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College Football DFS: Week 2 – Early Slate

Below are positional rankings for the 15-game early slate of DraftKings contests on Saturday with some commentary along the way. Keep in mind that salary has a huge impact on a player’s ranking. 

Quarterback

  1. Malik Zaire – $7,300 – Notre Dame
  2. Deshaun Watson – $9,900 – Clemson
  3. Seth Collins – $6,500 – Oregon State
  4. Lamar Jackson – $6,100 – Louisville

There’s a big three set of quarterbacks in this slate that includes Deshaun Watson along with Luke Falk and Cardale Jones. All three are roughly appropriately priced, so there’s no value to be had in that price range, though that’s not a surprise at that cost. Watson is the most expensive of the three, but he’s also got the best projection, so that’s where I’d lean were you able to splurge on a QB. The case against Cardale is that there are a lot of mouths to feed for the Buckeyes. Ezekiel Elliott could easily get a ton of work and red zone carries, Braxton Miller made plain he can do damage in any capacity, and J.T. Barrett could come into the game sooner rather than later with Ohio State being a huge favorite this weekend.

Whether you go with Watson or one of the other big three is up in the air. But rostering Malik Zaire shouldn’t be much of a question. Zaire’s projection this weekend is a bit lower than that of the big three, but his salary is quite a bit lower than the triumvirate’s. Given the relative proximity of his projection to that of the big three, his price tag should be in the high eight’s according to my model, which makes him one of the better values of the slate.

Zaire was remarkably efficient in Week 1 completing 19 of 22 passes for 313 yards and three touchdowns against a Texas defense that ranked third in pass defense last year according to the S&P ratings. Zaire’s price tag has jumped quite a bit from where it was last week, but it didn’t jump enough. One other note on Zaire is that the Irish are now without RB Tarean Folston after a season-ending injury last week. And according the our resident Irish expert, the boss Alan Harrison, ND is also without their original second RB, Greg Bryant, after he failed to qualify academically. Senior C.J. Prosise is all they have left at running back, and Prosise has been given just 30 carries in his time at Notre Dame. I expect they’ll have to lean on Zaire heavily.

One thing I really like about this early slate is that you’ve got options when building your lineup. Value is limited in the night slate (which will be discussed in a separate post), but there are cheap options at every position in this slate, which allows you to go in several different directions.

At quarterback, Seth Collins and Lamar Jackson are cheap options to pair with Zaire, which allow you to spend big elsewhere as opposed to paying up for someone like Watson. Admittedly, both guys come with some risk. In some places, Marcus McMaryion is still listed as Oregon State’s starting QB. But Collins clearly won the starting job last week, throwing the ball 18 times to McMaryion’s four and carrying the ball 17 times. On those 17 carries he racked up 152 yards, which obviously makes Collins a potentially huge value this week at such a low price point. Still, OSU’s coaches are paying some lip service to the possibility of two-QB system, so Collins does not come completely without risk. But the job is his, and I’d expect him to play a very large percentage of the game unless he struggles horrendously.

As for Jackson, he entered Week 1 as part of a four-man logjam at quarterback for Louisville, but he emerged from the game against Auburn as the clear starter in Week 2. As noted in that article, Reggie Bonnafon wasn’t just awful in his work in last week’s game, and last year’s starter Will Gardner is back in practice this week after a rib injury kept him out last week. So there’s perhaps a more real chance that Jackson struggles and cedes the role to another QB at some point in the game than there is that Collins gets pulled, but it’s probably unlikely. The quotes from Petrino make it sound pretty safe that Jackson is the guy. He ran for over 100 yards against Auburn in less than a full game’s work, so he could have a field day this week against a Houston team that ranked 103rd in run defense last year according to the S&P ratings.

Running Back

  1. LeShun Daniels – $5,300 – Iowa
  2. Patrick Skov – $4,400 – Georgia Tech
  3. Alex Collins – $8,900 – Arkansas
  4. Dare Ogunbowale – $3,900 – Wisconsin
  5. Taiwan Deal – $4,900 – Wisconsin
  6. Marcus Cox – $5,400 – Appalachian State

Quarterback has the big three in the early slate, and running back has the big four. Nick Chubb, Ezekiel Elliott, Derrick Henry and Alex Collins are all priced at $8,900 or higher, and the fifth most expensive running back is only $6,800. That’s quite the gap.

Ohio State is a huge favorite and, as mentioned, has many mouths to feed, so I dont’t trust Elliott to see enough work to make his price tag worth it. Henry and Alabama are huge favorites this week, so I don’t know that Henry sees much work in the second half. That said, Bama doesn’t have nearly the number of weapons that Ohio State does, so Henry could see enough work early to be worth it. Chubb will face Vanderbilt, and Georgia is only a 21-point favorite. That’s at least two touchdowns lower than the lines on the Alabama and Ohio State games, so perhaps Chubb sees enough work in the second half to be worth it, but he also has the highest price tag of the group. Arkansas is also about a three-touchdown favorite, so Alex Collins has a shot at seeing a good chunk of work in the second half as well, but he’s $900 cheaper than Chubb. For that reason, Collins would be the RB I’d be most likely to pay up for.

