Below we’ve got a discussion of the starting pitching situation as well as the best teams to use for stacks for Friday’s 15-game slate on DraftKings. We’ve also got projections derived from Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, and we have rankings of the top plays at each position.

Pitching Perspective

Here are our projections for today’s starters. You’ll see each starter’s salary, the average number of fantasy points the starter is projected to score per game and how far above or below average his projection is compared to his salary in the value column. As for the colors, they rank as follows from good to bad: purple, blue, green, yellow, orange, red, burgundy.

It’s obvious that Felix Hernandez ($11,300) is the top starter of the day, the only question is whether he’s worth paying for. According to our model, the price is more than fair given his projection and a well above average matchup against the Twins. Whether that fits with how you like to allocate your budget is up to you, but Felix will be hard to pass up in cash games. But I certainly understand passing on him in tournaments where he’s sure to have a high ownership percentage.

Past Felix, Jon Lester ($8,700) checks in as the pitcher with the second best projection today. He has a slightly above average matchup against the Reds and a nice price tag. Even with a slightly below average matchup, we’d still have Lester’s price tag being too low. His price shoould be at least $500 higher, and he’s a nice value this evening.

Also pitching today is my boy, Phil Hughes ($8,000). Hughes is off to a rough start thanks to an unusually low strikeout rate. His swinging strike rate generally sits around 8.5 percent, but so far this year it’s about half that. He has had less volcity early in the year than he has had in years past, but it’s early enough not to be too worried about that. And even if he is working with a little less velocity, his swinging strike rate shouldn’t be half what it normally is. He’s still showing impeccable control with a ton of first pitch strikes and very few walks. That limits his downside. In a slighty above average matchup against Seattle, I feel fairly safe with Hughes.

If you’re looking for strikeout upside in tournaments, look at Scott Kazmir ($8,500) and Carlos Martinez ($7,200). They have swing and miss stuff and are facing teams that have a tendency to whiff. Their prices don’t quite strike me as right for cash games, but they certainly have upside in GPPs.

If you want to go cheap on pitching today, I’d look at Mat Latos ($6,700) and Josh Collmenter ($5,400). Latos is undeniably terrifying to roster right now, but the projection systems still like him to be closer to what he’s been in past years than he has been in his first few starts. His main problem so far has been a complete inability to get ahead with a first pitch strike percentage of about 44 percent. That has to be an aberration and should rebound fairly quickly. He’s facing Washington who has been a very good matchup for opposing starters so far, so that’s the only reason he might be worth the risk.

As for Collmenter, it’s just a price thing. He has little upside as he strikes almost no one out, but you don’t need much upside to pay off his price tag. He doesn’t walk anyone and keeps the ball in the park reasonably well enough to consider him in good matchups. He’s facing the Pirates who have been the fourth best matchup for opposing starters so far this year.

Stack Options

Let’s start in Colorado since the allure of Coors Field is undeniable. The Rockies will host the Giants, and I’m much more interested in stacking the road team than the home team. Eddie Butler will start for the Rockies, and according to the projections he is projected to allow the most DK points per batter faced to both left and right-handed hitters of any pitcher going today. As usual DK has jacked up the prices of hitters playing in Colorado, but the Giants don’t have a ton of studs, so a Giants stack won’t cost you as much as some other Coors stacks have this year. What should be the first five in the San Francisco lineup are all options for stacking and can be combined however fits your roster. Those five are Nori Aoki ($4,400, OF), Joe Panik ($3,900, 2B/SS), Angel Pagan ($4,600, OF), Buster Posey ($5,000, C) and Brandon Belt ($4,900, 1B).

The other pitchers to pick on today are Miguel Gonzalez and Aaron Harang who are facing the Red Sox and the Braves, respectively.

The O’s-Sox game is in Baltimore which has one of the better home run park factors in the league for left-handed hitters. For that reason, David Ortiz ($4,600, 1B) and Pablo Sandoval ($4,500, 3B) have a good chance to go deep today. I also like Brock Holt ($3,200, 3B/OF) as a salary relief option if he happens to be in the lineup today. Hanley Ramirez ($5,000, SS/OF), Mookie Betts ($4,500, OF) and Dustin Pedroia ($4,200, 2B) can also be used to fill out a Boston stack.

The Braves-Phillies game is in Philly, which is also a good home run park for left-handed hitters. For that reason, I really like Freddie Freeman ($4,300, 1B) today. Nick Markakis ($3,400, OF) has a really nice price tag and makes for a nice partner in a mini-stack with Freeman. If you need further salary relief, Alberto Callaspo ($2,700, 2B/3B) should hit second in front of Markakis/Freeman.

If you want to get contrarion, I could see using Cleveland left-handers against Shane Greene. Greene has been super hot, so I imagine he’ll see a decent chunk of ownership tonight, and people might shy away from Indians. It’s just a GPP play, but the Tribe are a lefty-heavy lineup that was very tough on right-handers last year.

You can download our hitter projections here. These projections are a per game average of what each hitter is projected to do a per game basis against pitchers of the particular handedness they will be facing today.

Player Rankings

Catcher

1. Carlos Santana – $4,400 – Cleveland Indians
2. Buster Posey – $5,000 – San Francisco Giants
3. Salvador Perez – $3,700 – Kansas City Royals
4. Miguel Montero – $3,100 – Chicago Cubs

First Base

1. Freddie Freeman – $4,300 – Atlanta Braves
2. David Ortiz – $4,600 – Boston Red Sox
3. Albert Pujols – $4,300 – Los Angeles Angels

Second Base

1. Jason Kipnis – $4,400 – Cleveland Indians
2. Dustin Pedroia – $4,200 – Boston Red Sox
3. Jose Altuve – $4,800 – Houston Astros
4. Johnny Giavotella – $2,900 – Los Angeles Angels

Third Base

1. Kris Bryant – $4,600 – Chicago Cubs
2. Evan Longoria – $4,000 – Tampa Bay Rays
3. Pablo Sandoval – $4,500 – Boston Red Sox
4. Brock Holt – $3,200 – Boston Red Sox

Shortstop

1. Hanley Ramirez – $5,000 – Boston Red Sox
2. Starlin Castro – $3,900 – Chicago Cubs
3. Marcus Semien – $3,900 – Oakland Athletics
4. Jose Ramirez – $3,300 – Cleveland Indians

Outfield

1. Mike Trout – $5,400 – Los Angeles Angels
2. Mookie Betts – $4,500 – Boston Red Sox
3. Michael Brantley – $4,700 – Cleveland Indians
4. George Springer – $4,200 – Houston Astros
5. Angel Pagan – $4,600 – San Francisco Giants
6. Yoenis Cespedes – $4,400 – Detroit Tigers
7. Nick Markakis – $3,400 – Atlanta Braves

Starting Pitcher

1. Felix Hernandez – $11,300 – Seattle Mariners
2. Jon Lester – $8,700 – Chicago Cubs
3. Phil Hughes – $8,000 – Minnesota Twins
4. Mat Latos – $6,700 – Miami Marlins
5. Josh Collmenter – $5,400 – Arizona Diamondbacks