Fantasy Football

Week 13 Fantasy Football, “Peckin’ Order”: LaGarette Blount On The Rise

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LaGarette Blount (credits below)

Highlight: One final push for the playoffs before your season, and your money is thrown away for good.

Here we go Ladies and Gentlemen, your final shot at making the playoffs for your fantasy leagues. Most leagues out there have one last game left until the playoffs begin and if you are lucky enough to have an additional game to get into the postseason then congratulations. However, for most, this week is the one that will keep you alive or bury you for good.

In week 12, we saw some pretty interesting performances, from Beanie Wells and his 200+ yard game, to Chris Johnson barely missing the 200-yard mark himself. We also have seen yet again more injuries to the quarterback position as fill-in for Matt Schaub (HOU, 12), Matt Leinart (HOU, 46) went down in the first half with a broken collarbone. Meanwhile some unfamiliar quarterbacks emerged with greatness this week as 10 signal callers broke the 20-fantasy point mark including Rex Grossman (WSH, 25), Ryan Fitzpatrick (BUF, 12), Mark Sanchez (NYJ, 10), Caleb Hanie (CHI, 40), and Vince Young (PHI, 39). With one week left in the fantasy regular season lets take a look at some of the best and worst matchups for the playoff run.

Rise:

LaGarette Blount (TB, 26) returned from his knee injury with two pretty subpar fantasy outings against teams that he should’ve put up numbers against. However since his those lackluster performances Blount has recorded back to back 100-yard games on fewer than 20 carries per game giving him an average of 5.5 yards per carry. Blount has also found the end zone once during that span as well. Going forward Blount goes up against the 4th weakest schedule against the run in the National Football League. With two games still to come against Carolina and one against the Jaguars who just lost their head coach look for Blount to power his way through to fantasy relevance again. The fact that he gets to practice against the 2nd worst fantasy rushing defense in the league on a daily basis will only help him when going up against these teams. Please be weary however of his week 17 match up, most likely your championship game, when he faces the Atlanta Falcons who are giving up less than 14 fantasy points to opposing running backs this season.

Rex Grossman was recently given the starting position back after losing it earlier this year to John Beck (WSH, 37) in week 7. Since then he has recorded two games of more than 290 yards passing and in each of those games has found the end zone twice. His turnovers need to come down a bit, but with Santana Moss (WSH, 71) back the field will be opened up to get others involved and he will be able to sling the ball around. Grossman has the 16th weakest schedule for quarterbacks however two of his remaining games are against the worst team against opposing QBs (Minnesota) and the second worst (New England), not to mention he also has the Eagles and Giants still to come, two teams not known for stopping the pass.

When did Reggie Bush (MIA, 18) learn how to be a NFL running back. For years Bush has been a PPR monster with his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield, but was never able to consistently run through the tackles or become that rushing threat everyone thought he would be out of college. Over the last 5 weeks Bush has seemed to figure it all out with double-digit fantasy points in each week so far, with 4 touchdowns rushing over that same span. The one consistent part of it all is that he is getting the ball, with at least 13 carries in each of those 5 games, Bush has also caught at least 3 passes in every one. Bush faces the 6th weakest schedule for running backs to finish out the season with Oakland, Philly, and Buffalo over the next three weeks, a group of teams who have all allowed more than 20 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this season.

Notable players on the rise include Eric Decker (DEN, 12) and Demaryius Thomas (DEN, 120) of Denver. By now you should all understand my complete hatred of Tim Tebow (DEN, 22). While he may be 5 – 1 as a starter this year he has significantly crushed the value of these two wide outs. Going forward, the Broncos face the 3rd weakest schedule against opposing wide outs. If Tebow can figure out how to raise that completion percentage over 45% Decker who has caught 4 of Tebow’s 5 touch down passes and Thomas will be the guys who benefit greatly. (I still doubt it but keep it in mind).