However, I don’t see my self paying up for Collins. Watson at quarterback would be more likely to get my splurge dollars. That’s due in large part to the value available at running back, and that starts with LeShun Daniels. Daniels was a clear workhorse for Iowa in Week 1 carrying the ball 26 times for 123 yards. He’s got a great matchup against an Iowa State team that ranked 126th (out of 128) against the run last year according to S&P ratings.

For $900 less than Daniels, you can have a guy that scored three touchdowns last week and led his team in carries. Patrick Skov is one of the backs in Georgia Tech’s triple option offense, and he carried the ball 12 times last week for 72 yards and three scores. Marcus Marshall was much more effective than Skov carrying the ball eight times for 184 yards and he’s only $4,200, so he’s in play as well this week. But I prefer the guy who got the larger chunk of carries in Week 1.

Finally, we’ve got the RB situation in Wisconsin. Corey Clement apparently tweaked a groin in practice last week, but we didn’t hear anything about it until he was “limited” in the matchup against Alabama. He has said he’s playing this week, and he’s supposedly a game time decision. Thankfully, that’s an 11:00 a.m. CT game, so we should know Clement’s availability before rosters lock. If he is active, that renders all of Wisconsin’s backs unusable I think. Clement obviously can’t be trusted until we see he’s fully healthy, and the backups would be too risky to roster if Clement is active in any capacity.

But if Clement sits this one out, there is value to be had there. Taiwan Deal got six carries last week and Dare Ogunbowale got just three, but it was Ogunbowale who apparently won the primary backup job in the offseason. Given that report and the fact that Ogunbowale is $1,000 cheaper than Deal this week, he’s probably the Wiscy back I’ll roll with if Clement is inactive.

Wide Receiver

  1. Leonte Carroo – $6,700 – Rutgers
  2. Dom Williams – $5,000 – Washington State
  3. Will Fuller – $7,600 – Notre Dame
  4. Demarcus Ayers – $6,000 – Houston
  5. Amara Darboh – $5,100 – Michigan
  6. Jaylen Smith – $3,000 – Louisville
  7. Artavis Scott – $7,900 – Clemson

Let’s start with the stack options toward the bottom of this list. First, Will Fuller is almost a must play given how much I like Zaire. The problem is that Fuller is just about perfectly priced in my estimation, so that doesn’t leave any room for value. Zaire did plenty of running in his start against LSU in the bowl game last year, so it’s possible that he’ll do some damage on the ground and you don’t have to stack him with a receiver. But unless you just can’t make the dollars work on Fuller, I’d have him paired with Zaire.

Speaking of doing damage on the ground, we already mentioned how Collins and Jackson did so last week when they earned the starting QB jobs, so they don’t necessarily have to be paired with a receiver. But I have included one Louisville receiver here as a possible stack option with Jackson simply because Jaylen Smith is the minimum price. The true freshman earned a start in his first collegiate game and recorded three catches for 34 yards. An injury to Jamari Staples opened a spot for Smith, and I see no report that Staples is expected back this week. To be sure, three catches for 34 yards is nothing to write home about, but with a minimum price tag, a starting job, and a quarterback I’m considering rostering, Smith is definitely an option. Artavis Scott is also an option to stack with Watson, but it’s going to be tough to make the prices work on that one. Scott is a little overpriced.

As for the non-stack options, Leonte Carroo is a great option at a reduced price tag. His projection is right up there with that of Fuller and Scott, but he is $900 and $1,200 cheaper than them, respectively. Rutgers will face Washington State and their typically high-powered offense (last week excepted) in a game that has a total of 62.5 points in Vegas. Carroo had a hilariously good game in Week 1 catching three passes for 129 yards with all three catches being touchdown catches. He recorded 100+ yards in six games last year and scored 10 touchdowns. He’s one of the better receivers of the slate at a slightly reduced price tag.

On the other side of that Rutgers-WSU game, Dom Williams is the Cougar receiver I like. Williams and Gabe Marks were the preferred receivers for QB Luke Falk last week, catching five and six passes, respectively. Marks is $1,400 more expensive than Williams, and another WSU receiver, River Cracaft, is $1,900 more expensive than Williams. Cracaft is the leading receiver returning from last year’s team, but Williams caught 43 passes and scored nine touchdowns last year, so the price difference between the two isn’t justified.

As for Demarcus Ayers and Amara Darboh, they both put up 100 yards games in Week 1 and are moderate values at their price tags for Week 2. Neither has a fantastic matchup or is playing in a game with a high total in Vegas, so they’re not must plays. But if you have space for a flex play around their price tags, they’re usable options.

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