Fantasy Football

Week 7 Fantasy Football MarketWatch: Manningham’s Luck About to Turn Around?

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Mario Manningham (credits below)

Unless you watch every play of a football game, you won’t see how every player impacted the game.  Even when you do watch every play, it’s impossible to watch all 22 guys.  The impact of a nickel back bumping a receiver off his route and disrupting the play or the impact of a second-level block by the left guard inevitably go unnoticed all too frequently.  And because football box scores are limited to things like yardage, reception and carries, and tackles, the impact of these things is never recorded and essentially ignored and/or forgotten.

Because that is the nature of the football beast, you might have missed just how close Mario Manningham (New York Giants) came to having a monster day.  The box score shows Manningham finished the day with five catches for 56 yards on eight targets.  But what the box score doesn’t tell you is that Manningham had two touchdown receptions overturned by replay and another pass thrown his way that likely would have been a touchdown catch had pass interference not been called on his defender.

One thing the box score does show us is that Manningham led the Giants in targets and doubled up his competition for the #2 receiver spot, Victor Cruz, in that category.  Manningham’s 900+ yards and nine touchdowns in 2010 are evidence that he is a better receiver than Cruz.  As a result, Manningham should continue to see more opportunity than Cruz.  With the opportunity and skill all Manningham needs is some good luck.  Hell, all he may need is the absence of bad luck.  Unless you’re a fan of the Cubs, Clippers or any Cleveland team, bad luck never lasts.  Manningham should see some positive regression in the luck category sometime soon and is an excellent buy-low candidate. 

The Free Market

QB Tim Tebow (Denver Broncos, 40.5% owned)

Maybe it’s because Denver had a bye last week, but Tebow only saw his ownership percentage increase by 38% in the week after he replaced Kyle Orton in the 2nd half of Denver’s game against San Diego.  That was a second half in which Tebow managed to accumulate 16 fantasy points.  Sixteen!  In one half!  If Tebow wasn’t added in your league, don’t let him slip through your fingers again this week.  Denver faces Miami in Week 7 and the Dolphins are terrible against the QB.  Tebow should have a big game and could very well be owned in virtually all leagues this time next week.

RB Montario Hardesty (Cleveland Browns, 15.4% owned)

Thanks to injuries to Jerome Harrison and James Davis, Peyton Hillis grabbed the lead back role in Cleveland early in the 2010 season.  With Hillis’ health in question, Hardesty could potentially pull a ‘Hillis’ on Hillis himself. 

Hillis is a better back than Harrison and Davis were, so whenever it is that he’s back on the field he’s likely to put a significant hit on any fantasy value Hardesty may obtain.  But for the time being Hardesty is a guy getting all the carries.  That alone has value, but this isn’t a situation where the new #1 back is someone we know to be inadequate or washed up.  Hardesty is a second year back but essentially a rookie after missing all of last season with an injury.  Who knows?  Maybe Hardesty is a legitimate NFL runner.  You should add him and hope that he is while hoping that Hillis stays off the field.

RB DeMarco Murray (Dallas Cowboys, 3.3% owned)

Murray is in a situation similar to Hardesty as Felix Jones is out 2-4 weeks with a high ankle sprain.  Also like Hardesty, Murray is a young player.  However, Murray’s immediate future doesn’t look quite as bright as Murray will have some competition with Tashard Choice for carries and will have to deal with a bad offensive line.  If you’re desperate for RB help or just have a bench spot to play with on your roster, Murray is worth speculatively adding. 

WR Jerome Simpson (Cincinnati Bengals, 36.2% owned)

Simpson has topped 100 yards receiving yards twice this season, both times against defenses that rank in the top 5 of most fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers (Denver and Indianapolis).  So Simpson is a mainly a matchup play.  Unfortunately, the Bengals have two games remaining against Baltimore and two games remaining against Pittsburgh as well as two other unfavorable matchups against Tennessee and Cleveland.  However, there are a few good matchups left on Cincinnati’s slate, one of which comes two weeks from now when they come off their bye to face Seattle. 

Simpson has yet to score a touchdown so some positive regression in that category is to be expected at some point.  For those of you that will be without Roddy White, Greg Jennings or Santonio Holmes in week 8, maybe you should grab Simpson heading into his bye this week and use him as a fill in next week.

WR Jabar Gaffney (Washington Redskins, 7.6% owned)

How about this for consistency?  Gaffney has between 54 and 62 yards receiving in each of his five games.  He has been good for 5-6 fantasy points per week and recorded 11 fantasy points when he caught a touchdown pass in week 1.  During the bye weeks you could do much worse than a guy who is almost certain to give you 5-6 points and potentially double digits if he gets in the end zone.

TE Fred Davis (Washington Redskins, 47.3% owned)

Although you can’t catch every detail when watching a football game, that doesn’t mean things can’t stand out.  And Fred Davis stood out on Sunday.  Although Philadelphia isn’t the greatest against opposing tight ends, Davis did what a good tight end should do against a team like that.  He had six catches for an impressive 95 yards.  He also led the team in targets with 11 (Gaffney was 2nd with 10).  His ownership percentage should be, and will be, much higher than the 50% mark.

TE Brent Celek (Philadelphia Eagles, 6.6% owned)

After almost 1,000 yards receiving and eight touchdowns in 2009, Celek was poised to be an excellent young tight end for years to come.  But then Michael Vick came along and the results were never the same for Celek.  However, he did show signs of life late in 2010.  Aside from two games against the Cowboys where he failed to record a catch, Celek had a decent last six weeks of the season with games of 11, 5, 13, and 9 fantasy points.  That success did not really carry over to this season as he had only five fantasy points in the first five games, but he had 42 yards and a touchdown catch this week for a ten fantasy point day.  There’s a good chance Sunday was an aberration, but Celek is at least worth monitoring after Philly’s bye this week.

Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com.  Brett is a law student in Dallas who wishes his friends sometimes had bye weekends from their wives.  You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.

(September 18, 2011 – Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images North America)


Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Advice, Marketwatch, Stock, Brett Talley, Week 7
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