Daily Fantasy Hockey Strategy: January 14, 2016
Welcome to The Fantasy Fix daily fantasy hockey strategy. Below you will find rankings and projections for tonight’s NHL action. Building a winning lineup isn’t easy, so we’ll do our best to guide you in the right direction and help you win some serious cash. With that, let’s take a look at some matchups you should be targeting tonight.
As always, make sure to check out LeftWingLock for goalie confirmations.
All shot attempt numbers discussed are at even strength and score-adjusted unless otherwise noted.
Teams To Target
San Jose Sharks v. Edmonton Oilers
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The San Jose Sharks are an interesting team. They’re loaded with skilled players that can change the game at any moment, yet they aren’t a great team at home (6-12-0) and are averaging just 2.16 GF/60. Despite all that, they are taking on the Edmonton Oilers tonight, a team that is allowing 2.83 GA/60 on the road while averaging just 1.61 GF/60.
Edmonton’s best possession line is their top line, so avoiding whichever line has to play them would be ideal. San Jose usually matches their top line against their opponent’s top line, meaning Joe Thornton and company will most likely have to face Taylor Hall and his line mates. Thornton’s line is a pretty good possession line overall, so I’m not completely against taking Thornton- Joe Pavelski as a mini stack. Tomas Hertl has found his way onto the top line and is as absolute steal on FanDuel at $3700.
The second line for the Sharks is the line that has the better matchup. Patrick Marleau, Joel Ward and Matthew Nieto are worth a stack in GPPs if you don’t want to pay up for the big boys, but not one of those players play together on the power play. Marleau is also listed at C on FanDuel, so that makes it even harder to roster him tonight.
On the blue line, Brent Burns is always a good option, especially in a favourable matchup like this one. His price has fallen a bit over on FanDuel to below 8K, so if you want pay up for the all-star defenseman, that would be the site to do it on. He isn’t a terrible play on DraftKings, but trying to fit Thornton-Pavelski-Burns into a cash game lineup will be a challenge.
Winnipeg Jets v. Nashville Predators
The Predators have been one of the better teams in the NHL over the last few seasons, but this year, it’s been a bit more of a challenge. There’s no question that Nashville has never been a high scoring offence, but they are averaging just 1.46 GF/60 on the road this season—raked 29th in the league. They’ve also been unable to keep the puck out of their net—allowing 2.79 GA/60 away from Bridgestone Arena. Those two stats alone are enough for me to go with the Winnipeg Jets tonight.
The Jets don’t have a ton of options up front, but Bryan Little and Blake Wheeler are always two of the best options to consider. They also play together on the top power play unit and will certainly be counted on to provide the offence for this Jets team. Drew Stafford rounds out the top line and isn’t a terrible option if you want to save some salary. He doesn’t play on the top power play unit with his fellow line mates, but he does play on the second unit.
If the top line is too pricey to roster, Winnipeg’s third line of Nikolaj Ehlers, Matthieu Perreault and Chris Thorburn is an option to consider. Thorburn isn’t really someone I would recommend playing tonight, but Ehlers-Perrealut is a mini-stack I could get on board with. They play on opposite power plays (Perreault plays on the top unit), but both players should be able to avoid Shea Weber and Roman Josi at five-on-five.
On defense, big Dustin Byfuglien is an excellent play tonight. It’s impossible to fit Burns-Byfuglien into the same lineup, so you’ll probably have to pick one. For my money, I would probably go with Burns, but if you want to stack Little-Wheeler-Byfuglien, I wouldn’t call you crazy.
In goal, Connor Hellebuyck is the goalie I’ll be plugging into every lineup I play. The kid has been a nice surprise for the Jets this season and he continues to be a reliable option for DFS players. He’s a better play on FanDuel because his price is below 7K, but he still remains an excellent play on DraftKings as well.
Washington Capitals v. Vancouver Canucks
The Capitals are one of the best teams in the NHL when it comes to scoring goals. Alex Ovechkin recently surpassed 500 goals in the NHL and will be looking tot add to that total tonight against Vancouver.