Fall:

Three weeks ago Michael Vick (PHI, 14) went down with broken ribs, and has not played since. Vince Young stepped into the role of starting quarterback and has preformed with flying colors. You may ask me with all of his success why would he be falling? Well, his first two opponents are perpetually terrible against opposing quarterbacks and he was able to shine because of it. Going forward Young, and subsequently Vick when he comes back, faces the 10th toughest schedule for quarterbacks. The Eagles soar across the country to face Seattle on a short week who currently ranks 10th among opposing quarterbacks tonight. The rest of the schedule isn’t any easier as they face only one team that is given up more than 16 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. The schedule isn’t any easier for the Eagle running backs or wide receivers as their schedule ranks 3rd toughest for the run, and 5th toughest for the wide outs, so be prepared for tough games with LeSean McCoy (PHI, 1) and the Eagles pass catchers.

Adrian Peterson (MIN, 4) missed his week 12 game with a high ankle sprain. Toby Gerhart (MIN, 69) stepped in and was able to score but wasn’t able to rack up the yards that is needed to be a valuable fantasy starter. Peterson is still ailing from the injury but has been active running during practices and seems to be better. However, his status is still unknown for the game and won’t be until game time on Sunday. In the end it won’t be the injury that forces you to be fearful of these two halfbacks, but their remaining schedule should have you skeptical. The Vikings have the 10th toughest schedule for running backs still to come, with games against Denver, Detroit, Chicago, and Washington all teams who give up less than 18.2 points per game to opposing halfbacks. They do have a week 15 matchup against the Saints that looks very enticing, but the rest of their schedule should keep you hesitant.

Marshawn Lynch (SEA, 11) has been absolutely dominant so far this year. Lynch has recorded 6 double-digit fantasy point outings over the last 8 weeks and has scored in 6 of those games as well. The next two weeks are very interesting for Lynch, but it’s the semi-finals and finals weeks that you’ll need to worry about when looking to start or sit Lynch. Both the Eagles and the Rams are giving up more than 20 points per game to opposing running backs which should make Lynch an immediate start. Weeks 15, 16, and 17 are a completely different story when he faces Chicago, San Francisco, and the Arizona Cardinals, three teams who have given up less than 18 fantasy points to opposing halfbacks.

A lot of experts believed that this year would be Vincent Jackson’s (SD, 8) break out season. He seemed to put the contract distractions behind him when the lockout was lifted. Although it isn’t being reported that this is an issue with VJax his value has significantly dropped. In 5 of Jackson’s last 7 games he has recorded less than 5 fantasy points, which just isn’t going to cut it. In the games when he isn’t playing terribly he is exploding with more than 20 fantasy points in each. Going forward Jackson needs to be relegated to being a WR3 he will either be amazing or absolutely atrocious, there doesn’t seem to be an in between. The playoffs will not be very kind to Vincent Jackson and the rest of the San Diego Chargers. They face the 11th toughest schedule for wide receivers with games against Jacksonville who are giving up less than 15 points to opposing wide outs, and the Ravens later in the playoffs.

Two players you should keep an eye on for the playoffs will be Arian Foster (HOU, 3) and Ben Tate (HOU, 27). So far in 2011, Tate has been a pretty nice flex option for deeper leagues and Foster has been one of the best halfbacks to play this year. But with both their starting quarterback, and second string quarterback going down for the entire season teams will begin to stack the box vs. these two versatile ball carriers. The schedule favors them as they have the 3rd weakest schedule for running backs but with defenses forcing the Texans to beat them with the pass we may see a small drop off from these guys.

If you are one of those teams that have already made it to the playoffs then congratulations, and for those of you who need production from your guys in this final week before the playoffs begin good luck. Some great match ups are out there, and if you make the right decision you can find yourself on the inside, but make one false step and you’ll be the jealous one on the outside looking in. 

Written by Justin Mandaro exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com
You can follow me on twitter 
@PeckinRotoX 

And as always I am available to answer any and all questions from 10am – 12pm on Sunday. 

(November 19, 2011 – Photo by Elsa/Getty Images North America)


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