yards against Denver’s run D in week 5, the Broncos haven’t allowed over 100 yards rushing to any group of running backs they have faced.  For the year, Denver’s run D has only given up one rushing touchdown to a running back.  So despite Mathews having some success last time out against them, the Broncos run D is pretty stout.  More importantly, since his 12 fantasy point day against Denver, Mathews has failed to reach double digit fantasy points in any game and averaged only five fantasy points per game in the four games in which he appeared.

Meanwhile, McGahee has accumulated a grand total of zero fantasy points in the last two weeks but was hampered by a hamstring injury in both games.  Having a full ten days to rest since his last game, McGahee is reportedly healthy and good-to-go.  He’ll go against the Chargers run D that gave up 125 yards on 16 carries to him in that week 5 matchup.  Fortunately for McGahee owners, the Chargers run D hasn’t had as much success as Denver’s run D has had when the two teams aren’t playing each other.

WR Start: Laurent Robinson (Dallas Cowboys, Week 12: Miami) 
WR Start: Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh Steelers, Week 12: @Kansas City)

ESPN has both of these guys ranked outside the top 20 (albeit close at 21 and 22), and I’m not sure what I’m missing here.  Robinson has four straight weeks with no fewer than nine fantasy points and is facing a Miami team whose strength is stopping the run, not the pass.  As long as Miles Austin is out, Robinson is start-worthy receiver in all formats.

As for Brown, it’s like he finally got the recognition he deserved prior to his bye week and came out of it being undervalued again.  He’s averaging ten fantasy points per game over his last four and has clearly assumed the #2 receiver role in Pittsburgh.  A WR2 with talent that has a capable QB throwing him the ball deserves a start unless the matchup dictates otherwise.  Kansas City has been average against opposing WRs but not so good as to warrant sitting Brown.

WR Sit: Anquan Boldin (Baltimore Ravens, Week 12: San Francisco 49ers)

Boldin has been somewhat inconsistent this year with six games of single digit fantasy points and has struggled to post yardage at times as he has five games with less than 50 receiving yards.  Given that Torrey Smith has seen his usage increase (nine receptions the last two weeks compared to Boldin’s three), Bolding doesn’t seem to be headed in the right direction.  San Francisco may force Baltimore to throw quite a bit because the 49ers are so good against the run, but this should be a low scoring game and touchdowns may be hard to come by.  For that reason, stay away from Boldin this week

TE Start: Owen Daniels (Houston Texans, Week 12: Jacksonville)

You could make the argument that Matt Schaub being out will hurt Daniels, but you could just as easily make the argument that Matt Leinart is likely to be conservative and might frequently use his TE underneath.  Daniels has been on a bit of a cold spell, but a lot of that has been because he hasn’t found the end zone in awhile.  He’s still a talented tight end who is facing a Jaguars team that isn’t so good at stopping talented tight ends, so this seems like a decent time for him to rebound.

TE Sit: Vernon Davis (San Francisco 49ers, Week 12: @Baltimore Ravens)

Yardage has not been Davis’ strength this year.  He’s managed more than 50 yards in a game just twice.  His week-to-week success has depended on him getting in the end zone (admittedly, this could be said about almost all tight ends).  Unfortunately for Davis, the Ravens have yet to give up a TD to an opposing tight end.  Not sure that streak gets broken this week.

Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com.  Brett is a law student in Dallas who hates pumpkin pie and whose mother doesn’t make good dressing.  Happy Thanksgiving indeed.  You can tell him to quit complaining about his #firstworldpains and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.

(November 12, 2011 – Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images North America)


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