Let’s start with the obvious here—Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom. Ovi is an expensive option to roster, and quite frankly, I don’t think it’s worth paying up for him, but at this point in the season, the winger is basically matchup proof and has demonstrated he can score against any team. The problem with Ovi is you’ll need him to pick up multiple points in order for him to hit value, which is a lot to ask, but if anyone can do it, it’s Alex. Backstrom is a solid option down the middle and his price on FanDuel is actually quite reasonable.
If you can’t afford to play Ovechkin and Backstrom, Washington’s second line is another great option, specifically Evgeny Kuznetsov and Justin Williams. The two play together on the second power play unit and both should be able to get away from Vancouver’s top line. Kuznetsov’s value isn’t amazing, but Williams’ value balances that out.
On the back end, Matt Niskanen continues to be the best defenseman for the Capitals with John Carlson still out of the lineup. His price is still reasonable and he continues to be a shot-blocking machine—averaging about 2.5 blocked shots per game in his last ten games. He’s a better on DraftKings because of the blocked shots, but I wouldn’t hesitate to use him on Fanduel if you wanted to go that route.
In the crease, Braden Holtby is the most expensive goalie on both sites, but his matchup against Vancouver is exceptional. If you aren’t starting Hellebuyck, Holtby is the next best option. He’s 7-0-1 in his last ten starts with a 2.22 GAA and a .925 SV%.
Player Rankings
Ranking are price sensitive
Players marked with an * are listed at different positions on FanDuel or DraftKings
Forwards
- Joe Thornton—San Jose Sharks—DK: $5100, FD: $5300
- Mathieu Perreault*—Winnipeg Jets—DK:$4100, FD:$4800
- Robby Fabbri—St. Louis Blues—DK:$2900, FD$4100 (better value on DK)
- Bryan Little—Winnipeg Jets—DK:$5600, FD$6000
- Nicklas Backstrom—Washington Capitals—DK:$6600, FD:$6800
- Joe Pavelski*—San Jose Sharks—DK:$7700, FD:$8300 (better value on DK)
- Evgeny Kuznetsov—Washington Capitals—DK:$6000, FD:$6000
Wingers
- Tomas Hertl (LW)—San Jose Sharks—DK:$4400, FD:$3700 (better value on FD)
- Nikolaj Ehlers (RW)—Winnipeg Jets—DK:$3600, FD:$3900
- Justin Williams (RW)—Washington Capitals—DK:$4700, FD:$4300
- Vladimir Tarasenko (RW)—St. Louis Blues—DK:$7900, FD:$8300
- Alexander Ovechkin (LW)—Washington Capitals—DK:$8700, FD:$9700 (better value on DK)
- Blake Wheeler (RW)—Winnipeg Jets—DK:$6800, FD:$6300
- Taylor Hall (LW)—Edmonton Oilers—DK:$7200, FD:$7900 (better value on DK)
- Patrick Kane (RW)—Chicago Blackhawks—DK:$8900, FD:$9000
Defenseman
- Matt Niskanen—Washington Capitals—DK:$4600, FD:$4400
- Mike Green—Detroit Red Wings—DK:$4400, FD:$4200
- Jacob Trouba—Winnipeg Jets—DK:$4100, FD:$4300
- Oliver Ekman-Larsson—Arizona Coyotes—DK:$5900, FD:5600 (better value on DK)
- Brent Burns—San Jose Sharks—DK:$8300, FD:$7200 (better value on FD)
- Kevin Shattenkirk—St. Louis Blues—DK:$6400, FD:$5400 (better value on FD)
- Dustin Byfuglien—Winnipeg Jets—DK:$6300, FD:$6000
Goalie
- Connor Hellebuyck—Winnipeg Jets—DK:$7200, FD:$6800
- Braden Holtby—Washington Capitals—DK:$8500, FD:$9800
- Martin Jones—San Jose Sharks—DK:$7000, FD:$6900
- Corey Crawford—Chicago Blackhawks—DK:$8300, FD:$10,000 (better value on DK)
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