In case you’re not familiar with the strategy that is “Stars and Scrubs,” the basic idea is that you spend a substantial portion of your auction budget on elite players, spend very little on mid-level players, and fill out your roster with a bunch of guys for a buck or two.  It’s hard to say exactly where the cut off for elite “stars” was this year, but the top 30 in average draft position seems reasonable.  So, if someone spent 75%+ on four, maybe five, top 30 players, how does their team look heading into Week 8?

If someone navigated the minefield and ended up with something like Ray Rice, Michael Turner, Calvin Johnson, and Hakeem Nicks (might’ve cost something around $160), then they’re probably sitting pretty.  But avoiding the mines is difficult and often out of the fantasy owner’s control.  “Stars and Scrubs” might be better termed “Boom or Bust.” 

The other thing to consider is how much more devastating injuries and poor performance will be during the bye weeks and how difficult it may be to field a solid lineup without any depth during the bye weeks.  In the end, “Stars and Scrubs” is far too risky a strategy.  The chance that your fantasy season could effectively be over in the first few weeks isn’t a chance worth taking.

Moreover, the week to week success of a defense is more dependent on opponent than any offensive position.  Because only 10-12 defenses are usually drafted in standard leagues, owners have the opportunity to take advantage of favorable matchups each week.  Theoretically, and likely practically, fantasy owners can piece together a point total from the D/ST slot that equals that of a top five defense by taking a defense in the last two rounds and using the options on the wire.

Because you can get respectable production out of your defense with one of your last two picks, there is no need to waste a late mid-round pick that could potentially land you a position player like AJ Green, Matthew Stafford, Jimmy Graham, Willis McGahee, Cam Newton, Darren Sproles, or Aaron Hernandez.  Those lottery tickets are far more valuable than making sure you get the Eagles defense.

As for kickers, only 17 fantasy points separate the #1 kicker from the #10 kicker.  By comparison, 72 points separate the #1 running back from the #25 running back (I’m assuming 5 RB’s are used in the flex spot), and 76 points separate the #1 wide receiver from the #25 wide receiver.  In other words, kickers are all relatively the same.  No point in using anything other than your last pick on one.

Almost everyone already knows there is no point in taking kickers and defenses before the last two rounds, but the evidence 2011 has presented reinforces that notion.

There are two rationales for waiting on QB’s and TE’s.  

The first is the perception that, like kickers, there is not a significant gap between the #1 and #10 at those positions.  However, that perception is just plain false.  70 points separate Aaron Rodgers from Mark Sanchez and 50 points separate Jimmy Graham from Brandon Pettigrew.  There is a clear delineation between the elite and everyone else at these two positions.

The second is the idea that if you lose your starting QB or TE to injury or have to bench them because of poor performance, you will have had to the chance to draft a respectable backup in the later rounds, or there will be options on the wire with which to replace them.  This rationale holds up better than the first.  Cam Newton (12th round), Mark Sanchez (13th round), and Ryan Fitzpatrick (14th round) range from a must-start quarterback to a surprisingly decent fantasy quarterback to a completely respectable quarterback.  Moreover, Tim Tebow went undrafted and should be owned, and probably started, in every ten-team league.

As for tight ends, these current top ten tight ends were not among the first ten tight ends drafted: Greg Olsen, Tony Gonzalez, Rob Gronkowski, Brandon Pettigrew, Fred Davis, and Dustin Keller.  Not to mention Aaron Hernandez, who might be a top five TE option going forward, was drafted behind almost all of those guys just listed.

It would appear, at least this year, that waiting on QB’s and TE’s could easily have paid huge dividends assuming you wisely used the early picks you saved for RB’s and WR’s.