Week 14 Fantasy Football MarketWatch: Matt Forte Out, Marion Barber Leads The Waiver Wire
The Free Market
Rex Grossman (Washington Redskins, 8.5% owned)
Christian Ponder (Minnesota Vikings, 7.9% owned)
Matt Moore (Miami Dolphins, 5.5% owned)
Both Moore and Ponder have been entirely adequate over their last six games. Each guy has recorded double digit fantasy points in five of those six games, and Moore is averaging 14.5 fantasy points per game while Ponder is averaging 12.3. Unfortunately, neither draws a particularly favorable matchup this week as Miami faces Philadelphia and Minnesota travels to Detroit.
But Grossman has the enviable New England matchup. Since reclaiming the starting job from John Beck four games ago, Grossman has two games of four fantasy points, and he averaged twenty fantasy points between the other two. So hit or miss seems to be an accurate description of what you can expect to get from Grossman. With this matchup, “hit” is more likely than “miss.” New England is going to throw four touchdowns to Gronkowski, so you know Washington will being playing catch up against a secondary that allowed Dan Orlovsky to score 20 fantasy points last week.
Marion Barber (Chicago Bears, 17.3% owned)
Barber is pretty obviously the #1 pickup this week with Matt Forte injured. And although you probably shouldn’t expect too much out of Barber, he’s a no-brainer pickup if you’re looking for a flex play this week. Since the majority of your league mates are out of the running now, a #7 waiver claim or later might be enough to get you Barber.
Damian Williams (Tennessee Titans, 10.2% owned)
Brad Smith (Buffalo Bills, 0.2% owned)
Golden Tate (Seattle Seahawks, 0.2% owned)
First of all, Williams is clearly the best widely available receiver for your flex spot this week. He’s been good over his last six games, averaging almost eight fantasy points per game, and he has a great matchup against the Saints this week. If you need a receiver/flex option and Williams is available, he’s your man.
But if he’s already owned, Smith and Tate might be nice plays this week. Smith has 70+ yards in each of the last two weeks, and he led the Bills with ten targets last week. Buffalo faces an average pass defense in San Diego this week. Tate has been in on more of Seattle’s snaps recently, and he has a touchdown in each of the last two games. If you need to play Tate, you’re either desperate or in a deep league, but he could cash in again versus St. Louis this week.
Demaryius Thomas (1.8% owned) and Andre Roberts (1.3% owned) had big games last week, but Thomas has a tough matchup against the Bears, and you’ll have to forgive me for not buying in on Andre Roberts. If you’re reaching this far down, Smith and Tate are more worth your flier attention.
Anthony Fasano (Miami Dolphins, 2.2% owned)
Tony Scheffler (Detroit Lions, 2.1% owned)
Assuming the Ballards, Chandlers, Greshams and Celeks of the world are all owned in your league (all owned between 20-30%), then there’s not much left in the way of waiver wire tight end plays. But unless you own one of the four or five studs at the position, you’re basically just hoping to hit a touchdown in your TE slot each week. Fasano and Scheffler both play teams that are middle-of-the-pack against TEs, so maybe one of them gets in the end zone and gets you eight or nine fantasy points. Fasano is probably the preferred choice since he’s the only TE Miami has and Scheffler has to compete with Brandon Pettigrew.
Seattle Seahawks D/ST (16% owned)
Denver Broncos D/ST (11.5% owned)
Arizona Cardinals D/ST (4.5% owned)
Seattle is a great pickup this week for your D/ST spot. On the year, they’re 11th among defenses in fantasy points. They’re also coming off a 17 point week 13 performance. In week 11 they also scored 17 fantasy points when they faced the St. Louis Rams. As scheduling would have it, Seattle faces that same Rams team this week, the Rams team who allows the most fantasy points to opposing defenses.
Since week 9, Denver has averaged just over 10 fantasy points per game. This week they face the Caleb-Hanie led Bears and could very well come up with another ten fantasy points. And in the event Denver and Seattle are both owned (highly unlikely), you could feel comfortable rolling with Arizona’s defensive unit. They’ve averaged just shy of ten fantasy points per game over their last six, and this week they face a San Francisco team who is really good but whose strength isn’t necessarily its offense.
Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student in Dallas who wishes comprehension of income tax material was as easy as identifying good defensive spot starts. You can tell him to quit bitching and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.